004
FXUS63 KBIS 120545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers possible Sunday, along with continued mild
  temperatures.

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s possible across the
  northeast on Monday morning.

- Near average (highs mid to upper 60s and lows near 40)
  temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An isolated shower may be found along an advancing cold front
during the early overnight hours, although for the most part
mainly dry conditions are expected tonight. This front will also
bring some increased cloud cover through the night. This could
impact those viewing northern lights, although some breaks in
the clouds may be found at times through the night. Low
temperatures tonight will generally be mid 40s to mid 50s.

UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

With the loss of instability as the sun begins to set, no
lightning has been observed in the forecast area for a while.
Therefore, removed remaining mentions of thunder. A line of
showers is continuing to move southeastward through the forecast
area. However, rain overall is pretty light and won`t be
measurable for most locations. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest
radar trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A line of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms has
entered northwestern and north central ND along a cold frontal
boundary. As a result, increased PoPs and thunder mentions along
this line over the next few hours. Thunder is likely to end
this evening as the sun sets, although showers may continue for
a few hours after that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded wave moving
through the region. Right now just some high clouds moving
through, with temperatures well into the 70s and touching the
lower 80s.

Aforementioned wave and associated cold FROPA may bring a
chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later today
through this evening. These would have to overcome quite an
abundant amount of dry air in the boundary layer, but could be
done so will maintain some low POPs through 06Z.

Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of
days, with another embedded wave moving through later this
weekend bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms again on Sunday.

A S/WV mid level ridge and weak area of sfc high pressure
follows the FROPA Sunday night/Monday morning, and will set the
stage for some possible freezing temperatures/frost across the
northeast.

Model ensembles for next week show a zonal yet active flow
pattern, with the upper level jet aloft steering multiple waves
across the region resulting in periodic precipitation chances
and near/below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. An
advancing cold front will bring some increased cloud cover
tonight, mainly in the mid and upper levels. This will also
switch winds to the north northwest. Northerly winds will then
be found through the day Sunday, along with some mid to high
level clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
Sunday afternoon and evening, although confidence is not high
enough to place in the TAFs at this time. Winds will go light
and transition to more easterly Sunday night, while sky cover
becomes mainly clear.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Anglin