624
FXUS65 KPUB 072121
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer with a few central mountain flurries on Monday.

- Main concern is the long term, especially this THU and FRI as
  lots of uncertainty temps/precip these days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Brisk NW flow aloft across the region today, with pockets of
gusty winds over the central mountains/upper Arkansas Valley and
a few flurries over the higher peaks around Leadville.
Overnight, winds aloft slowly decrease, though still enough flow
for some late night/early morning downslope winds in the 20-30
kt range over usual lee slopes. On Mon, weak wave and moisture
may bring a renewed round of flurries/snow showers to the
central mountains, especially in the morning, though snow
accumulations will be minor at best. Mon afternoon, downslope
winds and warming mid-levels should lead to a milder day at
most locations, with a mix of 40s/50s lower elevations, 30s/40s
mountains. A few lee-side locations could see some breezy winds
(15-25 mph) in the afternoon, though in general winds look to be
weaker than the past few days, especially over the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

The main concern is what is going to happen Thursday and Friday
across the region. For Tuesday through Wednesday, we will see a
modest warming trend across the region, with temps reaching the
50s to around 60 over the plains by Wednesday. Isolated snow
showers will be possible in the central mtns Tuesday, becoming
more widespread by Wednesday. The remainder of the region will
remain dry. Breezy conditions are likely across the region,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking at the DESI statistical guidance, it appears the guidance
products in the mid to long range are having an issue on the
movement of an arctic air mass moving down across the north central
part of the country during the THU and FRI time frame. Some of the
members show max temps as low as the 20s for Friday while other
members are as the 50s for the same day. Looking at the
deterministic data, this is due to the location of an arctic air
mass dropping south across the central part of the country. As an
example, GFS is much farther west and has a 1050 arctic high pushing
into the MT/Dakotas while the EC guidance is farther east with this
system.

Precip could also be an issue on these two days, If the cold air is
farther west, then it could be cold and cloudy on the plains with
light snow. The central mtns could see wind driven heavier snow. If
the cold air remains farther east, then sunny skies are likely on
the plains with a few snow showers central mtns.

For the weekend, DESI statistical guidance is showing much less
variability, with mild temperatures across the region as ridging
develops aloft over the fcst area. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. North winds at KCOS and
KALS may overcome typical afternoon upslope/upvalley at both
sites, though speeds will remain under 12 kt. Overnight into Mon
morning, light diurnal downslope flow will be late to develop,
before eventually arriving by 10z-12z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN