Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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898
FXUS61 KALY 190242
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
942 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Damp and foggy night. High pressure will build into the region
late tonight after a weak disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere moves across the region. Expecting fair weather
Thursday through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be above
normal for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak short wave trough moving across eastern Canada will pass
over New England late tonight/early Thursday morning. With the
approach of this short wave trough combined with very moist low
levels we will have some drizzle, freezing drizzle, light rain
and snow especially this evening. Used top-down method for
precipitation types. Despite getting just freezing rain for the
central and southeastern Catskills and in the northern and
central Taconics the NYS Mesonet web cams indicate that some
snow has occurred in these areas. Guidance indicates low level
moisture remains trapped below an inversion so low clouds should
persist through the overnight. Also it will be foggy overnight
have vsibilities around a mile in many locations. Due to cloud
cover temperatures won`t fall much; expecting lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s so untreated surfaces will continue to be icy
and slippery with black ice possible. Winds will be calm to
light. Have issued a special weather statement addressing the
fog and potential for black ice for the entire forecast area for
the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will build across
the region for Thursday into Friday. This will allow for dry
weather with above normal temps. Some moisture will still be
trapped beneath an inversion, so will continue to expect plenty
of clouds, especially across northern and high terrain areas.
Max temps Thursday and Friday will be above normal with highs
in the mid 30s to mid 40s and lows on Thursday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s.

As the ridge starts to shift eastward, a disturbance will be
approaching from the southwest for Friday night. This system
looks to weaken as it runs into the ridge and will be shearing
out. However, it now looks like the southern portion of the
area might get some measurable precipitation Friday night but
elsewhere it will be very spotty. Cloud cover will range from
mostly cloudy over northern areas to overcast across the south.
Lows will generally be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Ridging builds back into the region Saturday morning as the
flow turns towards the south. This will usher in well above
normal temperatures and additional moisture. Highs on Saturday
afternoon look to reach the upper 30s in the higher terrain to
the upper 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather to start the long term period will quickly give way to
increasing chances for precipitation late in the weekend into early
next week.

For Saturday night into Sunday...High Pressure anchored up across
eastern Canada and the northeast United States will provide fair
weather with some increasing clouds during Sunday. Lows Saturday
night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with highs on Sunday in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

From Sunday night through Wednesday...Expect unsettled weather as
Low pressure tracks northeast from the Tennessee Valley Monday
morning to the middle Atlantic coast Tuesday morning and then off the
southern New England coast Wednesday morning. While it is still far
out in time, this storm has at least the potential to bring wintry
precipitation to the higher elevations while there is more
uncertainty as to precipitation type in the valleys where for as
time it may be too warm for snow. Expect lows Sunday night to be in
the mid 20s to mid 30s with highs on Monday in the mid 30s to mid
40s. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the upper 20s to near
40 with highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Lows Tuesday
night will be in the 30s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to
lower 50s. In addition to the uncertainty in temps and precip type,
there is uncertainty in precip amount as PLUME diagrams show a great
range in QPF amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak short wave trough moving across eastern Canada will pass
over New England late tonight/early Thursday morning. With the
approach of this short wave trough combined with very moist low
levels we will have some drizzle, freezing drizzle, light rain
and snow especially this evening. Guidance indicates low level
moisture remains trapped below an inversion so clouds should
persist through much of the TAF period with ceilings rising
Thursday. Will have have an issue with foggy conditions tonight
with an improvement a boundary layer pick up Thursday morning.

Overall expecting IFR/LIFR conditions improving to MVFR
Thursday morning. Winds will be calm to light/variable with
light southwest to northwest flow developing Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some spotty drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible this
evening and tonight as a weak upper level disturbance passes
through the area.

Temperatures will average above normal for the remainder of
the week. Some snow melt over the Adirondacks and southern
Vermont may contribute to some additional runoff, but any rises
on rivers and streams will only be very minor and overnight lows
should fall below freezing most of the time. A weak disturbance
will pass through the area Friday evening, bringing less than a
tenth of an inch of QPF to the area south of the Capital
District. Elsewhere, little, if any, precipitation is expected
for Thursday into the weekend.

The next major low pressure system will impact the area Sunday
evening through Tuesday night, bringing a mix of rain and snow
to the region. Total QPF with this system ranges from about a
half of an inch to about two inches. This may cause some issues
on rivers/streams, especially when combined with snow melt.
However, latest GEFS/NAEFS members only show a couple of
locations reaching action stage with this system. Stay tuned for
further updates as models come into better consensus over the
next several days.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis/JVM
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11/JVM
SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM
LONG TERM...11/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/JVM



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