Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 290450
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...Tonight
Issued at 755 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this evening. A few storms could
produce gusty winds and brief downpours. Look for this activity to
diminish through 10 PM.

UPDATE Issued at 719 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Thunderstorms are on a weakening trend across the forecast area
this evening as temperatures cool and stronger forcing pushes east
into eastern Wisconsin. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled
out over the next hour but the overall severe threat is
diminishing rapidly. The main concerns with any storms the rest of
the evening looks to be gusty winds and perhaps some brief
downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD
with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift
ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to
scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar
trends. So far...storms are behaving...but next couple of hours in
added heating and 0-1KM ML MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500J/KG
range may lead to a few severe storms...especially along/east of the
Mississippi River where better 0-3KM bulk shear in the 20-30KT range
will exist. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threat...
but cannot rule out an isolated weaker tornado or two as well. As a
result...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 9 PM this
evening for most of the forecast area except for Clark and Taylor
counties.

Look for the severe threat to subside later this evening as surface
heating wanes and main forcing shifts east. Otherwise...will likely
continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with
mid-level trough moving overhead.

Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late
morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to
push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for
clearing skies.

Temperature-wise...plan on lows tonight and Sunday night in the
middle 50s/lower 60s and highs Sunday in the middle/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Memorial Day through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic
lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.

Shower/thunderstorms become likely mainly in the Tuesday/Tuesday
night period as the area of low pressure and cold front push into
the area from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region.

Looks like a bit of a cool down for latter next week into the
weekend with general troughing across the region. There will also be
a few showers chances as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites
tonight in low stratus and BR. Low pressure moves across the TAF
sites tonight, and combined with a moist airmass, will produce
some stratus and BR at times. KLSE will mainly see the MVFR
conditions while KRST is expected to see IFR. Mixing increases
Sunday morning and conditions will improve to VFR. Look for west
winds to increase into the 12 to 14 kt range during the day on
Sunday with gusts to 22 kts possible. Also, a broken stratocumulus
deck is expected on Sunday with cloud bases in the 3500 to 4000 ft
range. Clouds will scattered out Sunday evening and west winds
subside as weak high pressure edges in.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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