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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280917
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
417 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances (60 to 90 percent) for rain across south central
  North Dakota west of the Missouri River into the James River
  Valley this afternoon into tonight, with medium chances (30
  to 50 percent) elsewhere across central North Dakota. Dry
  across western North Dakota.

- An active weather pattern will be over the region through next
  week, with daily chances for precipitation and slightly below
  normal temperatures.

- Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across
  southwest and far south central North Dakota during the day
  Tuesday, due to gusty westerly winds and low relative
  humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Currently, S/WV mid level ridge over the region with an upper
level low developing into the Central Plains. Sfc ridge across
the Northern Plains results in light winds and temperatures in
the 30s. Area of low stratus over south central ND including
the James River Valley early this morning, with the clouds
slowly developing west and slightly north. Increasing clouds
also expected from the south this morning as the upper low moves
into central Nebraska and lead waves lift north ahead of the
low.

The closed low will continue to slowly lift north/northeast
today across central Nebraska, then into the eastern Dakotas
tonight. Associated sfc low will track slightly east of the
upper low, with a sfc ridge remaining over the western Dakotas.
This setup will keep precipitation chances confined to mainly
far south central and eastern areas of the state, with the James
River Valley seeing the higher chances and QPF potential
through tonight. Western and portions of central ND look to
remain mainly dry, more under the influence of the sfc ridge,
along with less cloud cover and warmer temperatures. A rain/snow
mix will is also forecast for tonight/Monday morning across the
James River Valley as boundary layer temperatures cool into the
30s with temperatures aloft already below freezing. No impacts
expected.

After precipitation moves off to our east Monday morning, a S/WV
mid level ridge will move into the region, providing a brief
period of clearing and dry weather for Monday afternoon, along
with temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s west, but will
remain cooler in the east (low/mid 50s) due to lingering cloud
cover and lack of WAA.

A very active weather pattern will then be in place for the
remainder of the work week, as an upper level jet steers multiple
waves across the Northern Plains within a broad quasi-
stationary trough pattern over the northwest and north central
CONUS. Daily chances for precipitation are forecast, along with
temperatures at or slightly below normal (highs in the 50s to
lower 60s).

The first of these waves will bring high chances for showers
(60-90%) across all but the southwest Monday night into Tuesday,
with a 30-50% chance for at least half an inch of rain across
northwest and north central ND along and north of Highway 2. On
the backside of this sytem`s associated sfc trough, strong
westerly winds will develop during the day Tuesday, especially
west into south central areas of ND, where eventually we will
likely need wind headlines if current trends hold. In addition,
models remain consistent (if not trending drier) with low
relative humidity below 30 percent collocated with the strongest
winds, and as low as the upper teens far southwest. Thus will
continue to mention critical fire weather possible in the Fire
Weather Forecast and HWO with this product issuance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low VFR to MVFR ceilings are impacting KBIS and KJMS early this
morning, and look to continue through much of the 06Z period.
Currently VFR at KDIK, though MVFR cigs will be possible here as
well this morning. VFR currently at KMOT and KXWA, which will
persist through the 06Z period.

A storm system lifting north into the Central Plains will
spread clouds and rain showers north into the region Sunday and
Sunday night. Periods of light rain will mainly be possible at
KJMS and KBIS, with some visibility reduction possible at KJMS
later in the day Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH