113
FXUS66 KMTR 010536
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
936 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
   substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.

 - Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.

 - Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
   of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
   our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(This evening through Monday)

Subtle day-to-day change to start the week with Tule fog present
again today across the delta and the interior East Bay, as well as
persistent stratus across parts of the North Bay. Expecting this
trend to improve going into Monday as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the NE. Many locations may start the day with
clouds and fog Monday morning, but anticipating a much better
afternoon with clearing taking place earlier in the day. There is
a chance of a light burst of offshore flow in the North Bay
overnight tonight with breezy winds up to 20-30 mph along the
interior high terrain. As such, high temps Monday are likely to
be a few degrees warmer than today for these North Bay locations
that have been in the soup for the last several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Quiet through the early week, but high likelihood of gusty
offshore winds in across the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
Mtns beginning early Wednesday morning. The stubborn high
amplitude ridge to our west promotes a deep inside slider system
digging into the Great Basin by midweek. The main impact from the
winds will be the drying that will occur due the dry, continental
nature of the airmass moving in behind the system, as well as a
bit of compressional heating due to downslope flow. Daytime
minimum RH in the 35 to 45% range can be anticipated across the
interior North Bay, East Bay Hills and interior, Eastern Santa
Clara, and the Santa Cruz Mtns. The RH range can also be expected
across the Santa Lucia and higher terrain of San Benito county,
but winds aren`t likely to be as gusty here. In the aforementioned
gusty areas, NE winds with gusts to 25-35 can be expected, with
localized gusts up to 45 along the higher ridgetops. Offshore
pressure gradient peaks late morning Wednesday, so we can
reasonably anticipate winds winding down into the afternoon hours
with a more neutral pressure gradient restored by the overnight
hours into Thursday morning.

Beyond the Wednesday system, we return to a quiet, benign pattern
into the weekend. By the weekend, there are some hints at things
finally getting more interesting for us as the Pacific jet starts
to ramp up over eastern Asia and the western Pacific. What this
means for us is beyond the 7 day outlook and still holds some
uncertainty. However, this looks like this the potential start to
our next "active" pattern through the middle of the month. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Generally an
optimistic persistence forecast on tap. Fog/stratus will continue to
be advected into Bay Area terminals tonight with an earlier clearing
time tomorrow thanks to true offshore flow developing. The effects
of high clouds overhead are going to be the wild card tonight. They
seem too thin to stop fog/stratus expansion, but it may be enough
to slow it down and not have the poorest flight conditions last
as long. Slant range visibilities will be reduced due to haze.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with northerly flow. A very
generous BKN low-end MVFR ceiling is being reported. Satellite
imagery shows it being on the western side of the terminal and not
expanding much. Conditions will likely teeter on the edge of IFR/MVFR
if a true ceiling does develop. Northeasterly winds will prevail
through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR
prevailing through the TAF period at both terminals if fog is not
able to be advected up the Salinas Valley with the help of drainage
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail Monday through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine
conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase
to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough.
Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and
moderate seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Tuesday evening with a
very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties.
Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the
vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
     CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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