Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 250504
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING NOW, THOUGH MANY AREAS
NOT BY MUCH. HAD TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EXCEPT TEMPS TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND
WARM THINGS UP.

A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY RAIN IS PRESENT ON RADAR, WITH
RAIN PRESENTLY LIGHTENING UP IN BANGOR AND GREENVILLE AND THE BACK
EDGE ADVANCING EAST. WE HAVE 100 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT, AND OPTED TO KEEP THE 100 PERCENT CHANCES GIVEN THAT
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN
AROUND DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DID, HOWEVER, REMOVE HEAVY
AT TIMES WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE
NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING
OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB
OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG
AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF
OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU
AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD
APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE
OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM.

LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH
MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW
ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD
ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST
AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN
QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A
WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER
NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL
MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO
NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE.
BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN, DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. LOCAL MVFR, BUT PREDOMINANTLY WE WILL BE SEEING IFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP SO
FAR, AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE. STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT, THOUGH.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE
JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH-
UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR
48F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN
CLIMATE...VJN


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