Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 040517
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING
RAINFALL TO DOWNEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
120 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE. CEILING HAS
LIFTED SOME AND APPEARS TO BE THINNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WNW.
NAM12 DOING WELL W/THE CLOUDS AND USED THE BTV SKYTOOL FOR SKY
COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOCLDY OVRNGT AND WHERE BREAKS ARE ABLE TO DVLP WL LKLY SEE
PATCHY FOG SET IN. HV INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN FOR ENTIRE AREA BTWN
06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT WITH DWPTS RMNG IN THE U30S AND TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN TO NR DWPT VALUES TONIGHT.

HIPRES WL BUILD EAST INTO QUEBEC TOMORROW MRNG KEEPING ERLY FLOW
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CLDS TO THIN DRG THE AFTN BUT
STILL EXPECTING MOCLDY CONDS WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. MAXES WL
CLIMB TO NR NORMAL ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S ACRS THE NORTH
AND U50S FOR DOWNEAST AREAS, COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE COAST. ONE WAVE WILL MAKE ITS PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, THOUGH EXPECT
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE TO HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSING ON DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL PULL
AWAY BY FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING US A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY EVEN SEE SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS, GIVEN
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AS WE SEE SOME SUN
AND WINDS LESSEN A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD OVER MAINE AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD CORE LOW WILL BE CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF NJ. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE NJ COASTAL AREA AS IT
SLOWLY FILLS...IT WILL SPIN OFF OCCASIONAL TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. A LOW OVER
THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE SE
TO THE ST LAWRENCE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WRN MAINE/QUEBEC BOARDER. THE REMAINING ENERGY
FROM THE FILLING LOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN MAINE SUN MRNG AS THESE
TWO SYSTEM COMBINE INTO ONE. BY EARLY MON MRNG THOUGH THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE...THE TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND LOCATION
OF THE LOW IS A BIT OFF. THE GFS MOVES THE SFC LOW TO THE MOUTH OF
THE ST LAWRENCE...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SW TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER CO-LOCATES THE SFC AND UPPER LOW OVER
QUEBEC NW OF NRN MAINE. ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE. MON EVNG BOTH MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING WRAP AROUND PCPN INTO NRN AND ERN
MAINE. TUES MRNG HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...A
FEW REMAINING SHOWER OVER NERN MAINE...WHICH WILL CLEAR THE AREA
TUES AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AT BGR AND BHB, EXPECT LOW END VFR THIS EVENING LIKELY GIVING WAY
TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP VISIBILITY
TO 4-5SM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY RMN BLO SCA CRITERIA THRU
THE DAY TOMORROW.

SHORT TERM: A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT


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