Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 240815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

One more day of uncertainty around the convective potential before
we get a respite for a few days. 08z data showing the cold front
pushing southeast across MN, running from the Twin Cities down to
KFRM. There was some convection along the front, but it was from the
Cities northward. Moisture transport and thermodynamic support
point to the action staying up there, but some of the mesoscale
models were still trying to develop some activity across southeast
MN and northeast IA. However, looking at the latest radar trends and
model runs, this support is waning. With chances dwindling, have
made a change to the forecast with less rain chance this morning.
Once the front goes through by midday, that should be it. Cool high
pressure begins to build in tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

High pressure will remain in control Monday into Tuesday, providing
a needed break from the rain, heat, and humidity. But a zonal flow
regime sets up across the region for the remainder of the week,
bringing periodic short waves of varying strength. The first of
which comes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Another impacts the region
Thursday, with yet another on Friday. There will be some dry periods
in there, but it does appear that having rain chances in the
forecast every day is the best way to go. Temperatures are looking
to be near or below normal through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Pesky stratus issues have once again reared their ugly head the
past few hours at RST with an MVFR ceiling developing. Don`t see
any reason that will go much of anywhere in advance of an
approaching cold front slated to arrive just after sunrise. In
fact, some of that MVFR stratus will likely sneak eastward toward
LSE at times as well. Still watching upstream showers and
thunderstorms across west central Minnesota along the incoming
cold front. For now, not seeing much development farther south,
which will be key to whether or not we see any storms pass near
the TAF sites. Per recent trends, unless that development occurs
the next few hours, showers and maybe a few storms should scrape
by to the north, and will maintain only a vicinity mention at this
point. There could be some lingering lower stratus for a time
right behind the passing cold front through mid morning, but quick
drying midday onward should deliver clearing skies and some
stronger northwest winds in the 12 to 16 knot range.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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