Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





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