Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 260131
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
931 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight with the
passage of a cold front overnight. Slightly less humid air will
move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures
will continue to be rather warm with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
00Z soundings still show a rather unstable atmosphere, however,
per the H2O vapor, lots of dry air was advecting into Upstate NY.
Isolated convection along the lake breeze boundary developed on
the shoreline of Lake Ontario and was approaching
Oswego/Fulton/Syracuse. As the cold front remains further
upstream, this upstream convection may linger for another couple
hours as we will place slight chance PoPs for the Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley. Nocturnal stabilization will continue
overnight as the remainder of the overnight should remain dry. As
low level moisture remains high at this time and winds relax
further, patchy fog may form as this too was added to the
forecast/grids. Otherwise, per the latest HRRR/RAP, frontal
passage should occur between 06z-10z.

This will further enhance the clearing and some low level drying
that will spread across the region overnight. Lows in the
60s...with around 60 in northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunny and dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
breezy winds at times Tuesday and lighter winds Wednesday.
Boundary layer temperatures do not cool much but the humidity will
be considerably less. A weak reinforcing cold front will approach
from Canada late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a little bit
or warming of the boundary layer through the day Wednesday.

So, highs Tuesday in the 80s to lower 90s. Highs Wednesday a
couple of degrees warmer. On Thursday, the weak cold front is
expected to cross our region with scattered thunderstorms and
mixed clouds and sun. Highs Thursday in the 80s to around
90...some upper 70s southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still a rather low confidence forecast at this time as upstream
attempts to ridge amplification (4-corner into the southern portions
of the Pacific Northwest) while as upper level polar lows transverse
east-northeast across central and eastern Canada. Inbetween these
will be a fairly fast quasi-zonal flow across the northern CONUS as
some sub-tropical moisture advects northeast toward our region
through the end of this week.

The ECMWF remains the most amplified with a nearly cut-off upper low
evolving over the central Great Lakes through the end of this
weekend and the start of the weekend.  Meanwhile, the GFS/GGEM are
more progressive and flat/zonal flow through the period.  Per
ensemble trends, we will favor toward slight amplification with a
surface wave developing over the Tennessee Valley Thursday night and
tracking along a quasi-stationary frontal zone through Friday with a
good chance for a period of wet weather.  We will place graduated
PoPs with the highest values south of I90 at this time.  Then
heading into the weekend we will favor toward lesser amplification
with a decrease in PoPs under partly cloudy conditions.

Temperatures through the period should average near normal through
the period with low confidence precipitation forecasts to remain
near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms near KPOU continue to weaken and
slide east of the region.  We remain within a humid air mass as main
cold front was well upstream of the region.  This will make for
challenging aviation forecasts tonight.  As skies clear from west to
east, low level westerly winds remain up just a bit.  However, where
rain has occurred will likely result in MVFR/IFR conditions.  Even
where rain did not occur, dewpoint depressions will narrow where
some MVFR could develop.  For now, the highest confidence for IFR
conditions are at KPOU where we will place a TEMPO group overnight.
All other locations, we will monitor trends and adjust accordingly.

Latest model trends suggest some the stratus across southern Canada
may bring a period of scattered VFR ceilings north of KPOU Tuesday
morning along a secondary frontal boundary drifting southward. Winds
should become more west-northwest with an increase in momentum
through the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday
afternoon...

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this
evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With the passage of a cold front
tonight, slightly less humid air will move into the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures will continue to be
rather warm with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Rh values tonight and Tuesday night are expected to be 75 to 100
percent. Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will be 40 to 55
percent and on Wednesday 35 to 45 percent.

Light west winds below 15 mph tonight will become west to
northwest Tuesday at around 15 mph with gusts possible over 20
mph. Winds diminish to light Tuesday night and increase to around
15 mph Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area
into this evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes
region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. Ponding of water on roadways along with some minor
urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area is possible.

High pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area
through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late
in the week through the weekend.

Flows continue to be well below normal for late July at many
locations in the Hydro Service Area, especially our western New
England area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecasted river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

www.weather.gov/albany



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