Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 282143
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THESE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RESPONSE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP TODAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NOAM WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL...CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS. A SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN TX CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
OUT AS IT MOVES WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THERE
REMAINS AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MORE CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS NOW WELL EAST OF THE CWFA AS A STEADY COLD ADVECTION WAS
UNDERWAY. PER THE HRRR/RAP13...H850 TEMPS WERE ALREADY INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL DROP BACK EVEN FURTHER TO AOA -10C
TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. PER THE LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS FROM THE RAP13/NAM12/GFS40...AND A REVIEW OF THE LAST
SEVERAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...THOUGHTS ARE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO OCCUR INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. MEANWHILE...LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE IN
THE FORM OF CLOUDS DOES INCREASE WITH MODELS RATHER HIGH IN RH
FIELDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH ALONG WITH RECENT LAMP/LAV TRENDS.

MONDAY...TRENDS ARE FOR ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO
ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE PER THE LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS INCREASES AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AAO
H850...SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVING ACROSS. SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WHERE WE WILL PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN
DACKS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS WE CLOSE OUT 2014...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE HIGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...SUBTLE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO REINFORCE THE
COLDER AIR IN PLACE...BUT INCREASE THE FAVORABLY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
IMPACT OUR REGION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H850
TEMPS DROP BACK TO BETWEEN -15C TO -20C. IN FACT...UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTION TOO WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH
SUGGESTING INLAND EXTENT WILL BE WELL INTO HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES DO DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WILL MAKE IT CHALLENGE AT
THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL FOCUS THE HWO
TO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...A VARIETY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CLEAR SKIES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL /AVG HIGHS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ AND
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SO A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH OF COLD CONDITIONS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TRANSITIONING TO A MILD AND MAINLY
RAINY EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES JUST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND... SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AN EXPECTED QUICK TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.  MIXED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO EASTERN CANADA AND COLDER AIR
RETURNS.

HIGHS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S
DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE TO HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM
AROUND 30 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 40S.  LOWS FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO LOWS FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
FAIRLY LOW VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KPSF...WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH VFR THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY A MID DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SKIES ON MON WILL BE MAINLY
P6SM SCT040 AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SW-NW AT 7-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 7-9 KTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. AFTER THE
RAINFALL THE PAST DAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. ICE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





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