Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281920
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
120 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN ID THIS AFTN WILL FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO WY BY
FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON FRI...PUSHING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE RIDGE HOLDS
THRU SUN MORN...BUT MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE MTNS BOTH
FRI AND SAT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TO ISOLD OVERNIGHT. THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FRI
THRU SUN MORN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMING UP UNDER THE RIDGE.
HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTENSIFIES OVER THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF BOTH MAINTAIN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND A SERIES OF WAVES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IDAHO. THE FIRST ON MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ON
TUESDAY EVENING...BOTH WITH APPROXIMATELY THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...ITS ENERGY WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. BOTH MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A SINGLE TROUGH
WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO PRODUCE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WEST.
EITHER CASE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER POPS FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW OVER THE ID/WY BORDER DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO TAFS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE
SAME PATTERN AS PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT
HEAVY SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY
LOWERING VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 2 MILES. HINSBERGER &&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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