977
FXUS63 KBIS 110240
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry
  conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or
  thunderstorm possible on Sunday.

- Average (mid to upper 60s) temperatures expected next week,
  as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No updates to the forecast were needed for this late evening
update. Mostly clear skies and modest north northwesterly winds
are mainly observed at this time.


UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Other than some minor updates to the sky grids to account for
the latest satellite trends, the forecast remains on track.
Diurnal cumulus across the southwest and James River Valley has
begun to diminish, while gusty northeasterly winds will weaken
over the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Strong northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a
clipper/S/WV embedded trough moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest. Outside of some diurnally drive CU, a mostly sunny sky
prevails with very comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s.

Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of
days, with an embedded wave moving through later this weekend
bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Sat night through Sunday.

Model ensembles for next week still show a zonal flow pattern,
with increasing probability of decent S/WV moving through the
region Tue-Wed, increasing the chances for showers/thunderstorms.
Along with this, temperatures will trend slightly cooler with
and in the wake of this wave, but then should rebound some with
upper level ridging favored west. How much we warm and also
precipitation chances remain uncertain as the ridge will be just
to our west and much will depend how far east the transition
zone moves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VRF conditions are anticipated throughout the 00Z TAF period. Some
high clouds will begin to intrude into the north and push south
overnight, otherwise mainly fair weather cumulus is anticipated.
Winds will diminish this evening and overnight while turning to the
southwest, then strengthen Saturday afternoon and become
westward, with gusts up to 25 mph expected at times.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Adam