Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 311339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE VERY SOON...THEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DESCRIBES
THE IMPORTANT FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND IS BELOW...

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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