Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 311125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BUNDLE THE TRICK OR TREATERS UP TONIGHT AS IT PROMISES TO BE A
CHILLY ONE. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF PCPN OVER WI -
SNOW/RAIN - WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MICH THIS
MORNING. PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF WI...BUT EXIT BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY START TO
HALLOWEEN...BUT SHOULD START SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THE KIDS VENTURE
OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S
THOUGH...WITH THE WINDS MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET A FEW DEGREE BUMP FROM THE COLD READINGS OF
TODAY/SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL FOR THE START OF
NOVEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS
ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...HUGGING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH INTO ILL. A SFC FRONT WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED VIA THE GFS WITH THE
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY MON EVENING AND HIGHLIGHTED ON THE 900 MB SFC.
FAIRLY BAGGY SFC GRADIENT THOUGH. GOOD PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THOUGH THE LAYERS WILL ADD SOME LIFT. MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
AND GEM SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD THE MAIN PIECE
OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DECENT SHOT
FOR PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS RIPPLE...AND THUS IS DRIER FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 31.00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS PCPN AXIS TO
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...ALA THE GFS/GEM. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
FOR A WET NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
STILL AMPLE TIME FOR ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL STAY
WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND
MORE ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
AROUND THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD...DRY CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT 3K-4K FT STRATO-CU WILL LINGER
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC AND GOOD VFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CENTER PASSING OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THRU
THE AFTERNOON THEN GENERALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS



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