309
FXUS65 KPUB 011724
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1024 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures stick around for today,
  especially for areas waking up to fresh snowfall. Clearing and
  drying spreads across the area throughout the morning hours,
  giving way to sunshine.

- The next upper storm system will impact the area Tuesday
  night into Thursday morning with another round of accumulating
  snow for much of the region.

- Northwest flow will prevail for late week into the weekend
  with near continuous snow across the Central Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Currently..

As of 1 AM, satellite imagery shows southeast Colorado under the
passing trough axis. Radar returns show the development of secondary
bands of snow forming along the mountains plains interface through
Fremont, Custer, Huerfano, and western Pueblo counties. High res
models handled this new development well, especially the HRRR. Areas
under these new bands of snow may pick up another quick inch or two
through the early morning hours. Temperatures are in the teens and
low 20s across the plains, and Alamosa is currently our warmest
location with a reading of 31F at 0100. Dewpoints are in the teens
and 20s as well. Winds are mainly easterly on the plains. Skies are
overcast. Most locations along and north of a line from around Eads
to Walsenburg on the plains are seeing snow early this morning. Far
northern and western portions of El Paso County have already begun
to clear.

Today and Tonight..

Since the HRRR was so spot on with the timing and location of the
new development along and west of I-25 early this morning, we will
lean a bit more heavily on its trends this morning. Models tend to
push these bands southwards as the trough axis continues to dip out
south and east of us. This trend keeps pops over the southern
Sangres and southern I-25 corridor through late morning, though
snowfall rates still look to drop below Advisory level for the
mountains near sunrise now that the best forcing has passed. This
trend also allows for quick clearing from northwest to southeast
throughout the morning hours, which will help to bring in some
sunshine today. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday for some locations, however, we will still be well
below normal and firmly in cold, northerly flow aloft. Highs look to
mostly stay in the 30s on the plains, with a few locations in the
far east possibly hitting low 40s, especially where no snow has
fallen. The San Luis Valley also looks to warm into the upper 30s.
Much of the I-25 corridor will only be a couple of degrees warmer
than yesterday though, with the added bonus that many of us are
waking up to our first snowfall. Though travel impacts are not
expected and snow amounts are light by Colorado standards, the first
snow of the season does still come with a general -take it easy on
the roads this morning- type of message. Snow is expected to come to
an end by Noon at the latest, and many of us will see all of our
snow melted away with a quickness in the Colorado sunshine despite
the cold temperatures. Clear conditions and continued cold,
northerly flow aloft will make for another night of frigid
temperatures as well. All of our plains are expected to see
overnight lows in the teens tonight, with single digits for mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Models remain in good agreement through the extended period,
with an upper storm system impacting the region mid week,
followed by northwesterly flow with embedded waves.

Tuesday...broad westerly flow aloft will prevail across
Colorado on Tuesday as the next upper trough begins to dig south
into the Great Basin. Mixing along the lee slopes will help
boost temperatures across the Plains with highs reaching through
the 40s and into the lower 50s. Breezy conditions will be
possible in gap wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor from
mid morning into the afternoon. While most of the area looks to
remain dry, a few light snow showers will be possible north of
Cottonwood Pass by late afternoon.

Tuesday night through Thursday...models in good agreement with
the evolution and track of the upper system. Snow will increase
along the Continental Divide Tuesday night into Monday morning.
Meanwhile, a cold front will arrive on the Plains, with
northeasterly upslope flow and cold air advection spreading
across the Plains. Snow will spread eastward off the higher
terrain into the Palmer Divide by morning and continue south
along the I-25 corridor through early afternoon. Temperatures
look cold enough for all snow with max temperatures on the
Plains only reaching the upper 20s to near freezing. As the
upper system tracks across Colorado, the focus for snow will
shift south to along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and southern I-25 corridor Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Snow looks to taper off by Thursday afternoon, hanging
on the longest over the southern mountains and Raton Mesa. A
quick look at the snow amount possibilities; 1 to 3 inches for
the lower elevations along I-25, and 3 to 6 inches for the
Mountains. It should be noted, that ensemble guidance continues
to increase snow amounts from run to run, with 24 hour means
closer to 3 inches for the I-25 corridor Wednesday into early
Thursday. This will need to be monitored.

Friday through Monday...upper troughing will anchor to the east
with upper ridging off the west coast. This will put persistent
northwest flow across Colorado for the later half of the
extended period. Embedded waves will bring periods of snow to
the Mountains, with near continuous snowfall for the Central
Mountains north of Cottonwood Pass where orographics favor
northwest flow. The Plains look to remain dry during this
period, with temperatures rebounding back into the 40s, to
perhaps a few low 50s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to remain light, less than 10 knots,
through this TAF period for all three TAF sites. Otherwise, high
level clouds will start to increase near the end of this TAF period,
with dry conditions prevailing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE