Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 272327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
527 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR through tomorrow evening at all sites. Light and variable
winds tonight will become south/southwest by 18Z tomorrow. May see
a few gusts near 20 knots at ABI and SJT tomorrow afternoon. Only
a few high clouds expected through the time period. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(tonight and Wednesday)

Quiet weather conditions are forecast across West Central Texas
through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will range from the mid
40s across much of the Big Country, to the upper 30s/lower 40s
across much of the rest of the area. The coldest readings are
expected in low lying river valleys, where winds are forecast to
be lightest.

An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains late
Wednesday, sending a cold front south through the Plains. Ahead of
this front, compressional heating along with southwest winds of 10
to 15 mph, will result in unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs
across the region will mainly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The daily record high temperature for Wednesday is 82 at Abilene
and 85 at San Angelo.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Everything still appears on track for a good rain event for West
Central Texas for Friday Night into Sunday.

Cold front slides through West Central Texas on Thursday,
dropping the temperatures from near 80 on Wednesday afternoon into
the 60s on Thursday. Meanwhile, to the west an upper level storm
system begins to approach. This system will shear apart for the
weekend with the trough axis itself moving across Sunday afternoon
and leaving a remnant upper low over northern Mexico. Best lift
from this system occurs Friday Night into Sunday morning, with
models suggesting fairly widespread 3/4 into to 1 1/4 totals
through the weekend. Post frontal conditions combined the rain
will make for cool conditions, but no real chance of wintry
precipitation this time around. Highs around 50 with lows near 40
look reasonable.

GFS tries to hold onto the upper low across Mexico for a few
days, and then bring it out across Texas for Tuesday Night and
Wednesday with another shot of good rainfall. The ECMWF basically
just weakens the entire system away and remains dry for next week.
At this point, will split the difference to some extent and keep
some smaller chance of rain in the forecast for the middle of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  79  47  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  42  82  46  66  40 /   0   0   0   5  10
Junction  38  80  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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