545
FXUS65 KPUB 022113
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
213 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow starts to expand in coverage tonight along the mountains
  and Pikes Peak region.

- Snow expands in coverage areawide Wednesday, with the heaviest
  snow along the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor.

- Persistent northwest flow from Friday into early next week
  will bring periods of snowfall to the La Garita Range and
  Central Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Tonight: Overnight, active weather starts to surge for south central
and southeastern Colorado. A trough will be approaching the region
throughout the night, and in response to this, broader synoptic
ascent will increase, along with orographic forcing as flow starts
to rise. Along with that, a modest uptick in moisture is expected
with this wave passage. With the increase in forcing and moisture,
snow showers are anticipated to develop along the mountains, though
with the greatest coverage being along the central mountains where
orographic forcing will greatest. In addition, snow is expected to
start blossoming along the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak region by early
Wednesday morning, as a cold front from a separate wave to the
northeast starts pushing southward, brining increased surface
forcing into this localized area. This may be the area of greatest
concern for the overnight period, as snow is expected to start right
at or before the Wednesday morning commute. For those traveling,
allow for extra driving time in the morning and take extra caution
on the roadways. Outside of the mountains and Pikes Peak region, dry
conditions are expected to prevail, though this will change
throughout the day Wednesday. Otherwise, clouds will start to surge
in coverage as the system approaches, with winds remaining light,
generally less than 10 mph. As for temperatures, an above seasonal
night is anticipated due to the increasing cloud cover, with the
plains falling into the 20s, and the valleys and mountains falling
into the 10s to single digits.

Today: Heading into Wednesday, an active weather day is anticipated,
with some degree of snow impacting much of south central and
southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned trough will now be pushing
over the region, continuing to bring reinforcing synoptic ascent and
orographic forcing. Along with that, modest moisture will remain in
place with the wave passage. With the overall forcing and moisture
in place, snow is expected to expand in coverage across much of the
region. The heaviest snow is anticipated along the eastern mountains
and into the I-25 corridor, where surface forcing behind an
advancing cold front, along with the synoptic support, will allow
for a corridor of moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall. Outside of
that, light to moderate snow is expected for the rest of the
mountains given the persistent orographic forcing, with light snow
also expected across the eastern plains during the day as a brief
period of isentropic ascent develops over this localized area.
Again, extra caution should be taken while traveling Wednesday,
especially across the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. Allow
for extra time to reach your destination. Otherwise, Wednesday
brings a cloudy day to the area, with winds remaining relatively
light, around and less than 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, a
cold day is expected with below seasonal temperatures expected
areawide, with the plains only warming into the 30s, the valleys
into the 20s to low 30s, and the mountains into the 10s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday night into Thursday...the upper trough will quickly
shift eastward across Colorado Wednesday night, with broad
northwesterly flow developing for Thursday. Snowfall will come
to an end across the Pike Peak Region during the evening, and
linger for the southern I-25 corridor and southern mountains
through early Thursday morning. For the most part, Thursday will
be dry, with possibly a few light snow showers lingering across
the San Juan and Southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges early in the
day. Temperatures will be tricky on Thursday due to snow cover.
Lowered highs along the I-25 corridor where snow is expected,
and highs will top out in the mid 30s to near 40. This may be
generous. Warmer temperatures are expected near the Kansas
border where little to no snow is expected to fall, and highs
will reach the lower 40s.

Friday through Tuesday...broad northwest flow is forecast to
develop with longwave troughing to the east, and high pressure
off the west coast. Multiple embedded upper waves in the flow
are forecast to impact the area, with near continuous periods
of mountain snowfall, from the La Garita Range, north into the
Central Mountains. Model guidance is suggesting a few showers
could move into the Palmer Divide region on Saturday morning, as
the strongest emended wave moves overhead. This system may also
bring some wind to the area on Saturday morning. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected for the majority
of this TAF period, with MVFR to IFR, to possibly LIFR, conditions
developing by tomorrow morning. A weather system will push across
the area starting today, bringing increasing cloud cover, with
ceilings dropping quickly tomorrow morning. In addition, snow is
expected to expand in coverage over all three TAF sites, but
especially KCOS and KPUB as a cold front pushes southward early
tomorrow morning. Quick drops in visibility are expected in any snow
that develops. Outside of tomorrow morning, dry conditions are
anticipated to prevail, though there is a very low chance (10%) of a
rogue shower this evening for KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, winds are
anticipated to remain light through much of this TAF period for all
three TAF sites, with a slight increase for KCOS and KPUB tomorrow
morning as the aforementioned cold front pushes southward.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ062-077-083-085-086.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM MST
Thursday for COZ066>068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST
Thursday for COZ069>071-078>080-087-088.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST Thursday
for COZ072>075.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ076-081-082-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE