796
FXUS64 KOHX 110527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1127 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Low chance for snow across the Upper Cumberland Plateau tonight
  through early Thursday morning. Accumulations expected to be
  less than a half inch.

- Another cold front will impact the region this weekend, bringing
  the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through
  Monday morning, with widespread lows in the teens to single
  digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 102025

With an upper-level trough tracking through the Ohio Valley, a cold
front has made it through Middle TN. Breezy northerly to
northwesterly winds are in place behind the front, but these
should continue to diminish overnight. There is a low chance for
snow showers across the upper Plateau with favorable upslope flow
in place. A big limiting factor though is the amount of moisture
available. This evening`s 00Z sounding still shows a lot of dry
air, particularly above -10C. Model soundings across the Plateau
show a similar story as well with the lack of moisture. Recent CAM
runs have backed off on the snow potential tonight with only a
low 10-20% chance of accumulations greater than a half inch in the
higher elevations.

Any light showers overnight will diminish by early Thursday morning,
and in the wake of the front, a cooler day will be in store as highs
only warm into the 40s with upper-30s along the Plateau. A shortwave
tracks through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. The bulk of the
moisture and precipitation still looks to stay to our north with
just a low chance (20-30%) for additional snow showers maintained
in the forecast for the Plateau near the KY border. Little if any
accumulations are expected before any showers end by early Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Highs on Friday will warm into the 50s, but don`t get used to it. A
cold front will dive south, bringing a blast of the coldest air of
the season so far for this weekend. Saturday night, lows will
drop into the teens with highs on Sunday only making into the 20s.
Temperatures fall into the teens and even single digits again
Sunday night. Temperatures won`t warm back up above freezing
again until around noon on Monday. This means that the area will
have about 36 consecutive hours of temperatures below freezing.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation Saturday night
with a shortwave clipping our area to the north. The forecast this
evening has a low chance (15-30%) for precipitation Saturday night,
and with temperatures plummeting during this time frame,
precipitation type would be snow or even a wintry mix before
temperatures are able to fall completely below freezing. Models are
in wide disagreement over precipitation chances, and as such,
probabilities for any impactful accumulations at this time are very
low.

Surface winds turn southerly again on Monday, allowing temperatures
to rebound back into the 40s and 50s next week. As far as our next
chance of rain, that looks to come on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR cigs right around 030 have stayed in place most of tonight,
and latest models are keeping this the case through the overnight,
so am going with a VFR taf at BNA, MQY, and CKV. MVFR cigs can be
expected at CSV and SRB through late morning. Northwest winds are
relaxing and will be between 6 to 8 kts overnight. A gradual wind
shift to the south will occur after 21Z with speeds around 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      27  45  37  57 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    26  44  36  53 /  10  10  10   0
Crossville     25  39  30  51 /  10  10  10   0
Columbia       26  47  35  57 /  10   0  10   0
Cookeville     25  40  32  52 /  10  10  20   0
Jamestown      25  37  30  50 /  20  10  30   0
Lawrenceburg   25  46  34  58 /  10   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   26  45  35  57 /  10  10  10   0
Waverly        26  44  36  54 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett