392
FXUS63 KBIS 110850
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
350 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today. Breezy winds
  could return to the north and James River Valley. An isolated
  shower or thunderstorm possible later today through this
  evening.

- Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, along with
  continued mild temperatures and less breezy winds.

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s possible across the
  northeast on Monday morning.

- Near average (highs mid to upper 60s and lows near 40)
  temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Surface low to the north will bring a breezy and warm westerly
flow today. The result will be mainly dry conditions,
temperatures warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and
increasing mid to high clouds from warm air advection. Winds
across the north and James River Valley could become breezy out
of the west today, although should remain below advisory
criteria. These winds combined with RH dropping into the 20s
could bring some increased fire weather concerns, although green
fuels will overall limit the fire weather threat. Later today
through this evening surface trough moves through along with a
weak cold front. This could be the focus for isolated showers
and thunderstorms during this time period. These would have to
overcome quite an abundant amount of dry air. Place in some
slight PoPs to account for these chances. There is enough
instability for some lightning and some gusty winds given an
inverted v sounding. This would highly depend on if more
developed storms can get going. Overall the severe weather
threat is low. Shower and thunderstorm activity look to diminish
after sunset tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Cooler northwest flow will be in place for
Sunday. Weak disturbances in this flow could still bring an
isolated shower and perhaps thunderstorm during the day and
evening hours. Instability looks quite limited for Sunday, thus
severe weather is not expected at this time. Temperatures will
slightly cool yet remain mild on Sunday. And winds will switch
to the north and be less breezy. Low afternoon RH is also
expected for Sunday, although the lighter winds and green fuels
should limit the fire weather threat. Sunday night then looks
generally dry. Cooler air from the north will bring overnight
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some northeastern areas may need
to be monitored for the potential of some patchy to areas of
frost.

Clusters still indicating a zonal to norther trough like pattern
for next week. This could bring near daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms along with near average temperatures. NBM PoPs
are currently highest to start the week and end the week, with a
brief lull during the middle of the week. This would support
some deterministic model guidance of a brief ridge moving
between two troughs. Clusters should timing of this to still be
uncertain, thus the lingering PoPs through the week. CSU-MLP
showing the first disturbance could perhaps bring an isolated
stronger storm to start the week. Shear values are modest,
although instability is somewhat lacking. Still something to
monitor. Spreads in temperatures do still remain large for next
week given the uncertainty of the timing in the two waves. There
is however confidence in at least near normal temperatures. If
more ridging can build in, then perhaps some slightly above
normal temperatures are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period.
Mainly clear skies will be found tonight, with increasing clouds
expected from north to south Saturday morning. Mid to high level
clouds could then linger through the day and evening Saturday.
An isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm is
possible Saturday, although confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light winds tonight will
become a breezy westerly wind on Saturday, diminishing Saturday
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin