003
FXUS64 KSHV 230534
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - One more dry day areawide on Sunday before we begin to see
   moisture returning late Sunday/Sunday Night in advance of our
   next storm system.

 - Still looking at a window for excessive heavy rainfall and
   possible severe weather beginning to impact the region on
   Monday, continuing through at last Monday Night.

 - Colder air still poised to move into the region during the day
   Wednesday and through the end of the holiday week with near
   freezing overnight low temperatures across our northern zones
   for Wed Night and again Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Still seeing post frontal northwest winds across our region late
this evening and temperatures a little more indicative of late
November compared to what we`ve seen through most of this month.
Low level post frontal cloud cover remains across portions of SE
OK and Central AR and this moisture will try to backdoor into our
region from the northeast overnight and on Sunday. These clouds
may be stubborn to break out during the morning but think we will
eventually see some scattering out of this moisture if not by late
morning then by afternoon. Northeasterly winds will become near
easterly by afternoon which, assuming we see the cloud cover
diminishing during the day, we should see temperatures warming
into the middle 60s north to the lower and middle 70s south for
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, we begin to watch a vigorous upper trough eject out
of the Four Corners Region of the Country and into the Southern
Plains late Sunday Night and during the day Monday. We will likely
begin to see returning showers and thunderstorms in advance of
this trough late Sunday Night but especially during the predawn
hours Monday Morning across our far northwest zones. More of our
region will await more broad forcing in association with the upper
trough ejection during the day Monday to see more widespread
convection across mostly our northwest half during the day Monday,
with convection moving into our southeast half Monday Evening
through the overnight hours. At this time, the heaviest rainfall
appears to be mainly to the north and northwest of the I-20
Corridor of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. This will be the same general
area where beneficial rainfall fell with our last trough on
Thursday. While much of this region remains in a Slight Risk for
Excessive, Heavy Rainfall in the Monday/Monday Night timeframe,
this area should be able to take a good 1-3 inch rainfall without
widespread flooding impacts and therefore, no Flood Watch will be
issued with this package.

Concerning severe weather potential, SPC did upgrade our region to
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, again in this
Monday/Monday Night timeframe and this is certainly warranted
given the consistency in the models when it comes to low level
directional shear and bulk shear progs. Still what is uncertain is
the amount of surface based instability as much of this
instability may be slightly elevated due to a low level capping
inversion. This could mean everything when it comes to a more
serious risk of tornadoes with this convection vs more of an
isolated hail and/or wind threat if the storms remain mostly
elevated. Regardless, the convection should exit our region to
the southeast early on Tuesday.

Strong cold front to enter our region from the northwest late
Tuesday Night and into the day Wednesday bringing and end to high
temperatures in the 70s for the remainder of the holiday week. We
should really feel the chill overnight Wed Night and again Thu
Night with low temperatures in the 30s across most areas Wed Night
and across the east Thu Night. Near freezing temperatures will be
possible across our far northern and northeastern zones both
nights.

Our next trough begins to take shape across the Intermountain West
once again by next weekend. With upper southwesterly flow
returning, progs are hinting at possible showers and storms
returning to our region along with a warming trend to begin the
weekend.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

All TAFs are VFR currently, although MVFR cigs with bases from 2
to 3k feet AGL are in SE OK and portions of SW AR, but low
ceilings later tonight getting into TXK and ELD have been delayed
over what was represented in the 00Z TAF package. Some visibility
reductions are possible in all areas, although any dense fog
should be isolated and is not represented in any TAFs through
tomorrow morning. Farther south into the I-20 corridor, there is
more confidence in patchy IFR ceilings and maybe some visibility
reductions in SHV and MLU from approximately 6 AM through 10 AM.
This was represented in most of these TAFs to one degree or
another, although confidence is now higher that TYR and LFK may
remain entirely (or largely) VFR late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Above the low stuff, expect increasing cirrus from 20 to
25k feet through the night into tomorrow morning. Sub VFR
conditions could linger a while into tomorrow morning at
ELD/TXK/MLU, but confidence is decent that VFR conditions will
prevail in all areas by noon. Otherwise, current light winds from
the northwest at around 10 mph will become light this evening and
gradually veer to the northeast and east by tomorrow morning.
These winds will eventually start veering to the southeast
tomorrow night in advance of an approaching storm system that will
bring rain, storms, and bad flying conditions to the area Monday
and Monday night, although anything more than isolated showers and
not expected before the end of the TAF period...and then mainly
confined to TYR and TXK. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
However, spotter activation may be needed Monday and Monday night
due to the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  56  76  61/  0  40  80  90
MLU  70  51  78  64/  0   0  40  90
DEQ  66  49  62  50/  0  80 100  50
TXK  67  53  71  58/  0  60  90  80
ELD  67  48  71  56/  0  20  70 100
TYR  69  58  73  56/  0  60 100  50
GGG  69  54  74  56/  0  50  90  80
LFK  74  57  80  59/  0  20  80  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...50