Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS65 KPIH 231047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
THE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OF A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING BEHIND AN EXITING
SYSTEM. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND TO
AN LESSER EXTENT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM ARE BRINGING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS CURRENTLY HAS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THAN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
PROMISE OF A GOOD HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT. GFS FAVORS FLATTENING OF
RIDGE THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTRUSION ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF FAVORS STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM
CANADIAN LOW. BOTH MODELS CONSISTENT IN INTRODUCTION OF MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE AND
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN
CLOSER LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF RECENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING EASTERN IDAHO.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWS EARLY THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ANOTHER WEAK CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO SNAKE PLAIN FROM CENTRAL MTNS. LOW STRATUS IN PLACE AS
WELL ALONG INTERSTATES 15/86/84 FOR MVFR CEILINGS. TIGHT SFC
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS STILL PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR MAINLY ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOWS IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL REINFORCE INVERSIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. KPIH ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AND COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.