Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 081808
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING OVERALL...BUT STILL SOME PROBLEM AREAS
FROM BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUED IN THE 30-35KT RANGE.
BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MITCHELL AND
FLOYD COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IA. A WINTER WEATER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MN...AND CHICKASAW/HOWARD COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IA. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM THESE AREAS EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT 3 AM...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN
TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. DURING THIS TIME...THE WINDS WERE GUSTING ANYWHERE
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. SINCE THEN...THE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
25 TO 35 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
VISIBILITIES HAVE RANGED FROM 3 TO 10 MILES WHEN THERE WAS NO
SNOW OCCURRING...AND FROM 3/4 TO 3 MILES WHEN SNOW WAS OCCURRING
AT THE TIME. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY
AND THEN A QUICK DROP 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WE
ARE THINKING THAT SOME OF THE SNOW PACK MAY HAVE BECOME GLACIATED
AND THIS IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT THE WIND CAN PICK UP.
FOR EXAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE...WE DROPPED A RULER INTO THE SNOW
PACK THIS MORNING AND IT SANK 3 TO 4 INCHES INTO IT. WE TRIED A
SIMILAR THING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE RULER COULD ONLY PENETRATE A
HALF INCH AT MOST. BY THIS TIME...THE TEMPERATURE HAD ALREADY
DROPPED 12 DEGREES FROM 34 TO 22 DEGREES. IN A RECENT CALL TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT IN OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...MOST REPORTED THAT
SNOW COVERED ROADS WERE THE PRIMARY ISSUE THAT THEY WERE HAVING.
THIS WAS DUE TO THE NEW SNOW AND FROM DRIFTING. VISIBILITIES WERE
PRIMARILY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. HOWEVER THERE WERE SOME WHITE
OUTS BEING REPORTED AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WERE
REPORTED IN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE IN SOME PLACES
THE VISIBILITIES WERE 3 TO 5 HUNDRED FEET.

FOR TODAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THEY GRADUALLY LIGHTENED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
DUE WEAK TO MODERATE OMEGA EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS A RESULT...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 25 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH /MAINLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA/. DUE TO SOME OF THE GLACIATION BY THE SNOW
PACK...THINKING THAT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM THE SNOW. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THAT THESE HAVE
ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO THINKING THAT THE SNOW WILL
PRIMARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS OPTED...OPTED TO REPLACE THE BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOWER AND DODGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND HOWARD AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
MEANWHILE LEFT THE BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR TODAY FOR MITCHELL
AND FLOYD COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...BECAUSE WE CONTINUED TO
RECEIVE LOW VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT IN THESE AREAS
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LOCATED IN THESE
COUNTIES.

WITH STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
/ABOVE 80 PERCENT/. WHILE THE SNOW CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING HIS TIME PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST HIGH WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ON MOST NIGHTS. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE SOME DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MAY OCCUR. AS FAR
AS WIND CHILLS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY TIME IN
WHICH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR EYE ON A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EAST...SO IT
PRODUCES LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
MEANWHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE THIS ZONE FURTHER WEST AND THE
SNOW REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA. SINCE THERE REMAINS LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER GLANCING ARCTIC COLD SHOT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY...AND THEN A WARM UP LOOKS TO OCCUR AS A MADDEN JULIAN IN
PHASE 5 AND THE EL NINO WORK TOGETHER TO BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM UP...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RATHER
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ009-
     019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS


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