Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 070448 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast concerns revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday night with
associated ceiling/visibility reductions, and with extent of low
cloud development early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have entered the Big Country, and some increase in
coverage is expected overnight. Carrying VCSH/VCTS at KABI. Some
low cloud development is expected across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area toward morning, but could be
limited by extent of high cloud coverage from convection well to
the northwest. Carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF sites
early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic, but appears that the best
chance of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT
and KSOA. Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a
possibility. Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into
the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI
Tuesday evening. Have introduced a wind shift at that location
after 00Z. The latest model data indicates potential for increased
convective development farther south at KSJT and possibly KBBD on
Tuesday night. Covering the possibility with VCTS groups at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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