Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 300806
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016
Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016
Strong, deep lift will continue over the center part of the area
near the majority of the storm activity. This lift will diminish
during the early evening. The storm activity will then shift to
the west and northwest ahead of an approaching upper level short
wave trough. Expect the lift to increase during the evening,
mainly over the northwest and north central part of the area into
the overnight hours before weakening as the short wave trough
begins to fill. The nose of the LLJ will also be over the
northwest part of the area during this time period, further adding
to the lift. The storm activity will diminish/move east of the
area during the overnight hours.
Due to the increasing stability of the environment, am expecting
the severe weather threat to come to a close over the next hour or
so if not before. However due to slow storm motions around 15 MPH,
flash flooding will continue to be a threat during the evening and
into the overnight hours.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in
southeastern part of the area. A weak shortwave trough rotating
around the souther plains ridge has provided enough lift in the
moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment for large hail
in the strongest cores. The shear is forecast to increase a bit
this afternoon so storms will likely persist into the evening
hours as they gradually lift north with the upper forcing.
Monday will present a similar set up as today. Another shortwave
trough will rotate in during the afternoon from the southwest.
Instability however will be higher...with most of the forecast
area moderately to strongly unstable. Deep layer shear will be
similar with perhaps a slight increase as well compared to today.
As a result...think there will be another round of scattered
storms capable of producing large hail.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016
For the extended period, the GFS and European are showing dry, warm
conditions. A ridge is influencing the CWA for the entire period,
yet the ridge never fully engulfs the region. There is a fairly
pronounced trough in the eastern CONUS that is preventing the ridge
from moving east once it reaches the high plains. There is also a
closed low over Texas that also helps with inhibiting the
eastward movement of the ridge. Even with the lack of ridge movement
the CWA will remain dry and warm through Sunday; temperatures in the
80s each day.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main challenge will be the
wind direction overnight due to thunderstorm outflow creating a
mess of the wind field. Did a best guess of the wind direction
given the anticipated storm movement, but have little confidence
with the wind field forecast. The winds should return to the south
by 12z due to the storms being over with by that time. Another
round of storms is expected, with storm activity increasing during
the late afternoon and early evening.