Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN WHICH IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...OTHER THAN BECOMING MORE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ALSO MOVES VERY LITTLE AND UNDERGOES PERIODIC AMPLIFICATION AND
DEAMPLIFICATION AS SHORT WAVES ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
EACH EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH STORMS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STORMS SHOULD
MAKE IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE
MAIN UPPER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL WEAKEN LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CLIMBING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATE WITH AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY AID IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY CONFINED TO MID AND/OR UPPER
LEVELS...INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE TAIL END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME FAIR WEATHER CU/TCU DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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