091
FXUS63 KOAX 111042
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 40% chance for scattered showers across far northeast
  Nebraska this morning and again tonight. Expect southeasterly
  wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph throughout the day.

- More chances for scattered showers and storms Sunday morning
  and evening as a front moves through. Gusty winds of 30-40 mph will
  also continue.

- Cooler temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in
  the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features pronounced troughing
pushing further through the Pacific Northwest with ridging across
the central CONUS and a couple of shortwave troughs across the
eastern Great Lakes and over northern Florida. Zooming in locally,
mid/upper mass fields are beginning to turn southwesterly as the
intruding trough to the west moves closer to the area. Embedded in
the southwesterly flow are a few shortwaves that are helping to
develop showers and even a few rumbles of thunder across north-
central Nebraska. As the southwesterly flow spreads over the area,
so to will those showers, clipping most of northeast Nebraska with
chances for rain and a stray rumble of thunder (15-40%) though 4 PM,
as better chances are curbed by dry mid-to-lower levels.
Southwesterly winds that are already in place for northeast Nebraska
will overspread the rest of the forecast area, with clouds stunting
any efficient heating and limiting boundary-layer depth. Despite
this, the shallow boundary layer will be able to tap into an
increasing winds and help gusts reach into the 25-35 mph range with
the highest gust values across northeastern into central Nebraska.
Extreme fire danger is not expected today with winds failing to
reach critical thresholds that pair with minimum RH values in the 40-
50% range.

Early Sunday will see additional 15-30% rain chances push into
northeast Nebraska as a warm front moves into the forecast area
underneath increasing mid/upper jet support and decreasing mid/upper
heights. By sunrise, those will have moved to the northeast and a
cold front will be on our doorstep to the west across central
Nebraska, poised to sweep across through the evening hours. As it
does, a narrow zone of warm temperatures will help highs reach
the mid-80s (normal for Oct 12 is 68 degrees), and deeper
mixing ushers gusts of 30-40 mph to the surface. That deeper
mixing will dry out the low levels to the point where no
surface-based storms would be possible along the sweeping cold
front, but a few elevated showers and storms rooted at 700 mb
are on the table that could tap into the 100-300 J/kg. That line
of isolated to scattered showers and storms (30% chance) should
develop after 4 PM Sunday and move southeastward before exiting
to the southeast by midnight. No severe weather or flooding is
expected with even the strongest of these showers/storms.

Monday and Beyond:

In the wake of the cold front that brings Sunday`s precipitation
chances, temperatures will respond in kind with highs resembling
that fall crispness that we`ve only really felt in the mornings and
evenings. Monday should top out right around normal in the the mid-
to-upper 60s, with an even cooler dip to right around 60 degrees for
most of the area Tuesday driven by rain chances embedded in the
strong southwesterly flow aloft. We`ll begin warming Wednesday
through the remainder of the week as the upper pattern transitions a
positively-tilted to a more neutral orientation as it spins over the
Pacific Coast, allowing heights to build over the Central Plains.
While it builds, a few mid/upper shortwaves will bring minor rain
chances to portions of the area, though most should stay dry.
Deterministic models depict the Pacific Coast trough surging
eastward across the forecast area Saturday/Sunday, plunging
southward some of the coolest temperatures we have seen since
spring and giving us a true taste of fall weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Winds are already in the process of becoming more southeasterly,
with increasing wind speeds and gusts expected to arrive by late
morning/early afternoon. The strongest winds are expected to be
at the KOFK terminal at near 30 kts, while KOMA/KLNK reach 20-25
kts. Light showers are currently moving across north-central
Nebraska and should stay to the north and west of KOFK as well.
Gusts should last into the overnight period, becoming more
sporadic as strong winds at FL015 reach 45 to 50 kts out of the
south-southwest, resulting in low level wind shear.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen