Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 291720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF SHORE INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PUMPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH THIS BREEZE...STAY
AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S MOST OTHER
REGION. SOME CLOUDS COULD INCREASES...POSSIBLY SOME STRATUS UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS MID LEVEL ONES.

SATURDAY...WILL BE LAST DAY OF THIS LATEST WARM SPELL. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE...THIS ONE WILL LINE
UP WITH THE MEAN WIND FLOW ALOFT...SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AND
EVEN SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION.

INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES LOOKING
TO REACH AT LEAST AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
SUGGESTION OF A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
WITH THE FRONT CLOSING IN...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. PWATS ALSO ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.75
INCHES...WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN ALTHOUGH
RIGHT NOW THEY LOOK SCATTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FORECASTED TO AROUND 5.5 J/KG...SO
NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER GIVEN INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN
FORM INTO MULTI-CELLULAR LINES WHICH COULD MEAN SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION IN
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR
NOW...THERE WAS NOT QUITE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE ENHANCE WORDING IN THE
GRIDS JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE ACTUALLY FRONT BEGINS TO SLICE THROUGH
OUR AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP
UP...AND THE AREA WILL COULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET
ENTRANCE REGION. IF THESE ELEMENTS WERE TO COME TOGETHER
PERFECTLY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY SOAKING RAINFALL
WHICH WOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY. IT IS STILL NOT A CERTAINTY THIS WILL
HAPPEN BUT A POSSIBILITY. EITHER WAY...IT IS A GOOD BET (LIKELY)
SOME RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER BY SUNDAY FROM ALBANY NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIVES H850 TEMPERATURES TO A
LITTLE LESS THAN 5C...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE 50S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
ITSELF...HIGHER NORTH AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WORKING THROUGH
THESE AREAS WHICH COULD REACH 70 OR BETTER BEFORE THE WIND TURNS TO
THE NORTH LATER ON SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG MODELS HAVE THE FRONT CLEARING THE MOHAWK
VALLEY NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. THE
00Z ECMWF IMPLIES A LITTLE RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS WILL RANGE NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS...40S OTHER AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY...50-55
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH POPS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS BASED ON THE SCENARIO FORECAST BY NCEP GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS
FORECAST IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS WHICH
INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL NOT DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT
HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH SHOWS THE UPPER TROF DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE MUCH
EARLIER...AND KEEPS ALL OR PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WET
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD. FOR NOW HAVE
DISREGARDED THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND FORECAST FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE
HIGH WILL INITIALLY BRING COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION...BUT AS IT
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AND THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TOA ROUND
50. THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z SATURDAY. LATER TONIGHT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AT KPOU/KPSF...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AND A VFR STRATUS DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND STRATUS DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS KALB...10 KT OR
LESS...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...RH VALUES GENERALLY
DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75-90 PERCENT. THERE MIGHT BE A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WARN AND HUMID WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IF CONVERGENCE FROM A STRONG FRONT CAN LINE UP WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE WIND ALOFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. IF WE CAN RECEIVE A WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL (A
PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY) RIVERS AND ESPECIALLY STREAMS MIGHT
ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE SOME RISES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



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