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000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV