


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
842 FXUS61 KALY 151023 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 623 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be mainly dry and warmer, although it will be a touch less humid than the past few days. Humidity returns Wednesday and Thursday, however, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold frontal passage Friday may be accompanied by some additional showers or thunderstorms, but much cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of the front as we head into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: - Hot, humid conditions are expected for the middle of the week. Heat advisories will likely be needed for many valley areas Wednesday and Thursday. Discussion: As of 2:30 AM EDT...Convection from last evening that was associated with an upper disturbance has moved off to the east of our region, and we are mainly dry now. Behind this convection, we have seen a lot of breaks in the mid and high clouds, although there is fairly widespread low stratus and some patchy fog across the region early this morning. Temperatures are in the 60s to around 70. A slow-moving frontal boundary is located near the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley now, and we should see both temperatures and dew points continue to drop behind this boundary through the remainder of the night. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. Today, ridging aloft amplifies and surface high pressure builds in from the west. It will be quite warm under the building upper ridge with highs in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s. However, it will be less humid than the last few days. BUFKIT soundings show very dry mid-level air that will likely mix down this afternoon, especially from the Capital District northwards. We therefore collaborated with several neighboring WFOs to drop NBM dew points this afternoon. While dew points will probably remain a little more elevated in the Mid Hudson Valley closer to the frontal boundary, most areas are still expected to fall just short of heat advisory criteria (95F for >2hrs). Today should be mainly dry, except perhaps for a stray shower near the I-84 corridor this afternoon near the front. It may also be hazy today, with some Canadian wildfire smoke over our region, especially in northern and western zones where the NYS DEC has issued an air quality alert today. The surface high remains overhead tonight, so temperatures should radiatively cool to the respective dew points. Lows will likely be in the 60s for most of the region, with some upper 50s possible in the ADKs. Patchy fog is expected again tonight, especially in the river valleys and for areas that saw appreciable rain over the past couple days. Wednesday...The surface high shifts off to our east, setting up S/SW return flow and warm, moist advection as a warm front lifts northwards. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday, with low to possibly mid 90s for many valley areas. However, increases in humidity will be more noticeable, as dew points climb back into the low 70s for valley areas. Heat advisories will likely be needed for most valley areas. Most of the day Wednesday will be dry with ridging aloft and a capping inversion in place, although a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon or evening across the Mid Hudson Valley, Catskills, or Mohawk Valley. Wednesday night...There is good agreement that an approaching upper shortwave and modest low-level convergence at the nose of a strengthening southwesterly LLJ will provide forcing for ascent and cooling aloft that should allow for more numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Mid-level lapse rates steepen Wednesday night, with showalter indices as low as -4. Given that this will be overnight, the severe threat looks relatively low with most of the convection remaining elevated. That being said, we can`t totally rule out a couple instances of gusty winds or hail with any taller updrafts. PWATs also remain quite high at around or even over 2", so locally heavy rainfall may be possible again, although storm motions should be faster than they were the last couple days. There are several questions surrounding the Thursday forecast. Another, weaker upper impulse looks to track across the region Thursday afternoon as a surface low tracks through southern Quebec. Guidance shows a pre-frontal trough moving across our region in the afternoon as well. If there is less convection around Wednesday night and/or this convection ends early Thursday morning, then we may have more showers and thunderstorms to deal with during the afternoon. However, if there is more remnant convection and cloud cover around Thursday AM, this could limit the convective threat during the afternoon. The airmass will be quite warm and muggy with quite a bit of instability, so if any storms do develop Thursday afternoon then we will have to monitor for a few to become strong to severe. However, this is very much a conditional threat, and confidence is fairly low at this juncture. AM convection (or lack thereof) will also impact how warm we get on Thursday. Nevertheless, with low to possibly mid-70s dew points and temperatures at least in the upper 80s, there is a good chance that heat advisories will be needed once again for many valley areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection likely diminishes Thursday night with the loss of daytime heating. It will remain quite warm and muggy with lows in the 60s and 70s. Friday, the surface low tracks into southeastern Canada, with the trailing cold front dropping south through our area. Guidance has sped up the progression of this front compared to previous forecasts. An earlier frontal passage would limit the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms. Low-level forcing also doesn`t look overly impressive with the pre-frontal trough coming through on Thursday, which may also limit convective coverage. Best chance for showers and storms is towards the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England where there may be more time for daytime heating and instability to build ahead of the approaching front. We will still have to monitor for some stronger storms as the shear looks better on Friday, but this threat is once again a conditional threat, and we may very well end up with little to no convection if the front continues to trend faster. Saturday through Monday...Saturday looks quite nice. High pressure building in from the W/NW will bring dry weather, cooler temperatures, and much lower humidity. Saturday night will likely feature lows in the 50s to 60s. Sunday starts dry, although we may have to watch for additional showers or storms Sunday and Monday as guidance shows several upper impulses tracking through broad zonal flow aloft over our area. Temperatures currently look to remain fairly seasonable for Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday, areas of IFR/LIFR Cigs/Vsbys should gradually become VFR by 13Z-15Z/Tue, with VFR conditions then prevailing through at least 02Z/Wed. Patchy fog may produce intermittent IFR Vsbys toward 06Z/Wed at KGFL/KPSF, with more frequent intervals of IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs after 08Z/Wed, which may also develop at KALB and KPOU. Light/variable winds will become west to southwest at 4-8 KT by this afternoon, then will become light/variable around/after sunset. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-038-042-083. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...KL