Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 280958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
358 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR AREA MAINLY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEAR LAKE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MODELS
SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY
AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT
BECAUSE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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