511
FXUS63 KOAX 132056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and potentially record-breaking temperatures
  for Friday.

- Very high fire danger in portions of eastern Nebraska Friday
  afternoon.

- A medium chance (30-50%) of precipitation on Monday. There is
  a high chance (70-90%) this precipitation remains as rain, but
  a low (10-20%) chance that northern portions of the area may
  see a mix of snow during the morning and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A large mid-level ridge remains situated over the Rocky Mountains
this afternoon. Quiet and warm weather can be expected this
afternoon as a result. Temperatures are quickly climbing into the
upper 60s and lowers 70s this afternoon under plentiful sunshine.
Tonight sees clear skies and light winds with temperatures largely
in the 40s by sunrise. Better moisture will begin to move back into
the region during this time. This increasing moisture may lead to
the development of patchy fog across portions of southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward, becoming centered
over the Great Plains. This is expected to set the stage for an
unseasonably warm Friday afternoon. Warm southwesterly winds and
mostly clear skies push many locations well into the 70s to near 80
for a few locations west of a line from about Norfolk to Lincoln.
With such warm temperatures, records may be broken for many
observing sites across the area. Currently, Norfolk is expected to
reach 78 F, smashing the previous record of 72 F set in 2001.
Similarly, Lincoln is forecast to reach 77 F breaking the record of
75 F set in 1990. Omaha may get close to record temperatures with a
high near 74 F. This may fall just shy of the previous record of 76
set in 1964. Outside of this warmth, dry conditions and stronger
winds result in very high fire danger for portions of eastern
Nebraska tomorrow as well.

This weekend sees a deepening trough move southeast out of Canada
into the Great Lakes and New England. This pushes a cold front south
through the region dropping temperatures a little on Saturday. That
said, above normal temperatures well into the 60s are anticipated.
No rain is to be expected with this cold front as the trough keeps
any large-scale support north of the region. Temperatures cool
further on Sunday with mid 50s and lower 60s for many.

Out next weather system is set to arrive early next week, likely on
Monday. Current forecast guidance is a bit split on the overall
outcome of this system. Many ensembles lift the trough out of the
Four Corners towards our region. This outcome keeps any
precipitation as rain with only a few snowflakes possible across our
northern counties. The GEFS, on the other hand, has a colder
solution as it keeps the trough stronger and passes it south of the
area. In this scenario, light snow with slushy accumulations may
materialize, especially during the morning and evening hours. In
either event, there is a medium chance (30-50%) of precipitation
across the region with a low chance (10-20%) of snow mixing in
across our north. Temperatures come out cooler on Monday with cloud
cover and precipitation from this system as many only climb into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. These temperatures will fluctuate a bit as
the exact track of our next system becomes clearer. The colder
temperatures are expected to remain in place ahead of the next
weather system arriving sometime towards the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.
Other than a few high cirrus this afternoon, clear skies and
southwesterly winds with weak gusts are expected. After sunset,
winds shift to southerly and become light. Fog may develop
across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by
morning. Fog remains southeast of OFK and confidence is low on
fog reaching LNK. OMA may have a few hours of fog with
visibility expected to fall to MVFR, though brief IFR conditions
could materialize also. Any fog clears by mid to late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak