920
FXUS64 KTSA 041144
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

 - Winter Weather Advisory for parts of northeast/east central
   Oklahoma Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances increase through Thursday morning with
   areas of a wintry mix Thursday morning especially near/north of
   the I-40 corridor.

 - Warmer Friday and Saturday with another cold front Saturday
   night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mid/upper level low near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle Wednesday
night will continue to track east northeast into the region
Thursday morning. Ahead of this wave, scattered precip was
spreading from west-southwest to east-northeast within the 50-70KT
500-mb flow. This precip was occurring north of the surface cold
front that moved through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Aloft
increasing elevated frontogenetic forcing in the 850-600-mb layer
interacting with an west-east oriented axis of increasing omega
over the same layer was aiding in broken bands of precip
approaching/moving into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Surface temperatures as of 06z Thursday were just/slightly above
freezing, while just above the surface, temperatures below 0C
were common through the column. In response, light rain on the
southern end transitioning to light snow/sleet to light snow were
developing on the northern end of the precip.

Through the morning hours, this banded precip will continue to
push into/through the CWA. Latest model soundings have indicated
a slightly stronger and faster wave as it moves into the region.
Also, more moisture and depth to the dendritic growth zone should
help to create more of a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet with
limited potential for freezing drizzle/rain compared to 24-hrs
ago. Latest short-term solutions continue to highlight the
Interstate 40 corridor into far northwest Arkansas having the
greater potential for banded wintry precip through the morning
hours, as this looks to be were the higher omega field sets up.
Within the banded precip, a higher precip rate with a snow/sleet
mix to snow is forecast with a quick accumulation of up toward 1
inch across parts of northeast/east central Oklahoma Thursday
morning. Stronger mid level lapse rates along with the potential
for very weak elevated instability could allow for a isolated
thunder potential within this banded precip. At this time, though
will keep thunder potentials less than 10 percent. In any case,
have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these locations early
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, which could impact the
Thursday morning commute. Farther north toward the Oklahoma Kansas
border, light snow/flurries are forecast, while farther south of
I-40 light rain is forecast Thursday morning.

There are indications that this banded precip could make it into
far northwest Arkansas before weakening mid to late morning. Due
to uncertainties with a more precise location of the banded
precip and lower confidence on eastward extent, have held off on
advisory conditions in far northwest Arkansas for now. This will
need to be monitored closely as latest data come in.

Late morning through the afternoon hours, the wintry mix looks to
spread more east/southeast and could reach locations along and
north of a McAlester to Poteau line including the Fort
Smith/Arkansas River valley. Little to no wintry impacts are
anticipated south of the I-40 corridor. During the afternoon
hours, precip should begin to exit the CWA while the mid/upper low
moves through the CWA. Some light flurries could redevelop under
the low as it moves across through the afternoon hours for
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Precip chances
finally taper off and exit late afternoon/early evening.

Surface temperatures through the day Thursday are not anticipated
to warm much with afternoon temperatures near/just above freezing
north of I-40, and mid/upper 30s common south of I-40. Cloud
cover looks to hold over the region into Thursday night before
trying to scatter out early Friday morning. Low temperatures in
the 20s to low 30s from north to south are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The wintry conditions are progged to be short-lived as southerly
low level flow quickly returns Friday with temperatures climbing
back into the 40s/near 50 deg across the CWA. The warming trend
continues into Saturday before another shortwave and cold front
move through. The next cold front is forecast for Saturday night
with temperatures falling into the 40s for much of the CWA
Sunday. There remains some indications within the mid range model
solutions of precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night behind
the frontal boundary. For now will continue with previous
forecasts and keep PoPs just north/northeast of the CWA. However,
this also bares watching as a window of wintry precip could
develop Saturday night if moisture return/precip potential shifts
southward.

Looking into next week, southerly winds again quickly return and
become breezy Tuesday, aiding in warmer temperatures spreading
back over the CWA. At the tail end of the forecast, extended model
solutions try to drop another wave through the region around the
middle part of next week. Again with much uncertainties that far
out, will continue with a dry forecast for the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Band of a rain snow mix extends through east central OK and far NW
AR with an expected trend of slowly shifting southward before a
gradual decay later this morning into early afternoon. A wide
range of ceilings currently resides across the local region. The
forecast will side toward MVFR to IFR conditions this morning with
an improvement into VFR levels during the afternoon. Clouds may be
slow to clear across western AR and the majority of guidance
develops a low stratus deck tonight across the western AR
terminals. Confidence is sufficiently high to include a similar
trend in the forecast but there also remains the potential for
persistent VFR conditions into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  27  50  32 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   38  32  49  33 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   36  27  52  34 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   33  23  49  27 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   35  27  47  32 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   34  27  47  32 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   34  28  49  33 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   33  25  47  29 /  10   0   0   0
F10   33  25  49  32 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   40  31  49  35 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ060-
     064>067-070-071.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07