028
FXUS65 KVEF 201757
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
957 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of light-to-moderate rainfall, isolated
  thunderstorms, and mountain snow above 6000 feet expected across
  the region today and Friday.

* Temperatures will moderate to within a degree of seasonal normals
  over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
  southeastern Pacific Ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Another closed low pressure system will push southeastward along the
California Coast and into the Desert Southwest today and Friday,
returning light-to-moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms to
the valleys. Pre-frontal snow levels will hover between 6500 and
7000 feet, with post-frontal snow levels dropping to 5500 to 6000
feet. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include the eastern
Sierra Slopes, White Mountains, and Sheep Range above 6000 feet.
Expect snow-covered roads above 6000 feet, with particular concerns
including State Route 168 to Aspendell and through Westgard Pass, as
well as State Routes 156, 157, and 158 in the Spring Mountains. This
system will dig further south than the previous two systems, with
high resolution guidance continuing to trend further south with
the primary rain band with each run. Latest runs leave much of the
southeastern Great Basin dry, with a sharp gradient of rain / no
rain across southwestern Nevada. For this reason, there is low
confidence in rainfall totals for the valleys of southern Nevada,
with the most reasonable wet-case scenario showing around a
quarter of an inch for Las Vegas and the most reasonable dry-case
scenario showing 0.00". Greatest rainfall amounts are expected
across Inyo and San Bernardino counties this afternoon and
evening, where antecedent conditions will make them particularly
vulnerable to additional rainfall. Expect isolated instances of
flash flooding beneath heavy rain and thunderstorms that develop,
which will favor the higher terrain. Precipitation will continue
overnight across our southern zones before gradually pushing
southward out of our forecast area Friday morning. Wrap-around
bands of precipitation will bring light showers to the region
Friday afternoon, with minimal impacts expected.

The aforementioned closed low will push eastward through Sonora on
Saturday, allowing a ridge of high pressure to nose into the Desert
Southwest from the southeastern Pacific. Ridging will persist
through the remainder of the weekend into the start of next week,
which will allow afternoon high temperatures to moderate back toward
seasonal normals. This ridge will result in a dry northwest flow
aloft, which is conducive for the passage of shortwave wind-makers.
Expect occasional gusty afternoons as a result, particularly along
the Colorado River Valley, with otherwise dry conditions heading
into Thanksgiving.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Increasing clouds are expected through this evening,
with SCT-BKN ceilings around 10-12kft early in the period expected
to gradually decrease to 4-5kft by early this evening. Another
round of rain is expected, with rain/snow confined to the higher
terrain surrounding the Valley this evening into tonight, with
rain showers moving into the Valley closer to 09-10Z. Expect
ceilings to drop to around 3-4kft, possibly lower in heavier
showers, with visibility around 6SM at times. Showers begin to
dissipate mid morning, with ceilings slow to improve/scatter out
through the afternoon. Winds will largely remain light and
somewhat variable, settling out of the east-southeast this
afternoon, and the northeast on Friday.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Deteriorating flight
conditions are expected through this evening, with increasing
clouds and ceilings falling from 10-12kft early in the period to
3-5kft this evening and tonight. One notable exception is BIH in
the Owens Valley, where ceilings between 1-2kft are expected for
the entire forecast period, with showers moving in this afternoon
and continuing through mid morning before slowly tapering off.
Elsewhere, showers are expected to overspread the area from
northwest to southeast this evening and tonight, with visibility
reductions to 4-6SM in heavier rain showers expected, as well as
potential for ceilings under 3kft at times. Improvement will be
slow and gradual, largely beyond the end of the forecast period.
Winds will be somewhat variable, with speeds around 5-10KT,
increasing to 10-12KT through portions of the Colorado River
Valley and western Mojave Desert late tonight through Friday
morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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