Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 212007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH
AND EAST AND BY MIDNIGHT...THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE NEAR ISLAND
PARK. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF AND WILL CANCEL
THE WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SHORT BREAK FROM ANY SHOWERS. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 135W...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN INCREASES SHARPLY..TAKING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WELL NORTH TO THE PAN HANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CAN MOVE
INLAND. THAT GIVES THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A CHANCE WARM UP ABOUT
15 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE THREE DAYS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. WELCOME
TO FALL WEATHER. RS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
WINDY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...VERY LIKELY SNOW DOWN TO THE 6000
FT ELEVATION IN PLACES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THIS
FEATURE...AND HAVE HAD IT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE ECMWF TAKES A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. THE GFS IS THE
EXACT OPPOSITE WITH A LOW CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A
LARGE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT. NCEP HAS NOT
PREFERRED THE DRY ECMWF...BUT HAS SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN DONE...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FOR SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT CONSIDERED A PROBLEM FOR ANY AIRDROME...AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. NO SERIOUS IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON WED.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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