Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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405 FXUS62 KMFL 091358 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Going forecast remains in good shape so no changes are planned with the mid-morning update. The 12Z MFL RAOB indicates a fairly robust temperature inversion around 2000-2500 ft with a dry and stable airmass above that level. Expect that the AM stratus deck located below this inversion will gradually scatter out/transition to strato-cu later this AM with mostly sunny conditions expected this afternoon and the aforementioned capping limiting storm potential along the sea breeze intersection. The airmass remains quite warm as evidenced by 850 temperatures >95th percentile so widespread highs int he 90s can be expected today, with mid 90s likely over the Interior. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An expansive mid level ridge centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will build over South Florida today, while surface high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. With a northwesterly wind flow aloft, a drier air mass will keep the chances of showers and storms very limited, however, there may be just enough lingering lower level moisture across the Lake Okeechobee region to support an isolated shower or storm where the sea breezes interact during the afternoon. Any shower or storm that does develop will be short lived and will quickly diminish after sunset due to loss of diurnal heating. With many areas seeing a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures today will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the coastal areas while the interior sections rise into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values may reach the triple digits especially across interior portions of Southwest Florida in the afternoon. On Friday, the mid-level ridge will remain in control over South Florida with dry conditions, but a mid-level shortwave and associated surface low will drop into the Southeast US. This will result in surface winds over our area turning southwesterly, and allow high temperatures on Friday to be a bit warmer than on Thursday. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with most of the metro area in the low to mid 90s. Interior areas will reach the mid or even upper 90s. Heat index values will reach triple digits across most of South Florida during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The long anticipated weak cold front arrives in Florida on Saturday morning before stalling over the Peninsula. This boundary will be a highly weak one and thus not have strong forcing, plus the upper level pattern will be lacking energy. Therefore, limited convective showers and storms are expected across the region for the weekend. There is likely to be isolated convection due to sufficient moisture (PWATs ~ 1.2-1.5") and some locations could reach their local convective temperature with warm diurnal heating on the menu on Saturday. However, cloud coverage with the approaching front could prevent this warming. The strength of the cap, along with above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture, will be the determining factors. Weak ridging will rebuild on Sunday, inhibiting rain chances for Sunday. While a relatively benign upper level pattern is projected to remain in place through the middle of next week, there are several opportunities for quick impulses to interact with the adequate moisture pooling and hot temperatures. Thus, with the daily sea breezes, there is chance for daily isolated to scattered convective showers and thunderstorms. The temperatures will continue to trend above normal with daily highs, through the long term, will reach the low to mid 90s for most locations. Despite the frontal passage, Saturday will is forecast to remain warm due to it`s weakness. Heat indices have the potential to climb into the 100s on several days through the long term period. However, at this moment, no counties are expected to reach heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although some periodic MVFR cigs may impact the east coast terminals through about 14Z. SErly winds around 10-15kts should prevail over the east coast terminals today, with SWrly winds 10-15kts at KAPF. Winds then trend light and variable again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the region. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the first part of the weekend as a frontal boundary moves closer to the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today, while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in place across the beaches of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions across these areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 91 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 92 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 88 74 91 75 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 92 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 90 73 95 74 / 10 0 10 20 Boca Raton 90 74 94 75 / 0 0 10 20 Naples 90 75 89 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...Carr