713
FXUS64 KSHV 031111
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
511 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through the new
   work week, with above normal temperatures returning Tuesday and
   beyond.

 - Dry conditions will continue through the coming work week
   into at least the first half of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

The air mass over the Four State Region has dried out significantly
during the last 24 hrs, per comparisons in the 00Z KSHV raobs, in
wake of the longwave trough passage that has dug into the Central
Gulf. The late evening sfc analysis depicts sfc ridging anchored
from the Mid-South into E TX, with light winds and a clear sky
resulting in good radiational cooling as temps have fallen off
sharply since sunset. This will be the coldest night over the next
7 days, as we set to begin a warming trend Monday as heights rise
in response to upper ridging over NM/W TX that will continue to
expand E into the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley Monday, and
persist through at least midweek albeit flattening as it drifts S
along the TX/LA coasts into the Nrn Gulf. Meanwhile, sfc ridging
will linger over the region for one more day, before shifting
slowly E of the area Tuesday into the TN Valley and the SE CONUS.
Thus, max temps Monday will return closer to normal before rising
heights/subsidence beneath the upper ridge and a SSErly low level
flow returns on the backside of the departing sfc ridge results
in an extended period of above normal temps through the remainder
of the work week into the first half of next weekend.

The upper zonal jet will shift farther S across the CONUS for mid
and late week, which will nudge the flat ridging farther S into
Deep S TX and the NW Gulf, although the warming trend will
continue as higher dewpoints (55-60+ degrees) advect N into the
region. Despite the increase in low level moisture, dry conditions
will continue through much of the extended period, although a
pattern change looks to take shape for the latter half of next
weekend as a longwave trough begins to amplify over the Plains
which will traverse the MS Valley, reinforcing a cold front SE
into the region during the Saturday night/Sunday morning
timeframe. Attm, low level moisture return ahead of the front
looks to remain shallow, but may still be enough for isolated
-SHRA development over portions of SCntrl AR/N LA, before cooler,
drier, and more seasonal temps return by the end of the extended
period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the 03/12z TAF period...SKC conditions to prevail
areawide. Near calm winds this morning to become southerly 4 to 7
knots today and light and variable again overnight. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  44  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  41  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  45  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  70  40  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ051-060-061-
     072-073.

LA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ004>006-013-
     014-021.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05