Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 190905
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
405 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper shortwave trough will move east across New Mexico and West
Texas today. Combination of lift with the approaching trough and
increase in lower to mid-level moisture should be sufficient to
support a possibility of isolated showers by late this afternoon for
the area west of a Sterling City to Ozona line. This lead shortwave
will shift northeast of our area tonight, while a second impulse
approaches our far western counties toward morning. With steepening
mid-level lapse rates and development of a low-level jet, widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and carrying 20
PoPs for tonight. Our area will have increased cloud cover mainly
later today and tonight. Temperatures will be above normal for the
middle of October, especially with the lows tonight. Highs today are
expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows tonight in
the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Upper trough axis passing across West Central Texas during the day
should produce at least a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the day, with the ECMWF and the high-res TTU WRF showing
the most activity. Have boosted POPs slightly across the
northeastern Big Country northeast of Abilene where rain chances
appear to be the highest.

Otherwise, main weather story will be the thunderstorm chances
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Potent upper level trough
will supply plenty of support, while approaching cold front lifts
an increasingly unstable air mass. Latest SPC for day 3 shows a
slight risk of severe storms across the northeast Big Country
Saturday evening, where lift and instability are maximized. As
the front moves south across the remainder of the area during the
overnight hours, severe threat may diminish as the instability
diminishes, but strong storms should persist through the overnight
hours along and just behind the front. Best rain chances will be
across the Big Country and Heartland, with lesser chances across
the western Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. Have boosted rain
chances east based on the latest model trends.

Activity may linger across the Northwest Hill Country after
sunrise Sunday morning, but most areas should see improving
conditions through the day. Dry conditions persist through next
week. Warmest day for the area will be Saturday ahead of the
front, where mid to perhaps even upper 80s will be possible.
Cooler behind the front next week. Morning lows will drop into the
40s, with the coldest night likely Monday morning with the surface
high building in across the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  63  80  65 /   0  20  30  10
San Angelo  80  63  80  64 /   0  20  20  10
Junction  79  63  80  65 /   0  20  20  20
Brownwood  80  62  79  65 /   0  20  40  10
Sweetwater  79  63  79  64 /   0  20  20  10
Ozona       78  63  77  63 /   5  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

19/07



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