Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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862
FXUS64 KSJT 071120
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A wind shift at each terminal will accompany the passage
of a weak cold front moving south through West Central Texas this
afternoon. Mostly southwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 knots ahead
of the cold front will veer to the north after frontal passage
gusting to 15 to 20 knots. Wind speeds will abate at all terminals
around midnight.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A northwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area as upper
level ridging continues to build over the western CONUS. A weak cold
front will move into the northern Big Country early this afternoon
and should be entering the Interstate 10 corridor by early evening.
The degree of pre-frontal warming today will depend on the speed of
the cold front with mid 60s expected for afternoon highs in the Big
Country and upper 60s to around 70 degrees expected this afternoon
south of Interstate 20. Morning lows tomorrow will be around the 30
degree mark for the entire forecast area.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

..Elevated fire weather conditions will persist this week...

The dry weather pattern will continue this week. Monday will be a
cooler day (compared to the rest of the week), with afternoon highs
in the 50s and overnight lows generally near 30 degrees Tuesday
morning. A warming trend will commence Tuesday afternoon and
continue into next weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
and a similar response with overnight lows. Add into the mix a few
breezy days, low minimum relative humidity (RH) values during the
afternoon, well-cured grounds, and you have favorable conditions for
wildfires to possibly develop. This is especially true considering
the region hasn`t seen 1/10th of an inch of rainfall since December
27th, 2015, when most locations seen at least one inch of rainfall.
Simply put folks, over the next several days, if you have any fire-
related activities please keep a watchful eye for any embers which
could quickly start a wildfire. Otherwise, dry conditions will
prevail with the only hint of any precipitation in the numerical
data being around Monday (February 15th) of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through much of
next week. With no rain in site and dry northwest flow, afternoon
humidity values will drop to near or below 20 percent for most
locations through Thursday. Wind speeds will not likely approach
critical values, but 20 foot winds in the 10 to 15 mph range will
be possible again on Sunday afternoon, and again on Monday and
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  31  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  30  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  69  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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