Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 260243
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
943 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO INITIALLY
SLOW THE RATE OF TEMPS FALL PRIOR TO 2 AM...THEN MERGE TO UNCHGD
FCST LOWS AT 7-8 AM...BASED ON 9 PM OBS WHICH INDICATES WINDS
REDUCING THE RATE OF TEMP FALL LATE THIS EVE. REST OF FCST UNCHGD
ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: COLDER AIR IS NOW RUSHING INTO THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT, THEY WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AND AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -25F TO -30F RANGE OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE
THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD AND WINDY BUT WILL NOT MEET
THE ADVISORY CRITERIA; WIND CHILLS WILL BE -10F TO -20F IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO +5F
DOWNEAST TO -5F TO -15F IN NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE; THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS WILL LIKELY APPROACH
- 20F.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, LEADING TO A SUNNY BUT COLD DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STORM. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE
SEEN TODAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT
EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS. THE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY WHILE OCCLUDING AND BEING CAPTURED BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW. DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY
PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH DOWNEAST...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST...HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SURFACE/UPPER LOWS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 18 TO 24
INCHES DOWNEAST...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...TO 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY
MESO-SCALE SNOW BANDS LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS COULD OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES,
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH UP TO
A FOOT POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MORE MODEST AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHICH MAY GET SOME RAIN OR SLEET MIXING IN
DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS
MEANS THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FROM NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE LIKELY. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE WHERE SNOW STREAMERS COMING
OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR
OCCASIONALLY THROUGH 00Z.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED SINCE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 35 KTS.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO
THE UPCOMING SYSTEM; THIS IS WHAT WE WANT PEOPLE TO FOCUS ON.
HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT SINCE
MODERATE ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LESSEN THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



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