Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KARX 301538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1038 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL HELP TO ERODE
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 12Z GRB/MPX SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
INVERSION IN PLACE HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. PLAN ON SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL
SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2014

LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HUNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST. BUFKIT RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE NEAR 1 KFT CIGS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT TOWARD
18Z.

FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND OF -SHRA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT KRST
BEFORE 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED KRST/KLSE WOULD BE
UNDER MVFR CIGS. WILL TREND THIS WAY. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.