483
FXUS64 KTSA 062348
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Low clouds and fog will continue at times through Monday.

 - A dry cold front Sunday will reinforce below normal temperatures.

 - Mild weather returns Tuesday to Thursday before another cold
   front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low clouds and fog are present across most of the area this morning,
keeping temperatures down in spite of a warm airmass overhead. Some
erosion of the low clouds and fog are expected by this afternoon,
but areas near the I-44 corridor in particular may stay clouded
over even if the fog lifts a bit. A cold front moving from NW to
SE during the late overnight period may briefly break up the low
clouds but they should fill right back in behind it. This cold
front will be dry, or at best, produce some light drizzle. High
temperatures today will remain in the 40s for most areas, with a
few areas touching 50 F that do clear out. Overnight lows will
mostly be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Temperature trends will be muted Sunday as cold advection partially
offsets diurnal heating. Between these factors and likely
persistence of low clouds for many areas, high temperatures will
only climb to the upper 30s to low 40s in the north. It`ll be a bit
warmer south of I-40 where the cold front will take longer to reach,
mostly near 50 F. Some isolated drizzle may occur but measurable
rain is not expected. Some clearing is expected Sunday night into
Monday, so low temperatures will be quite cold once again, with
low to mid 20s for most spots.

Monday will be a transition day, with any lingering low clouds
finally breaking up and light northerly flow gradually reversing to
southerly as the surface high moves southeast. With downsloping
southwesterly winds we should avoid the low clouds and warm
appreciably. Many locations will approach 60 F Tuesday to
Thursday, with low to mid 50s for northwest AR. Dry conditions
will persist through this period.

A potent dry cold front will then move through around Friday.
Ensemble guidance mostly agrees on this outcome, with uncertainties
about the strength. With that said, some guidance is very cold, and
would result in the coldest weather of the season so far. But as was
noted, it does look dry, with essentially zero support for any
precipitation as the upper level forcing remains well to the
northeast of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings in eastern Oklahoma and mostly clear conditions
in northwest Arkansas at the start of the period are anticipated
to become LIFR/IFR conditions tonight over the CWA. A dry cold
front is forecast to drop into northeast Oklahoma early Sunday
morning and push through the CWA during the day. Behind the
frontal passage, breezy north/northwest winds and conditions
improving to MVFR should develop from northwest to southeast
during the day Sunday. At this time, MVFR ceilings look to remain
through the end of the TAF period, though there is some
indications for parts of eastern Oklahoma to lift back to VFR at
end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  42  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   38  51  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   37  48  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  40  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   35  44  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   36  45  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   37  46  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   33  40  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  46  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20