Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 292024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Monsoon moisture in place
over significant portions of SE Idaho per wv satellite imagery and
surface dew points. Convection has already fired over higher
elevation areas and should continue through the overnight.
Strongest convection expected before sunset with small hail and
gusty winds the primary threat though an isolated marginally
severe storm is possible. Similar pattern continues through Friday
across the region though a minor uptick in winds are expected as
shortwave approaches.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. Upper ridge flattens
slightly Friday night into Saturday in response to shortwave
sliding through southern Canada. Dry pocket in westerly flow
shifts across the region Saturday and should see a drop in
available precipitable water and concurrent drop in thunderstorm
coverage. Leading weak frontal boundary slides across SE Idaho
Sunday, and still expect breezy winds afternoon especially through
Snake Plain where strongest gradient expected. GFS/EC both now
trending with stronger Pacific low dropping into PacNW region and
along coast Monday into Tuesday. GFS sharper and further south
than EC and quicker in shuffling front for Tuesday. Will continue
breezy winds through most of the region Tuesday as well. DMH


.AVIATION...Higher dewpoints across the region will help destabilize
airmass this afternoon/evening. Models show convection starting in
the late afternoon hours and lasting until after midnight. Thunder
will remain in the forecast but timing and location of convective
initiation still an unknown at this time. Winds will remain light
except around thunderstorm activity. Hinsberger


.FIRE WEATHER...Higher humidities are slowing making their way into
the region from the south as the Southwest Monsoon kicks into gear.
Dry lightning will remain a threat tonight and again tomorrow as
convective activity resumes. Stronger synoptic scale lift will
result in greater areal coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow with most
of the forecast area impacted. Winds will be fairly light outside of
convective activity, however they will trend slightly stronger
Saturday and beyond as a 500mb speed max drops into Central Idaho.
Convection by that point will be mostly isolated at best throughout
the afternoon and early evening. Hinsberger


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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