Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 030220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



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