375
FXUS64 KOHX 191511
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
911 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Medium (40-60%) chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
  overnight, tapering off early Wednesday morning.

- High chances (60-100%) for rain and thunderstorms Thursday
  through Friday night.

- Above-normal temperatures continuing, possibly turning much
  colder around Thanksgiving.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A surface boundary is in the process of inching its way southward
through Middle Tennessee, with winds starting to turn northerly
at some of our stations. Rain chances today are minuscule, despite
the surface boundary. Temperatures will warm up quite nicely by
the afternoon, especially those areas south of I-40 that will be
exposed to the pre-frontal environment the longest. Look for areas
of fog to develop again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A shortwave and weak low pressure system moving across the region
will bring scattered showers and a few storms overnight. A couple
of severe storms with large hail occurred northwest of our area
Tuesday evening, but stable boundary layer air will keep any
storms well-behaved in our area overnight. Other than some early
morning straggling showers on the Plateau, Wednesday should be
rain-free with clouds slowly decreasing from west to east under
building high pressure. This system did not bring a cold front
passage, so temperatures will remain mild with highs 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

Wednesday night will be mild with above normal humidity for this
time of year. Light winds and partial clearing will allow areas of
fog to form.

The next system, bigger and stronger, will come ot of the
southwest states with at least a couple of big waves of deep
moisture. the first big wave will develop Thursday morning with
widespread rainy conditions by Thursday afternoon lasting into the
evening. There may be some breaks in the rain late Thursday night
before the next wave. Temperatures will stay mild with deep
southwest flow ahead of the low pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

More rain is expected Friday through Friday evening. Mild
conditions will continue with strengthening southwest winds. There
may be enough instability coming up from our southwest by late
Friday for a few strong storms with enhanced gusty winds, but
that energy could instead enhance rainfall rates. This will depend
on the track of the surface low. We will have to wait and see.
The rain should taper down late Friday night through Saturday
morning. By the time rain ends, 48 hour totals between 1 and 2
inches will be common.

The wx will settle down for Sunday into Monday, but the next
southwestern system will be on approach with more rain and storms
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Models are suggesting a pattern change around Thanksgiving with
potential for an Arctic cold front to end our mild pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A stratus deck has settled into the area with all taf sites
expected to be MVFR/IFR through the morning. The stratus will
dissipate around 18z with VFR conditions returning. The clouds are
expected to hold on until 20-21z at CSV. There will be ample low
level moisture in the area overnight with the models hinting at
the possibility of low clouds and fog after 06z. Confidence is
highest at CSV/SRB so fog was mentioned in the tafs. Winds will
be WNW to N around 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  69  59 /   0  10  50 100
Clarksville    69  49  66  58 /   0  10  70  90
Crossville     68  48  68  56 /  20   0  20 100
Columbia       76  52  73  60 /   0  10  50  90
Cookeville     70  51  68  57 /  20  10  30 100
Jamestown      67  49  66  55 /  20  10  20 100
Lawrenceburg   76  52  74  59 /   0   0  40  80
Murfreesboro   75  52  72  59 /   0  10  50 100
Waverly        70  51  68  58 /   0  10  70 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan