Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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768 FXUS63 KBIS 080238 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 938 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers are expected to continue across western and northern North Dakota this evening, with isolated to scattered showers south central into the James River Valley. - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Showers continue to rotate around the low, but coverage continues to be on a gradual decrease. This was reflected in previous forecast, and the forecast trend continues to be on track. Therefore, only minimal changes were needed. In addition, the wind advisory for far southwest North Dakota was allowed to expire as winds continue to gradually diminish over that area. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Deep low now centered to the north and a little west of Bismarck as of this writing, with rain showers continuing to circulate around it. Heaviest showers at this time remain over western and far northern portions of the state, more scattered over central North Dakota. We did have a period late this afternoon/early evening where the SPC non-supercell tornado parameter was elevated over parts of south central and southwest North Dakota, and we did receive a report and video of a funnel cloud near Dodge, but it never reached the ground. As the evening continues on, the threat will continue to diminish given the low level lapse rates/instability will be on the decrease as we cool. For early evening update, main change was to adjust shower coverage with current trends. Also, winds do remain quite gusty over the far southwest at Bowman and Hettinger, so will let the wind advisory continue until expiration in a couple hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder of the day today before retrograding back to the south. Very windy conditions that are presently occurring in the far southwest should diminish quickly this evening. Showers will persist over much of western through central North Dakota, especially in the west and north. A line of thunderstorms is trying to develop mainly along and north of Highway 200. However, with mostly cloudy skies through the day, instability will remain limited. Therefore, the threat of severe weather remains low as any hail will likely remain smaller than quarter size. That said, with relatively cold air aloft, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if a few cold air funnels don`t develop near the low this afternoon, while a landspout or two isn`t entirely out of the question either. Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. As a result, isolated to scattered wrap-around rain showers will persist through Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Beyond that, expect a west to east tilted ridge to traverse over the Northern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. This will lead to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the end of the workweek through early next week. That said, weak shortwave energy flattening the ridge could provide light rain over the far eastern forecast area Friday afternoon, although no mentionable PoPs are present in the forecast at this time. Breezy to windy conditions are also expected Friday. By this weekend, temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid 70s across most of the forecast area. These are seasonably warm highs that are around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Lows look to remain mostly in the 40s, which is near- average. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Numerous to scattered rain showers continue over the area, with most of the rain showers over western and northern portions of North Dakota. This will result in areas of decreased visibility, possibly down to IFR levels for brief periods of time. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected tonight into Wednesday over western and northern North Dakota including the KXWA, KDIK, and KMOT terminals. Over south central North Dakota including the KBIS terminal, a period of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected at KJMS, though a heavier shower could cause a brief period of MVFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...JJS