830
FXUS64 KTSA 152252
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Temperatures quickly warm to above normal temperatures by mid
   week.

 - Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) east on Wednesday night
   and Thursday morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather
   prevails.

 - Limited to locally elevated fire weather potential this week
   and into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

GOES-19 visible satellite imagery shows a southwest-to-northeast
oriented deck of stratus has spread from central OK into portions
of northeast OK late this morning. The low cloud cover is expected
to stick around through this afternoon, drifting south and east
with time. Went ahead and lowered forecast highs today, especially
for portions of northeast OK. Otherwise, the forecast for the rest
of the day remains on track.

For tonight, light southerly winds and continued cloud cover will
help tonight be noticeably milder than previous nights, with low-
impact weather. Expect overnight lows near or just below seasonal
average, generally in the low-mid 30s, underneath partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Mild and mostly dry weather will continue through the middle part
of the workweek. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will drift
across the Southern Rockies and the Red River Valley through the
daytime Tuesday. Though the trough will pass over without much
fanfare, it will tap into slightly better moisture once the trough
axis moves over eastern OK and western AR. A few light rain
showers will be possible (10-20% chance), specifically across far
southeast OK and western AR through about sunrise Wednesday. Most
other locations remain dry. Total rainfall amounts, if any, should
be anywhere from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
Temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will soar above normal,
with highs generally in the mid-upper 50s on Tuesday and upper
50s/lower 60s on Wednesday.

A more potent upper-level trough/cut-off low will slide off the
Northern Rockies and over the Northern Plains late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. A strong surface low will move east
towards the Great Lakes and cold front will sweep south across the
Central Plains early Thursday morning. Guidance has been
persistent is showing warm sector showers developing Wednesday
evening/night across southeast/east OK and western AR as
isentropic lift increases ahead of the approaching cold front and
upper-level trough axis. The cold front pushes through the region
through the morning hours Thursday. Consensus in model data show
additional rain showers developing right along the frontal
boundary in far eastern OK and western AR. As such, bumped up PoPs
slightly (20-40%) from the current NBM solution for areas south
and east of Highway 69 in OK, including western AR. Once again,
rainfall amounts look to be light, non-impactful, and on the order
of a few hundredths of an inch to a couple of tenths of an inch.
The frontal passage will also bring gusty northerly winds with it.
Anticipate sustained northerly speeds between 15-20 mph, with
gusts up to 35 mph at times, through the afternoon Thursday.

Despite the cold front on Thursday, temperatures will remain near
or just slightly above normal Thursday night and during the
daytime Friday, with southerly winds returning by Friday morning.
The surface pressure gradient will tighten up Friday and Saturday
and breezy southerly winds will take place, even during the
evening and overnight hours Friday night. Persistent breezy winds
Thursday through Saturday will likely increase fire weather
concerns, especially during the afternoon hours each day when RH
values will be lowest (20-30% both Thursday and Friday
afternoons). Limited to locally elevated fire weather danger
concerns will be possible across much of the area. The forecast
for Saturday remains somewhat complex. Strong warm air advection
will occur during the morning and afternoon, ahead of the next
approaching cold front, where temperatures will warm into the mid-
upper 60s to lower 70s. However models show slight timing
differences with the front. For now will run with the operational
NBM solution. Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected to
continue late in the weekend and into early next week as well.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Areas of low clouds will continue to break up the next few hours
for eastern OK, but are more likely than not to hold on for
northwest Arkansas. These low clouds will thin out after daybreak
Tuesday, but mid and high level clouds will gradually thicken at
the same time. An isolated shower or sprinkle is possible for
northwest AR Tuesday afternoon, especially towards KFSM, but the
probability is too low to include in the TAF. Winds will remain
out of the south through the period for most terminals, with some
breeziness Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  57  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  57  41  62 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   35  58  42  62 /   0  10  10   0
BVO   27  56  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  55  39  60 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   31  56  40  61 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   33  57  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   31  53  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   34  58  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  56  43  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06