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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192328
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TRY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND DRY NATURE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
OCCURRENCE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TIED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WHEN PEAK HEATING MAY OVERCOME CAP...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE
COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT I DECIDED AGAINST RAISING POPS PAST
SLIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SHIFTING THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 AND H85 TEMPS 30C OR WARMER WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...STRONG CAP...AND STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA I KEPT
FORECAST DRY. DEPENDING ON DAYTIME MIXING/WINDS WE COULD APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE INVERSION. IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP
BUT LIKELY STILL WORTHY OF INCLUSION AT BOTH GLD AND MCK. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH.
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE
WILL BE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF WHEN IT IS INDICATED IN THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BRB