Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
276 FXUS63 KBIS 101926 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 226 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Sunday. - Average (mid to upper 60s) temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Strong northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a clipper/S/WV embedded trough moving southeast across the Upper Midwest. Outside of some diurnally drive CU, a mostly sunny sky prevails with very comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of days, with an embedded wave moving through later this weekend bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday. Model ensembles for next week still show a zonal flow pattern, with increasing probability of decent S/WV moving through the region Tue-Wed, increasing the chances for showers/thunderstorms. Along with this, temperatures will trend slightly cooler with and in the wake of this wave, but then should rebound some with upper level ridging favored west. How much we warm and also precipitation chances remain uncertain as the ridge will be just to our west and much will depend how far east the transition zone moves. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the 18Z forecast period. Mainly clear skies are expected today, with periods of high clouds and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH