315
FXUS64 KOHX 011716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1116 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- There are low to medium chances for light snowfall accumulations
  mainly north of I-40 Monday night and early Tuesday, especially
  northwest Middle Tennessee. Chances for 1" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for the next
  several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Some high clouds out there right now on satellite across Middle
Tennessee. Radiational cooling should be a bit more successful
tonight, with lows getting into the low 20s and possibly even the
teens on the Cumberland Plateau.

An inverted trough will be entering the mid-state from the south
tomorrow afternoon, which will bring a large swath of precipitation
across the area through Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Guidance is
showing that we will start off this afternoon/evening with cold
rain, and transition into a wintry precipitation situation overnight
and into Tuesday morning in some areas. Mixed precipitation
continues to be a possibility, but probabilities continue. Right
now, the area north of I-40 looks to be the most likely to receive
this mixed/wintry precipitation. Probabilities of at least 0.01" of
freezing rain, so not a lot but still enough to cause some problems,
are less than 20%. This is a decent drop from the higher
probabilities in the models yesterday evening. Snow totals have also
dropped for this event, with expected snow totals right now under
half an inch. The area remains north of I-40 for those most likely
to see snow, with probabilities for over half an inch around 20 -
40% north of I-40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The pattern after this system will remain active in Middle
Tennessee. Another system will end our brief cold and dry period,
which will bring more precipitation to the mid-state. Looks like it
could be another mixed precipitation event as well, so we will
continue to monitor these tricky systems in the forecast. Below-
normal temperatures look to persist through the forecast period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions expected through 02-03Z for all terminals, but
there will be a big fall-off to MVFR and quickly to IFR as our
next weather maker enters the area this evening. -RA will be the
main precip until 08-09Z when a short change over to -SN/IP will
occur at CKV/BNA/MQY on the backside of the precip. Less certain
on the changeover for CSV/SRB, covered with PROB30 after 12Z/Tue.

Winds will be light (10 kts or less) but shift around to the
northwest after 06Z/Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  32  38  24 /  30 100  10   0
Clarksville    43  29  36  21 /  30  90  10   0
Crossville     46  32  36  20 /  10  90  40   0
Columbia       47  32  39  21 /  50 100  10   0
Cookeville     49  32  36  22 /  10 100  40   0
Jamestown      46  30  35  22 /  10 100  40   0
Lawrenceburg   48  32  38  21 /  50 100  10   0
Murfreesboro   49  32  38  21 /  30 100  10   0
Waverly        44  29  36  21 /  40  90  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger