Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







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