Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 141747
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1247 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and blustery conditions will continue through the
end of the week. Another low pressure system will bring the
chance for mainly light snow Friday and Friday night, with some
heavier lake effect snow possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 pm, forecast largely remains on track. A look at area
radars, surface obs, and web cams reveals any light lake effect
snow activity is south and west of our area, so have cut down on PoPs
in the Mohawk Valley early this afternoon. Have them trending up
slightly late this afternoon into the overnight hours as low-
level winds back toward westerly, but still expect any activity
to be minor. Winds have gusted into the 30-40 mph range in the
Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and adjacent areas, so have
bumped up wind gusts a bit in these locales.

Previous discussion...Winds will become more northwesterly in
the wake of the clipper system and increase this afternoon, as
cold and dry air advection ensues. Winds are expected to gust to
25 to 35 mph with clouds decreasing throughout the day. A west-
northwesterly low-level flow does favor a lake effect response,
although there is a lot of ambient dry air in place and
inversion heights are quite low, so do not have PoPs extending
east of the western Mohawk Valley. Some light snow showers with
dusting of snow are possible there, with dry conditions for most
of the area. High temps will range from the teens to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect chances continue through Friday night. Moisture and
inversion depths increase a bit overnight tonight, so could see
some light accumulations over the Mohawk Valley. Another chilly
night with lows in the single digits and teens.

Friday and Friday night, additional midlevel energy will slide
across the forecast area downstream of a closed upper low. Some
weak isentropic lift ahead of this wave may result in some light
snow showers during the day for the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks. Another chilly day with highs in the teens and 20s.
Friday night, a front will cross the region and allow for lake
effect activity to begin over favored areas of the
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, with a few snow showers possibly
spreading into the Schoharie Valley/Capital District/western New
England.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rather low confidence forecast as fast moving Pacific jet will be
coming ashore and attempts to tap into the sub-tropical jet/moisture
through the long term.

Due to the fast nature of the upper pattern, overall low confidence
in specifics as global model trends suggest a strong baroclinic zone
will set up across the Great Lakes and into the I80 corridor as high
pressure from central Canada attempts to extend its influences
across the northeast through the weekend.  Seems the moisture will
initially be along this baroclinic zone and Lake Ontario influences
to keep chance PoPs for Saturday then dry out for Sunday as the
aforementioned high dries out the column further.

Sunday night into Monday, a piece of the subtropical jet becomes
entrained within the approaching short wave trough for the next
chance for light overrunning precipitation.  Initially precipitation
would fall as light snow before warmer air arrives for a mixture of
rain/snow for several portions of the region.

Another Pacific PV anomaly is forecast to quickly move across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Monday night into
Tuesday which will assist with developing another trough axis across
the northeast corridor.  This will keep the chance PoPs/Wx in the
forecast with the best chance downwind of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will average near normal with near normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 18Z Friday. Just few-sct lake enhanced clouds will
pass through this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mid level
clouds will start to increase Friday ahead of a clipper system
approaching from the Great Lakes. No precipitation is forecast.

Winds will be west-northwest around 10-15 kt with gusts around
25 kt at KALB/KPSF. Wind speeds will decrease to 5 kt or less
overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend.

Temperatures will largely remain below freezing through the end
of the week and into the weekend, promoting ice formation on
areas lakes and streams. Periodic chances for light snow will
occur as well.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson/JPV/JVM
SHORT TERM...Thompson/JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM



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