Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shKITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP ift
over NY and PA on Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will
climb to around 23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s,
with a few 90 degree readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP front will move
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with latest models
indicating boundary will be more progressive. Wednesday now looks
mainly dry except for chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western
Catskills. Next chance for convection will be over the weekend as
the upper level trof deepens and cold fronts approach the
northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
few to scattered in coverage will occur this afternoon. Fog is
not expected again tonight due to dry airmass and lack of
rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur. Winds will
remain light under 10 knots through 18z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday pm...VFR.

Sunday nightto Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...DJN


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