685
FXUS64 KOHX 241727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1127 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through Tuesday.
  There is a very low chance of severe storms Tuesday morning into
  early afternoon.

- Low to medium chance for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 30-40
  mph overnight into Tuesday morning.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A prominent shortwave disturbance and associated surface low are
currently sitting across the Central and Southern Plains. A zone
of southwesterly, diffluent flow aloft now resides across the
Tennessee Valley as the system moves gradually east. Upper-level
clouds are increasing in coverage as tropospheric moisture
increases and some rain showers are now moving into western TN.

Rain chances will steadily increase from the west today as low-
level moisture continues to advect into the area. Rain showers
will become more widespread tonight, especially after midnight,
with the approaching area of pre-frontal convection moving out of
the lower Mississippi Valley. Only a few embedded rumbles of
thunder are possible due to pockets of elevated instability. The
main thing we`re looking into for possible impacts are gusty non-
thunderstorm winds due to a mesoscale pressure gradient moving
into Middle Tennessee behind the first batch of rain/convection.
There`s increasing evidence in guidance for wind gusts of 30-40
mph overnight into Tuesday morning, potentially higher.

Severe weather probabilities continue to remain very low.
Surface-based instability is still emerging amongst guidance
Tuesday morning with the synoptic cold front still lagging west of
I-65. Considering favorable deep-layer wind shear and some
instability near/ahead of the front, a strong/severe storm cannot
be ruled out and it`s mainly a damaging wind threat we`re
messaging at this time. Overall weather conditions will improve
throughout Tuesday afternoon behind the front and it will
certainly turn cooler Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

We will shift to drier, much cooler weather across Middle
Tennessee Wednesday through Friday thanks to a longwave upper
trough encompassing much of the central and eastern CONUS along
with a reinforcing cold front. We continue to advertise lows in
the 20s and 30s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights as a result
and day time temperatures will remain below normal. Thursday
night will be the coldest of the forecast period with a widespread
hard freeze expected. Height rises and airmass modification are
expected by the weekend with transitioning flow aloft with the
pattern favoring a developing trough across the West. Rain chances
return the forecast, mainly Sunday into Monday

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail through this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will move into the area starting around 00Z and
continue into early Tuesday morning. Confidence in thunderstorms at
TAF locations was too low to include mention at this time. Southerly
winds will also strengthen overnight into Tuesday morning with gusts
of 20 to 30 knots likely. Rain coverage will decrease west of the
Plateau through the morning, but MVFR cigs will return areawide
after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  57  72  46 /  20  90  80  20
Clarksville    66  56  69  42 /  40 100  80  10
Crossville     64  52  64  44 /   0  80  90  60
Columbia       71  56  71  46 /  30  90  80  20
Cookeville     67  55  67  45 /  10  80 100  60
Jamestown      65  52  65  44 /   0  80  90  60
Lawrenceburg   71  56  70  47 /  20  90  90  30
Murfreesboro   71  57  71  47 /  20  90  90  30
Waverly        66  55  68  42 /  50 100  80  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements