Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 230749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
249 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main concern in the short-term is any chance for showers today as
the last remnants of short wave energy move through. Satellite
water vapor imagery shows the main vorticity center moving through
the UP of Michigan, but another lobe of PVA is dropping southeast
across MB and western ON. Regional radar loops at 0730z show the
last remnants of convection moving through northern WI with the
short wave. Do anticipate this activity will continue to shift
east with time, so that nothing remains for the forecast area by
daybreak. However, with cooler air and some limited lift today,
could be some pop up showers east of the river today. For now will
maintain low POPS to account for this possibility. Otherwise, also
expecting a band of clouds to rotate through the region today as
the aforementioned waves move across. Clouds, cooler temps, and
possible showers all suggest temperatures a bit below normal for
late June. High pressure right overhead tonight, with light winds
and cool temperatures. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some fog, so
added patchy for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Pleasant day Friday as high pressure moves away and return flow
begins. Attention is focused squarely on Saturday as a potent
short wave moves along the international border, reaching the
Winnipeg area by Sunday morning. Southerly flow ahead of the
system will bring heat and humidity back into the region during
the day, but then a strong cold front will sweep through Saturday
night. Shear and instability should be sufficient to help organize
strong convection as the front moves through during the evening
and overnight hours. Expecting a line of storms to develop across
MN during the afternoon, moving into southeast MN by late
afternoon, into IA/WI during the evening. Skies should clear out
behind the front, with a breezy and cooler day on Sunday. High
pressure builds in again to provide cool and dry weather into the
first part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Despite clearing skies in the wake of last evening`s
thunderstorms, forecast guidance suggests MVFR/possible IFR
ceilings will develop late tonight into Thursday morning at TAF
airfields. Lower visibility in mist/fog is also possible at KRST
as it received over three quarters an inch of rain last evening.
Assuming lower ceilings develop, only a gradual improvement is
expected Thursday with a return to VFR conditions by mid-late
afternoon. Light winds will eventually shift to the north-
northwest through the period.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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