Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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545 FXUS65 KPUB 022113 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 213 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow starts to expand in coverage tonight along the mountains and Pikes Peak region. - Snow expands in coverage areawide Wednesday, with the heaviest snow along the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. - Persistent northwest flow from Friday into early next week will bring periods of snowfall to the La Garita Range and Central Mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 Tonight: Overnight, active weather starts to surge for south central and southeastern Colorado. A trough will be approaching the region throughout the night, and in response to this, broader synoptic ascent will increase, along with orographic forcing as flow starts to rise. Along with that, a modest uptick in moisture is expected with this wave passage. With the increase in forcing and moisture, snow showers are anticipated to develop along the mountains, though with the greatest coverage being along the central mountains where orographic forcing will greatest. In addition, snow is expected to start blossoming along the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak region by early Wednesday morning, as a cold front from a separate wave to the northeast starts pushing southward, brining increased surface forcing into this localized area. This may be the area of greatest concern for the overnight period, as snow is expected to start right at or before the Wednesday morning commute. For those traveling, allow for extra driving time in the morning and take extra caution on the roadways. Outside of the mountains and Pikes Peak region, dry conditions are expected to prevail, though this will change throughout the day Wednesday. Otherwise, clouds will start to surge in coverage as the system approaches, with winds remaining light, generally less than 10 mph. As for temperatures, an above seasonal night is anticipated due to the increasing cloud cover, with the plains falling into the 20s, and the valleys and mountains falling into the 10s to single digits. Today: Heading into Wednesday, an active weather day is anticipated, with some degree of snow impacting much of south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned trough will now be pushing over the region, continuing to bring reinforcing synoptic ascent and orographic forcing. Along with that, modest moisture will remain in place with the wave passage. With the overall forcing and moisture in place, snow is expected to expand in coverage across much of the region. The heaviest snow is anticipated along the eastern mountains and into the I-25 corridor, where surface forcing behind an advancing cold front, along with the synoptic support, will allow for a corridor of moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall. Outside of that, light to moderate snow is expected for the rest of the mountains given the persistent orographic forcing, with light snow also expected across the eastern plains during the day as a brief period of isentropic ascent develops over this localized area. Again, extra caution should be taken while traveling Wednesday, especially across the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. Allow for extra time to reach your destination. Otherwise, Wednesday brings a cloudy day to the area, with winds remaining relatively light, around and less than 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, a cold day is expected with below seasonal temperatures expected areawide, with the plains only warming into the 30s, the valleys into the 20s to low 30s, and the mountains into the 10s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 253 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 Wednesday night into Thursday...the upper trough will quickly shift eastward across Colorado Wednesday night, with broad northwesterly flow developing for Thursday. Snowfall will come to an end across the Pike Peak Region during the evening, and linger for the southern I-25 corridor and southern mountains through early Thursday morning. For the most part, Thursday will be dry, with possibly a few light snow showers lingering across the San Juan and Southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges early in the day. Temperatures will be tricky on Thursday due to snow cover. Lowered highs along the I-25 corridor where snow is expected, and highs will top out in the mid 30s to near 40. This may be generous. Warmer temperatures are expected near the Kansas border where little to no snow is expected to fall, and highs will reach the lower 40s. Friday through Tuesday...broad northwest flow is forecast to develop with longwave troughing to the east, and high pressure off the west coast. Multiple embedded upper waves in the flow are forecast to impact the area, with near continuous periods of mountain snowfall, from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains. Model guidance is suggesting a few showers could move into the Palmer Divide region on Saturday morning, as the strongest emended wave moves overhead. This system may also bring some wind to the area on Saturday morning. Mozley && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1045 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period, with MVFR to IFR, to possibly LIFR, conditions developing by tomorrow morning. A weather system will push across the area starting today, bringing increasing cloud cover, with ceilings dropping quickly tomorrow morning. In addition, snow is expected to expand in coverage over all three TAF sites, but especially KCOS and KPUB as a cold front pushes southward early tomorrow morning. Quick drops in visibility are expected in any snow that develops. Outside of tomorrow morning, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail, though there is a very low chance (10%) of a rogue shower this evening for KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, winds are anticipated to remain light through much of this TAF period for all three TAF sites, with a slight increase for KCOS and KPUB tomorrow morning as the aforementioned cold front pushes southward. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for COZ062-077-083-085-086. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ066>068. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ069>071-078>080-087-088. Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ072>075. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for COZ076-081-082-084. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...SIMCOE