Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
759 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016


Updated forecast based on satellite/radar trends.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sun night. This is a very wet period
for the entire forecast area. For today and tonight, widespread
0.20 to 0.30 of an inch expected nearly uniformly, with some
higher elevations even more. There is a slight let-up on Sat, but
more precipitation for Sat night through Sun night. The moist
sub-tropical air is so warm that the snow level is staying very
high until late Sun night, when it finally lowers to around 6000
ft elevation in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Not a
lot of wind with the only mixing occurring if there are some
breaks during the afternoon and a slight chance of thunderstorms
develops. This is occurring on the lower PoP NAM compared to the
GFS. Have gone with NCEP solution of general thunderstorm
possibilities for the the southeastern 2/3 of the forecast area.
The area develops again especially for Sun afternoon, and there is
even a small area for Sat afternoon.


LONG TERM...Monday through Friday night. Not much difference
between models for a change. Upper ridging on Mon pushes most of the
precip into the mtns...but another minor short wave brings increased
chances for precip on Tue. Precip amounts should be light. Both
models show upper ridging becoming dominant on Wed...with dry and
mild conditions thru Fri. Models diverge Fri night with the GFS
showing an upper trof moving thru the Pac NW...while the ECMWF
maintains dry conditions.  Will go with widely scattered showers
over the central mtns toward Sat morn. Hedges

AVIATION...Rain moving thru the central mtns early this morning
will spread across the entire region...continuing into the evening.
The persistent rain will have an impact on cigs with MVFR and ocnl
IFR conditions today and tonight. Hedges



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