578
FXUS64 KOHX 090436
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1036 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1021 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Look for warmer temperatures and breezy conditions on Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

- Colder air will arrive by the weekend, although expected
  temperatures won`t be nearly as frigid as previously thought.

- Rain chances through the weekend will be very low. There are
  somewhat better rain chances next weekend, but 7-day QPF values
  are less than 1/4" across all of Middle Tennessee

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

High pressure over the Great Lakes is the dominant feature
affecting our weather this evening. A surface ridge situated to
our west will shift eastward by tomorrow morning, and all
indications are that we can expect a break in what has seemed like
a perpetual overcast, particularly during the afternoon.
Temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be several degrees warmer
than what we have been experiencing as we pick up some much-needed
return flow. A cold front is expected to sweep across Middle
Tennessee on Wednesday, although rain chances are very low owing
to a paucity of antecedent moisture. Still, temperatures will drop
back down starting Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A second cold front is poised to push across the region on Friday
and Friday evening, and this one is going to be painful, as
temperatures are likely to bottom out several degrees below
seasonal norms this weekend (although not as frigid as what the
NBM was suggesting 24 hours ago). Still, look for light rain to
develop late Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday. Obviously,
we will have to monitor for possible wintry weather since
temperatures will drop below freezing Sunday morning, with daytime
highs on Sunday possibly not even making it out of the 30s.
Slightly better rain chances look to impact Middle Tennessee early next
week, along with warmer temperatures, although 7-day QPF values are
rather anemic. While the 6-10 day outlook continues to favor
below normal temperatures, the 8-14 day outlook suggests a warmer
pattern for cold-weary Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The 00Z sounding from OHX showed a nearly-saturated boundary
layer up to ~900 mb, but even that seems to be thinning out as the
clearing line continues to crawl eastward. So the terminals
should scattered out (or at least go VFR) between now and 12Z,
with VFR conditions prevailing tomorrow. Expect surface winds to
increase from the SSW by midday as a ridge of high pressure
shifts to our east and initiates some much-needed return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      27  51  40  56 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    26  50  40  54 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     22  45  34  49 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       26  49  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     24  46  36  51 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      23  46  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   25  49  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   25  49  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        26  48  38  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose