Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 181121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CRITICAL FIRE  WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER TEENS. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 14 TO
18 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  OR TWO OF PUSH INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST  IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE COOL ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND GOOD VFR...TO THE TAF
SITES TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL WIN OUT TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY -SHRA INTO THE TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE/-SHRA CHANCES ARRIVE INTO KRST AROUND 00Z AND KLSE AROUND
06Z. WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING TONIGHT...OUT
OF THE CANADIAN HIGH AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY -SHRA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
12Z SUN. A TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN KRST TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TODAY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 19 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS OF 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP


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