381
FXUS65 KVEF 212341
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
341 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers this afternoon across the region with another
  push from wraparound moisture overnight. This system will move
  south and east by tomorrow morning with stray showers lingering in
  southeast California and northwest Arizona tomorrow.

* A warming and drying trend will begin tomorrow evening, with
  breezy northerly winds over the Lower Colorado River Valley
  anticipated midweek thanks to northwest flow aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

The low pressure system that has brought ample moisture to the
region the last few days will meander into northern Mexico this
evening. Latest observations show over an inch of precipitation in
southern San Bernardino County and record daily precipitation
yesterday of 0.44 inches in Death Valley! Scattered showers will
briefly taper off this afternoon before redeveloping overnight,
with the best chance for precipitation over southeast California
and southern Mohave County. Another push of showers will move over
Clark County and northern Mohave County this evening between 8pm
PST and 12am PST, with around a few hundredths to up to a quarter
of an inch of additional precipitation anticipated tonight.
Limited instability with this system will keep lightning potential
minimal, with the best chance of thunderstorms over San
Bernardino County and northwest Arizona tomorrow evening. Areas of
localized nuisance flooding and ponding of water could occur with
heavier showers, primarily in southern San Bernardino County and
near the CA-AZ border.

This system will move east by tomorrow morning, with stray showers
continuing tomorrow across the region. Widespread drying will occur
by Sunday, with warmer temperatures anticipated through next week as
high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Northwest flow aloft
will help move shortwave troughs into the region, aiding in breezy
northwesterly wind development over the Lower Colorado River Valley
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Zonal flow will shift into the region by
Thanksgiving Day, with temperatures cooling slightly as another cut
off low looks to move into the area late next Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Periodic showers will continue through early Saturday
morning, with a window of higher confidence during the mid to late
evening for showers to develop and move over the terminal. These
showers would result in a brief period of ceilings around 3kft and
visibility to 6SM or less. Otherwise, outside of heavier showers,
expect BKN-OVC ceilings around 5kft, improving to around 8-12kft
Saturday morning as showers diminish. Light and variable winds
will settle out of the north around sunrise, with speeds
increasing to 10-12KT mid morning onward. Sporadic gusts to
15-18KT are expected with these winds, though expect gusts to
remain under 20KT. Ceilings will gradually improve through the
latter half of the forecast period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Unsettled weather
continues, with showers gradually drifting southward through
Saturday morning. SCT-BKN ceilings around 4-6kft will continue
through tonight, with lower ceilings around 2-3kft and visibility
around 5-6SM with heavier showers. Precipitation will diminish
from north to south, with ceilings improving to 8-12kft by mid
morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected, with winds
shifting to the north and northeast, increasing to around 8-12KT
for all but the western Mojave where variable/easterly winds will
continue. Expect gusts to 15-20KT in the Las Vegas Valley
Saturday, and to 20-25KT in the Lower Colorado River Valley.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Phillipson

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