Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241323
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
923 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and will move east
by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region
later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night.
An upper level disturbance will cross the area Tuesday. Weak high
pressure will build back into the region for the middle of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:25 AM Update...decreased cloud cover over coastal areas to go
mostly sunny throughout the area. Also raised temps through mid
morning a couple degrees.

Orgnl Disc: We dropped the rest of the mention of patchy fog for
the srn ptn of the FA for erly this morn, with NW sfc winds
bringing drier air even to the coast. Otherwise, we xpct ptly to
msly sunny skies tdy with abv normal hi temps contg. In fact, we
raised hi temps a couple of deg F based on current temps a few deg
warmer erly this morn than prev fcst and the warm bias of obsvd hi
temps compared to fcst hi temps ovr the last couple of days.

Skies will be clear this eve into the ovrngt hrs with lgt winds,
with increasing hi cldnss late tngt as warm advcn moisture hi alf
crosses E ovr the top of the 500mb ridge. Ovrngt low temps will
be a little cooler, but still slightly abv avg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay at 12Z Mon morning will
move into western Quebec Monday afternoon with a warm front to
lift into western Maine by 00z Tue. A cold front will follow
Monday night with the front to push off the coast Tue morning. A
mid to upper level trough will follow and will cross northern
Maine. Expect the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm
Monday with a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday night. Right now it looks like the most unstable air Monday
afternoon remains to the west of the area across southern Quebec
and NH and VT. The precipitable H20 values climb to over 1.5
inches, so any thunderstorms may contain some heavy downpours. Any
instability Mon night appears to be aloft and fairly modest so at
this time not expecting any severe weather. will add the mention
of heavy rain with the storms Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. On Tuesday, the freezing levels lower, and with the
upper trough passage there is some instability and expect
scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly across the northern
zones with the potential that any storms may contain small hail
and have added the small hail into the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure follows Tue night into Wed, and it looks
mainly dry. The next cold front approaches Thu and will slowly
move across the area Fri and may stall out across the region into
the start of the weekend, but the models remain uncertain, and
forecaster confidence late in the week into the start of the
weekend is low. There will likely be some weak and ill defined
impulses that track along the frontal boundary that are impossible
to discern with any clarity at this time range. For now will
stick very close to the inherited forecast and a multi model
ensemble blend. Temperatures mid to late week will average a
little above average, but no extreme heat or humidity is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites tdy thru tngt.

SHORT TERM: VFR to start the day Mon. MVFR at times later Mon into
Mon night in scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief IFR
possible in any heavier rain. VFR should return to the Downeast
terminals Tue, but with variable conditions persisting at the
northern terminals. Predominately VFR for Tue night into Thu
morning with MVFR possible again in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thu afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd tdy thru tngt. Any marine ST/fog erly
this morn should lift and dissipate by mid to late morn.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through the end of the week.  There will be times
when there is some fog on the waters late in the week along with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...VJN/CB
Marine...VJN/CB



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