521
FXUS64 KOHX 201130
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
530 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- High rain chances across Middle Tennessee Thursday afternoon
  through Friday night.

- Another high chance for rain late Monday through Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures lasting into early next week, then turning
  sharply colder by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low clouds and areas of fog will be in place overnight into
Thursday morning as a few showers begin to develop ahead of the
next big wx system. Some areas may have dense fog, but uncertain
how widespread that will be. Temperatures will be mild for this
time of year with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Deep, moist southwest flow will cause rain to spread across the
area Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening. A few
rumbles of thunder may be heard, but no strong thunderstorms are
expected. Some breaks in the rain will occur Thursday night, but
rain will become widespread again Friday as a deep upper low
pressure system moves out of the southwest states toward our
area. By the time the bulk of the rain moves out of our area late
Friday night, most locations will have received 1" to 1.50".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Post-frontal showers will taper off Saturday with a drier and
slightly cooler (but still above normal) period from midday
Saturday through Sunday. Then, another similar looking system will
come in for Monday through Tuesday with another soaking, roughly
1" rainfall. Once again, some storms will be possible, but we are
not looking for severe wx.

Following the rainy system next week, a major pattern change will
occur with an Arctic front bringing much colder air by
Thanksgiving with cold conditions for the next weekend heading
into the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low ceilings and reduced visibilities will continue to impact the
terminals during the taf period. The LIFR/IFR visibilities are
expected to improve by 15z but IFR/MVFR cigs will remain. Showers
will move into the terminals after 18z. Shower coverage will
decrease again after 00-03z but low chances will remain for the
overnight hours. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to develop again
overnight. Winds will be 5 kts or less for the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  60  73  59 / 100  90  80  90
Clarksville    65  58  72  56 / 100 100  90  90
Crossville     68  57  68  57 /  70  90  90  90
Columbia       72  60  73  60 / 100  80  90  80
Cookeville     67  58  70  58 /  80 100  80  90
Jamestown      66  56  69  56 /  70 100  80 100
Lawrenceburg   73  60  72  61 /  90  70  90  80
Murfreesboro   69  60  73  61 /  90  90  90  90
Waverly        65  58  71  57 / 100  90  90  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan