Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 231 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
widely this morning from the mid 20s up to the lower 30s w/ mainly
clear skies and light winds.

Going into more nice above normal day for temps is set
for the area with the remnants of the upper ridge slowly breaking
down ahead of a storm system for the latter half of the weekend. Low
pressure at the surface will aid in bringing in some WAA into the
region allowing for daytime highs to reach mainly into the 50s...w/
some lower 60s possible over SW zones.

For tonight and on thru Sunday night...this timeframe will be the
main wx concern for the area. A storm system working east from the
west coast will enter the central Rockies later tonight...close off
and work eastward into the central Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Models fairly close to consistency on its track w/ latest runs. Cold
air working into the region tonight onward will bring about wintry
precip. Low level moisture working into the region tonight will
overspread the region going into Sunday. This will allow some light
freezing rain to start over the area...transitioning to snowfall as
Sunday progresses. Expected low track will allow for heaviest snow
totals along and north of Interstate 70 at this time.

Also of concern will be the strong northerly winds that will
accompany the expected snowfall from midday Sunday onward. Latest
guidance suggest sustained 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. These
strong winds will create near blizzard-like conditions thru Sunday

With these expected conditions for the region...have upgraded the
entire CWA to a Winter Storm Warning from 06z Sunday thru 12z
Monday. Snowfall totals will range from 3-7" along and south of
Interstate 70...with 5-8" (and locally higher amounts near 10+
inches)north of the Interstate. This snowfall combined with expected
winds and light glaze of ice will have a big impact for the region.

Please stay tuned for further updates as any slight change in the
track of the storm will have a big impact on area conditions.

Region clears fairly quickly going into Monday/Monday night with
high pressure returning to the area.

For temps...highs Sunday in the lower to mid 30s will give way to 35-
45F on Monday. Overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

A weak shortwave trough will move across in the fast zonal flow on
Tuesday, but it will be moisture starved and no precipitation is
expected. Ridging will follow for Wednesday and Thursday with dry
conditions and warming temperatures. Snow cover may initially
temper the warming, but expect considerable melting during this
time as temperatures try to reach the 50s by Thursday. Next trough
will approach for Friday and Friday night bringing a chance for
light snow. It looks weaker, and faster moving, than the current
system, but the GFS shows the potential for an inch or two, while
the ECMWF is notably dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 415 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 03z Sunday...then MVFR with
ceilings BKN010-015. Wintry precipitation will approach the
terminal after 07z and will be VCSH until intensity increases.
Winds light/variable thru 15z...then NNE 5-15kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru 03z Sunday...then MVFR/IFR mix with
ceilings lower from OVC010 to OVC005. Wintry precipitation will
approach the terminal after 07z and will be VCSH until intensity
increases. Winds light/variable thru 18z...then NNE around 10kts.


KS...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
     to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-

CO...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Monday
     for COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
     to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.



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