224
FXUS64 KOHX 240431
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1031 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1014 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. Monday for
  northern and northwest Middle Tennessee.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Monday night and
  Tuesday. There is a very low chance of severe storms early
  Tuesday, mainly south of I-40.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for northern and northwest
portions of Middle Tennessee until 10 a.m. Monday. A swath of
dense fog and low stratus has crept into northwest Middle
Tennessee, and is likely to expand further into the mid state.
Widespread visibilities of 1/4 mile or less are expected in the
advisory area. Synoptically, surface high pressure and an upper
ridge will slide across the region overnight and early Monday,
which will set us up with some return flow just ahead of an
approaching low pressure system that is currently gathering steam
over the Great Plains. As this system tracks toward the east, we
can expect showers to begin spreading into Middle Tennessee late
tomorrow and certainly tomorrow evening. Some convective
development is also possible late Monday night and early Tuesday
as a pre-frontal trough provides some additional forcing. There is
a marginal risk of severe storms for early Tuesday in areas south
of I-40, but it appears that the best chance for any sort of wind
threat will remain south of Middle Tennessee. QPF totals from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening range from less than 3/4"
near the TN/KY line to more than 1" near the TN/AL line, and the
19Z NBM is giving a 64% probability of at least 1" of rainfall at
BNA Monday night and Tuesday. The actual cold fropa is likely to
occur late Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with significantly cooler
temperatures filtering in behind the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 935 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Temperatures are going to nosedive just in time for Thanksgiving.
Minimum temperatures Thursday morning will likely fall into the
mid 20s to low 30s, and in the 20s across all of Middle Tennessee
Friday morning before we start to warm back up. The next active
weather system looks to bring rain to Middle Tennessee beginning
Saturday or Saturday night, and continuing into the following
week. At this time, the 19Z NBM is hinting at a significant, days-
long rainfall event that definitely warrants keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dense fog has settled into CKV and will remain through the early
to mid morning. There is a lot of uncertainty how far south the
fog will make it and if it will impact BNA/MQY. At this point, it
looks like there is a low to medium chance fog does impact
BNA/MQY. Models have backed off on fog developing at CSV/SRB. For
the terminals impacted by fog, VFR conditions are expected to
return by 15-16z. Some showers could impact CKV/BNA/MQY from
around 00z and onward. Calm winds will increase to 5 kts during
the morning and remain for the rest of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  69  58  71 /   0  20  90  80
Clarksville    43  66  56  70 /   0  40  90  80
Crossville     39  64  52  63 /   0   0  80 100
Columbia       42  70  57  72 /   0  20  90  90
Cookeville     41  67  54  66 /   0  10  90 100
Jamestown      40  64  52  65 /   0   0  80 100
Lawrenceburg   41  71  57  70 /   0  10  90 100
Murfreesboro   41  71  57  70 /   0  20  90 100
Waverly        43  66  54  69 /   0  40  90  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for TNZ005>010-023-024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan