Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231113 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly this
afternoon through early tonight, across much of the area west of
a line from Hamlin to San Angelo to Junction. Carrying VCTS at KSJT
and KSOA, between 21Z and 00Z. Broken high cloud coverage is expected
for much of today and tonight. A cumulus field with bases 5-6 kft is
expected by early afternoon. Winds will be from the east to
southeast at 10 KT or less.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak cold frontal boundary which entered our area yesterday has all
but washed out, and drier low-level air has filtered into our
northeast and east-central counties (eastern Big Country and
Heartland areas). Remnant moisture axis along what was once the
frontal boundary will shift west into our western counties today,
with a north-northwest to south-southeast orientation. This moisture
axis will coincide with a weak instability axis, and several of the
models suggest isolated to scattered development of showers and
thunderstorms along this axis today. The main focus is this
afternoon and evening, to the west of a Sweetwater to Junction line.
Carrying slight chance PoPs across this area. With some cloud cover
and slightly lower 850mb temperatures, highs today are expected to
be a few degrees lower than what occurred yesterday.

The GFS has a weak disturbance aloft drifting toward our western
counties this evening and early tonight. With the moisture axis
remaining, continuing with slight chance PoP early tonight for the
area west of a Hamlin to San Angelo to Sonora line. Expect skies to
be partly cloudy over the eastern part of our area and mostly cloudy
over the west tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid
60s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Fairly quiet pattern for West Central Texas in the longer term.
Passage of an upper level trough axis through the plains will make
for some chance of convection across the western Concho Valley and
Big Country on Wednesday afternoon. Lift is weak, with the brunt
of the system passing well to the north. Models are not showing
much in the way of shower and storm development, but cant rule it
out either. Will trim the pops we already had in place just
slightly but still leave a mention.

Dry forecast for the remainder of the period. Upper level ridge
will dominate the Southwest US into the northern Plains for the
rest of the week, but will leave a weakness across the Texas.
However, no real lift provided by this nearly stationary weakness
and no surface features to key on either. Thus a dry forecast
seems the best option at this point. As for temperatures, previous
forecast was in pretty good shape and didn`t have to change much.
Still appears temperatures pretty close to seasonal normals.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  63  84  61  84 /   5  10  10  10  10
San Angelo  86  64  84  60  83 /  20  20  10  10  10
Junction  85  62  84  59  82 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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