Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Dry and warmer conditions will return as we head
into the weekend as high pressure builds across the West. Winds
will be light, although today we are going to flirt with the north
wind threshold (11mph +) for a LAKE WIND ADVISORY on American
Falls Reservoir. At the moment, no headline is needed. By Sunday,
highs will be back into the 80s and 90s down low and 70s in most
mountain locales.

Our next target of opportunity for rain and thunderstorms will be
Monday. This is when some moisture interacts with a storm
scooting across the Northern Rockies. Expect AT LEAST isolated
showers and storms across the central mountains and along the
Montana border. Farther south, coverage will be sparse but not
necessarily zero. Don`t expect a lot of rain and gusty winds with
these cells. The risk continues through the night and into
Tuesday as the wave moves east across the area. The operational
models are in disagreement for the rest of next week, with the GFS
more aggressive in building a ridge back into the West. The ECMWF
wants to hang on to low pressure along the Divide longer, which
actually looks a lot like some of the ensemble information. The
previous forecast was drier like the GFS so we left it as for
now. Keyes


.AVIATION...High pressure will continue VFR conditions through
tonight. Winds will be the tricky concern as northerly gradient
overtakes most of the region through the day, though expect south
or southwesterly winds early today at KPIH and KBYI. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Northwest flow continues to keep near normal
temperatures across the region today and Saturday, slightly warmer
each day. Ridge axis shifts east across the region by Sunday with
temps warming more significantly. Warmest day of the week looks to
be Monday, but also seeing a breakdown of upper ridge that day as
Pacific trough shifts inland. Models becoming more consistent and
continue to trend toward wetter conditions Monday, but some
indications are that we could see an overnight surprise Sunday
night. Frontal feature shifts through on Monday, and could see
storms linger into Tuesday as main trough lingers. Latter half of
the week likely similar to recent few days, with cooler but dry
northwest flow settling in across the northern states. DMH


.HYDROLOGY...Streams and rivers across the central Idaho mountains
and upper Snake highlands are experiencing some flooding from warm
weather over the past few days. An additional 1,500 cfs was released
from Palisades this afternoon. This should keep water levels just
below flood stage on the Snake River at Heise. Cooler weather is
likely through the weekend, which will allow the rivers to subside.
Warmer weather is likely once again early next week and a return to
flooding is possible then.




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