894
FXUS65 KPIH 161106
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
406 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather with low confidence of timing and amount for
  any location today through Tuesday night.

- Cooler temperatures, but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation is less, generally, starting Tuesday,
  and continuing low for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Weak warm front entered the southern half of the forecast area,
but has produced very little in terms of clouds and
precipitation, but has kept temperatures mild over that region,
which extends from east of Pocatello over into the Magic Valley.
So temperatures in the northern half are just slightly higher at
this time. The approach of the front from the south means that
to the north there is some northerly wind, which is still gusty
in the major NW-SE oriented valleys there, such as the Wood
River Valley. Otherwise, the nature of the warm front with
warming aloft means more stable conditions and outside of these
valleys winds are light and variable.

A look across deterministic guidance and the averaged NBM/WPC
guidance shows that the precipitation amounts and timing,
especially through the first 48 hours of the forecast, through
Mon night, should be taken with a huge rain of salt. Some
periods in the southern range has rather large amounts of
precipitation, but only in some of the guidance. The only real
consistency is that starting Tue the overall amounts and the
variation decrease, but that timing is still a low confidence
situation.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures mild, and the warm air mass
moving in behind this warm front will keep temperatures well
above climatic normals; just not at the records of the recent
days. This is true through this period and into the extended.

Wind is light through this period, with weak association with
the slope-valley effect. This makes sense with the cloud cover.
Only today as any wind approaching gusty, mainly due to the
closeness of the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Cluster products were not available for analysis. However,
overnight guidance shows a wind diversity of solutions. For
example the deterministic guidance from the American GFS
indicates just below mentionable precipitation risk at 13
percent for Thu at the Pocatello Airport, while the ECMWF
guidance has likely probabilities on the very same period. This
spread is likely due to lack of specific equations for the
autumn period with some guidance, where equations are based on
"summer" and "winter." So the forecast for precipitation for
this period is subject to major changes as time progresses.

There is some agreement that near to above normal temperatures
are likely both for highs and lows, with no forecast below
normal.

There may be another feature arriving next weekend that will
kick up the wind for Sat, 22 November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Difficult forecast with two occurrences of precipitation pushing
through all 5 airdromes, after the round that occurred
overnight. The first one during this valid TAF time starts in
the mid-day, around 16/18Z, with VFR conditions remaining
everywhere except marginal VFR CIGs at KSUN. There is a break in
the mid-afternoon and into the early evening, but by late
evening a more significant wave of precipitation develops. This
one should produce marginal VFR CIGs for KSUN and KDIJ for
certain, while KPIH will be very close, and only KBYI appears
too dry in the lower levels to see the lower CIGs. KDIH also has
a risk of BR and marginal VFR for VSBY.

The other weather impact will be wind, with G25KT to G30KT at
KPIH and KIDA. Other airports should see some G20KT, with the
afternoon event having stronger wind than the overnight event.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick