Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 300900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER EASTERN
IDAHO. WE CAN EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WEAK DOWNSLOPE LIKELY DRIVING TEMPERATURES UP AN EXTRA DEGREE OR
SO ALONG THE I-84/86 CORRIDOR. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS NOTHING NEW CONSIDERING
ALL OF THE RECORDS WE`VE SET THIS MONTH. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
ITS APPROACH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE THE
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND WHERE SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE FAVORED. WE WILL STAY DRY WITH
SOME CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER EASTERN IDAHO.

THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL REALLY CRANK UP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE
THOSE GUSTS. THE MAIN PART OF THIS STORM PUSHES ACROSS IDAHO
TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO VALLEY ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WIND GRADIENT
ACTUALLY WILL BE IN OUR AREA FOR THE SAME PERIOD. WE MAY SEE
SPEEDS REACHING THE TRIGGER POINT FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WITH
IT BEING LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WE MAY ESCAPE IT. WE ARE
SAYING MAY BECAUSE STRONGER FRONTS ARE KNOWN TO BRING A LOT OF
WIND EVEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. ONE CONCERN ACTUALLY COULD
NAVIGATING BLOWING DUST IN THE DARK...WHICH COULD BE A HUGE ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY AS
ANOTHER UPTICK AND MOISTURE AND A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND NEAR ISLAND PARK WHERE ANYWHERE 0.10-0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THAT EQUATES TO 1-2 INCHES OF WET SNOW.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WED NIGHT BECOMES A SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM ON THU
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH ID BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...THIS REDUCES THE PRECIP THREAT. THUS...HAVE
REDUCED THE PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE ON THU. THE SPLIT FLOW IS NOT
WELL DEFINED...OTHERWISE WOULD MAKE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTS IN THE
PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON FRI AND MOVES EAST ON SAT
AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR SAT AS THE SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SERIOUSLY DEPART WAYS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SAT EVE. THE GFS
BRINGS A SHALLOW AND BROAD TROF INLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A
DEEPER UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST. BY SUN EVE...THE RIFT CONTINUES.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHARPER UPPER TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN..WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
THE SITUATION DOES NOT IMPROVE BY MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
DRIER SOLUTION SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT WITH THE ONLY PRECIP IN THE
NRN MTNS WHICH IS COMMON IN SW FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
PRECIP AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF CHAOS...SO THAT SOLUTION IS IN DOUBT. WILL
TAKE A SOMEWHAT DRIER APPROACH FOR SUN AND MON. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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