415
FXUS61 KPHI 140604
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
104 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly shift eastward into the area through
Saturday. Low pressure will approach the area Saturday night,
with a warm front passing through the area. A cold front will
move through on Sunday. A few reinforcing shots of cool air
arrive Sunday into Monday. A weak disturbance should track to
the south of the region Tuesday, keeping conditions somewhat
unsettled. Otherwise, high pressure will gradually build in to
the area through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will build
towards the Southeast by this afternoon, then sags into the
eastern Gulf Coast states tonight. Meanwhile, an H5 trough over
the Northeast pulls away this evening and mid-level ridging
builds into western zones by daybreak Saturday.

Several strong shortwaves will pass through the region
throughout the day today and into tonight. While some snow
showers may continue to pass through the southern Poconos and
higher elevation of far northwest New Jersey, for the most part,
any spurts of precipitation will be a few sprinkles or
flurries. Dry conditions otherwise. These shortwaves will result
in partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, then skies
clear out tonight.

Gusty northwest winds will develop over the area, though winds
will not be nearly as strong as they were on Thursday, generally
averaging 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts. Winds diminish
this evening with loss of diurnal heating, and will become
nearly calm late tonight as mid-level ridging builds into the
region.

Another seasonably chilly day on tap with highs in the low to
mid 50s, though a few degrees cooler in the higher elevations of
the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for most of southeast
Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the mid to upper 30s in
Delmarva. While winds will become nearly calm late tonight,
there may still be enough clouds to keep optimal radiational
cooling conditions from developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Initially, the region will be located between a trough
departing to the east and a closed low over northern Manitoba
moving southeastward. As the trough to the east departs fully,
the upper- low over Manitoba will shift southeastward into
Quebec by Sunday morning. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent will
overspread the region beginning Saturday afternoon and
continuing through Sunday morning as we will be located in the
exit region of the cyclonically curved jet associated with the
upper-low. The upper-low will shift into northern portions of
New England through the day Sunday, with height rises and
enhanced northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday night. At the
surface, high pressure will be present initially with lowering
pressures through the day Saturday as a surface cyclone tracks
from the Northern Great Lakes into New England by Sunday
morning. A warm front will lift northeastward through the region
Saturday night, followed by a cold front Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. High pressure will quickly begin to build back
in Sunday night behind the cold front.

Skies may be partly cloudy Saturday morning, but cloud cover
will increase through the day, with most of the region being
overcast by the afternoon and evening hours. Light rain may
begin to move into portions of eastern PA and northern NJ,
mainly along and northwest of I-95, by sunset. North of I-78
where cloud cover sets in sooner, high temperatures generally in
the low-mid 50s are expected. South of I-78, highs should be in
the upper 50s to near 60. Rainfall will be most widespread
Saturday night, with PoPs ranging from 40-60% across the
Delmarva and southern NJ generally south of the Philly metro, to
70-90% for the Philly metro and northward. Model soundings
across the area feature some modest elevated instability, so a
rumble of thunder or two will be possible. While rain is
expected, significant amounts are unlikely, and still generally
appear to be under 0.25", and highest for northern portions of
the area. Warm advection will be ongoing through much of the
night Saturday night, so lows will be fairly warm. Temperatures
may not fall out of the 50s for the Philly metro southward, with
temps in the low-mid 40s north. Rain chances will continue
through the first half or so of Sunday, tapering off from west
to east as a cold front approaches and moves through. Where the
cold front clears earlier, highs may struggle to reach 50. This
would be across our northern eastern PA counties and far
northern NJ. Across the remainder of the area, upper 50s to near
60 will be likely once again.

After the cold front clears the area by Sunday afternoon,
breezy northwesterly winds will set in. Wind gusts in the 30-35
mph range will be likely. Otherwise, skies will clear from west
to east. Under mostly clear skies and with cold advection
occurring behind the front, low temperatures will be noticeably
cooler Sunday night, with a freeze expected across the higher
terrain of the Poconos and into far northern NJ. Mid-upper 30s
are expected elsewhere.

While not currently explicitly forecast, guidance is in fairly
good agreement that this northwesterly flow regime behind the
front Sunday into Sunday night could lead to some lake effect
snow to the northwest of the area. It is not entirely out of the
question that a snow shower or two could make it into far
northern portions of the area, and this will continue to be
monitored in future forecast cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Height rises and slowly weakening flow aloft will continue
through the day Monday. On Tuesday, a weak impulse will track
eastward out of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions and should
pass to the south of the area by Tuesday evening as it phases
with the primary trough exiting our area. Northwesterly flow
will continue through mid-week with only a few weak potential
impulses glancing the area. At the surface, the general trend
will be for high pressure to slowly continue to build in. A weak
surface low will pass to the south of the area on Tuesday
associated with the mid-level impulse.

Monday into Monday night should feature partly to mostly clear
skies. On Tuesday, widespread cloud cover is expected across the
entire area, with a little light precipitation. Slight chance
PoPs are present across the entire area, but 30-40% PoPs are
limited to along and south of I-78. There is an outside chance
that precipitation could start as a rain/snow mix especially
towards I- 78, but it looks like mostly rain. In any event,
amounts currently look quite light.

Wednesday and Thursday currently look dry but mostly cloudy
across the area. Below average temperatures are expected to
continue through the long term, with highs generally in the 40s
and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Today...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt with
20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt
after 21Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming light and variable
by 03Z or so. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (around 20%) of light
rain late for the westernmost terminals.

Saturday night through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions
will be possible in periods of rain and low ceilings through
around midday Sunday. Northwest winds Sunday afternoon with
gusts 20-30 kt possible.

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. No significant
weather.

Tuesday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions
cannot be ruled out in light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE have subsided
to sub-Small Craft Advisory levels with winds at Buoy 44009
generally 10 to 15 kt. Will go ahead and cancel the SCA that was
in effect until 6 am.

SCA remains in effect for the coastal waters from Cape Henlopen
DE north to Sandy Hook NJ today. West to northwest winds will
average 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds begin to
diminish late this afternoon, then sub-SCA conditions tonight.

West to northwest winds will be below SCA criteria on Delaware Bay
today, averaging 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

North to northwest winds around 10 kt on all waters tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated with winds below 25
kt and seas below 5 feet.

Saturday night through Monday...Marine headlines are likely.
Saturday night southerly wind will increase to 20-25 kt. Sunday,
winds will shift to northwesterly at 20-30 kt. Winds look to
remain enhanced through Monday. While uncertain, there remains a
possibility for a period of gales Sunday into Monday. Seas
increasing to 4-7 feet.

Monday night...Lingering SCA conditions possible, but winds and
seas will generally be on the decline.

Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated with winds below 25
kt and seas below 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>454.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/RCM
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/MPS
MARINE...Cooper/MPS