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000
FXUS61 KALY 111723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM...A DRY AND MILD DAY
IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. MUCH
COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST.  IN FACT...12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WHICH COULD BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND
NEAR FROZEN GROUND.  WE WILL RAISE TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES AND HAVE
PTSUNNY SKIES.  NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY THANKS TO A SMALL BUBBLE
OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THE MILD DAY
TODAY AND WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPS WON/T FALL TOO QUICKLY
TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...SOME PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY AROUND DAYBREAK. INITIALLY...THIS PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW...AS WET BULBING ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW /850 HPA V COMPONENT
WINDS OF ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS/...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY WARMING TO OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS
OUTSIDE THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. THIS IS A BIG
CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM EARLIER RUNS WHICH SUGGESTED A COLDER AND
SNOWIER SOLUTION.

THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS PA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND TOWARDS THE COAST OF
WEDNESDAY EVENING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH MIXING OCCURS BEFORE COLDER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION CHANGES PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW. MODELS NOW
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF NYC...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IF
THE LOW WERE TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
WILL OCCUR QUICKER ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT.

THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...IT WILL BE AFTER 8 PM BEFORE RAIN GOES
BACK TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS THE LOW STARTS TO WRAP UP TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. ONCE
PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW...IT SHOULD COME HARD FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...BEFORE TAPERING DOWN LATE.

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
ENDING. BY THE TIME THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY ENDED...THERE WILL
BE AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TO SOUTH...WITH AROUND
A FOOT IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AROUND
6 INCHES IN THE SARATOGA REGION...AND JUST 2-4 INCHES IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE HELDERBERGS...AND ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH
OR TWO FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THESE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRACK
COULD ALLOW FOR MORE/LESS SNOWFALL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. IT/S A
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE REAL
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. DUE TO THE LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW/ICE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...A PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
DROPPED...BUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEED TO BE
ISSUED...AND THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

ALSO...WITHIN THE AREAS THAT SEE MIXED PRECIP...ACCRETION OF UP
TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS THAT CAN TRAP LOW LEVEL COLD AIR...SUCH AS
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SRN VERMONT...AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE STORM DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OR HOLD
STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TRACKING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLACKEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND BRISK WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENCY WITH
THE RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT IT
WILL BE VERY COLD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
WEAKENING WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WELL ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE ARE STILL TIMING...POSITION AND STRENGTHEN DIFFERENCES. THERE
IS CONSENSUS THE FEATURE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD WARM TO
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH 50 DEGREES
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...THE SO RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

THERE ARE SIGNS A STORM MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL TAF
SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS WE GO THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. GOING PAST 06Z
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GO FROM VFR TO MVFR AS VCSH
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES OUT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOING INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT KALB AND KPSF WITH -SN AT KGFL AND -RA
AT KPOU DUE TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
AT IFR FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
WILL DROP AS A PROGRESSING COLD FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SKY COVERAGE.

A WIND SHIFT AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WIND FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH MUCH STRONGER MAGNITUDE WINDS
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE
RA...SN...FZRA...SLEET.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT...ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW
INTO THURSDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MIXED
RAIN...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
SEE MAINLY RAIN FROM THE EVENT. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...MOST OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABSORBED INTO
THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

HOWEVER...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND NW
CT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE...LOW LYING...AND URBAN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE EXISTING SNOW AND ICE BLOCKS
DRAINAGE...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING LONG ENOUGH FOR ICE BREAKUP ALONG MOST LARGER RIVERS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED ICE JAM ON A SMALLER STREAM OR CREEK
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THIS COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE
FREEZING ON SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING...ANY SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SLOW AND NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-047-048-051-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-043-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS