027
FXUS65 KPUB 021745
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for most
  areas today ahead of an incoming winter weather system.

- Snow begins over the central mountains later this morning,
  spreading into the rest of the high country throughout the
  day, and into the plains by tonight.

- Snow ends Wednesday night for much of the region, with
  lingering light snow over the San Juan and southern Sangre de
  Cristo Ranges on Thursday.

- Persistent northwest flow from Friday into early next week
  will bring periods of snowfall to the La Garita Range and
  Central Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Currently..

As of 1 AM, most of the forecast area is clear, though some high
clouds have moved over the Pikes Peak region. With clear conditions,
temperatures have already fallen into the teens for most areas. A
few locations are still in the 20s near the mountains. Dewpoints are
in the teens and single digits above zero for most locations, though
the Leadville dewpoint is currently sitting at -2 this hour. Winds
are light. Our incoming wave does not look like much but is moving
into the Pacific Northwest.

Today..

If you have any outdoor chores or activities that require warm and
dry conditions today is the day for it, at least on the plains.
Highs look to warm back into the near normal range for the lower
elevations, with temperatures climbing into the upper 40s and low
50s. Cloud cover will be increasing for all areas as our next system
approaches, and northwesterly winds will be on the increase over the
high country as well. Gusts to 35 mph will be possible over our
mountains, which may lead to some blowing snow for our highest
peaks. As the incoming wave approaches, snow looks to begin for the
northern and western facing slopes of the central mountains by the
late morning hours, where orographics will be favored earliest. Snow
chances push into the La Garitas by early afternoon, and into the
rest of the high country by early this evening. Snow accumulations
during the daytime hours today will be light, with the main wave
only just making it into the Great Basin region by this afternoon.

Tonight..

Snow chances spread into the Palmer Divide and the northern I-25
corridor by late this evening. Though snowfall rates are expected to
be light at first, temperatures have been cold, and snow may begin
sticking to roadways right from the start of the event. Once snow
begins, especially since it will be dark, it is safe to assume that
travel impacts may begin as well, which may be as early as 9 PM this
evening for the Palmer Divide. Snowfall rates look to increase
through the overnight hours though, with more significant chances
for travel impacts coming in for the morning commute on Wednesday.
For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Teller and northern El Paso County beginning at 2 AM Wednesday
morning. Snow chances also spread southwards through the overnight
and early morning hours, moving into Pueblo County and the Highway
50 corridor by midnight, and into the rest of the southern I-25
corridor by 3 AM or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Models continue to remain in good agreement through the extended
period with a winter storm Wednesday into Thursday, followed by
persistent northwest flow and embedded waves Friday into early
next week.

Wednesday...models in good agreement with an upper trough moving
through the Northern Plains, with another trough digging across
the Four Corners and into the Desert Southwest. A cold front
associated with the northern trough will push westward across
the Plains early Wednesday morning, with flow turning easterly
upslope. Cold air will continue fill in behind the frontal
boundary, with temperatures holding in the upper 20s for much of
the region. Precipitation, initially over the Palmer Divide
will spread southward along the Eastern Mountains and I-25
corridor by mid morning. Snowfall could be moderate to heavy at
times, with impacts to the morning commute all along the I-25
corridor. Snow will also be ongoing across the higher terrain,
with lower snowfall rates throughout the day. Issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for the I-25 corridor, where lower elevations
will likely see 2 to 5 inches, while the higher elevations see 3
to 6 inches. For the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo
Range, higher amounts are possible, with ranges of 4 to 8
inches. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible.

Wednesday night into Thursday...the upper trough will quickly
shift eastward across Colorado Wednesday night, with broad
northwesterly flow developing for Thursday. Snowfall will come
to an end across the Pike Peak Region during the evening, and
linger for the southern I-25 corridor and southern mountains
through early Thursday morning. For the most part, Thursday will
be dry, with possibly a few light snow showers lingering across
the San Juan and Southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges early in the
day. Temperatures will be tricky on Thursday due to snow cover.
Lowered highs along the I-25 corridor where snow is expected,
and highs will top out in the mid 30s to near 40. This may be
generous. Warmer temperatures are expected near the Kansas
border where little to no snow is expected to fall, and highs
will reach the lower 40s.

Friday through Tuesday...broad northwest flow is forecast to
develop with longwave troughing to the east, and high pressure
off the west coast. Multiple embedded upper waves in the flow
are forecast to impact the area, with near continuous periods
of mountain snowfall, from the La Garita Range, north into the
Central Mountains. Model guidance is suggesting a few showers
could move into the Palmer Divide region on Saturday morning, as
the strongest emended wave moves overhead. This system may also
bring some wind to the area on Saturday morning. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected for the majority
of this TAF period, with MVFR to IFR, to possibly LIFR, conditions
developing by tomorrow morning. A weather system will push across
the area starting today, bringing increasing cloud cover, with
ceilings dropping quickly tomorrow morning. In addition, snow is
expected to expand in coverage over all three TAF sites, but
especially KCOS and KPUB as a cold front pushes southward early
tomorrow morning. Quick drops in visibility are expected in any snow
that develops. Outside of tomorrow morning, dry conditions are
anticipated to prevail, though there is a very low chance (10%) of a
rogue shower this evening for KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, winds are
anticipated to remain light through much of this TAF period for all
three TAF sites, with a slight increase for KCOS and KPUB tomorrow
morning as the aforementioned cold front pushes southward.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST
Thursday for COZ072>075-078>080-087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ077-083-085-086.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE