Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251515
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1115 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across northern Maine this morning will move east
into the Maritimes by this evening. Low pressure along the North
Carolina Coast this morning will move slowly up the eastern
seaboard and will dissipate in the Gulf of Maine Thursday. A
cold front will cross the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:15 AM update...Raised temps across the area a couple degrees
and also backed off on the advance of rain through central areas
this afternoon. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Previous discussion...
A strong surface ridge stretches from central Quebec into
northern Maine early this morning. The ridge slides east into
the Canadian Maritimes today. Low pressure along the North
Carolina coast will move slowly up the eastern seaboard to the
Delmarva coast by 12Z Wed morning. Sunshine will fade behind
increasing clouds across the Crown of Maine today, but any
showers should hold off north of Houlton till after sunset.
Patchy fog along the coast will be followed by some breaks of
sunshine that will give way to a cloudy sky by around midday. A
bit of light rain or drizzle will develop mid to late day across
the Downeast Region. Wet weather in the form of rain will
overspread all of northern and eastern Maine tonight along with
some patchy fog. Highs today will mostly be from 50 to 55
degrees, but will likely hold in the 40s along the immediate
shoreline. Lows tonight with the clouds and rain will be fairly
uniform across the region and within a few degrees of 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain will be ongoing at the beginning of the period as an area
of low pressure lifts northeast along the east coast during
Wednesday. The steady rain should taper to showers during
Wednesday afternoon as the low continues to weaken as it lifts
toward southern New England and the upper low moves east of the
region. Abundant low level moisture will remain across the
region as a moist southerly flow continues through Thursday.
This will keep plenty of low clouds across the region Wednesday
night through Thursday along with patchy fog and drizzle as well
as a few showers from time to time. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the low to mid 50s and the rise to into the lower 60s on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues Thursday night and Friday ahead of
an approaching front from the west. Expect mainly cloudy skies
and scattered showers. It dries out briefly Friday night with
more showers possible Saturday associated with the next front.
High pressure builds back in on Sunday followed by more showers
on Monday as the next front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today with the only possible exception patchy
early morning fog at KBHB that may briefly cause IFR conditions.
Conditions will lower to MVFR this evening and to IFR tonight
from south to north across the region.

SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR expected in low clouds/patchy fog and
drizzle Wednesday through Thursday. VFR is expected to return
Friday and Saturday but MVFR is also possible in scattered
showers both days.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory starts at 8 pm this evening and
continues into the short term portion of the forecast as low
pressure lifts slowly north toward the region. Both the wind
and seas will be on the increase later today and tonight as low
pressure begins to move slowly up the coast from the south.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect through
Thursday morning, mainly for seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts through Wednesday night are expected to range
from around a third of an inch across far northwest areas to as
much as one to one and one-half inches across downeast areas. No
flooding issues are expected at this time although some
minor rises on area streams and rivers are likely, especially
across northern areas where some snow remains in place.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long period southerly fetch will develop late tonight and
continue into Thursday as low pressure slowly moves up the
coast.  Astronomical tides are high, and minor splash over is
possible around the times of high tide late Wednesday evening
and again early in the afternoon Thursday. Coastal flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda
Hydrology...Duda
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CB


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