Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 282316
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
716 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY,
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND LOW PRES MOVES
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF SUNNY
SKIES AND SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S WITH THE VALLEY AREAS OF NE PA AROUND 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC OCCLUSION WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHC POPS EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK AND LIKELY OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN MORE QPF. SUNDAY
NIGHT ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS BUT MONDAY MORNING THE
ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING WITH MODERATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH ACCUMS
AROUND ONE INCH IN THE FAR NRN CWA. AFTER THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WINDY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING. ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS AROUND ONE
INCH MAY OCCUR FROM DAYBREAK TO MIDDAY BEFORE SFC CONDITIONS
BECOME TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BRIEF SFC RIDGING ENDS THE ACTIVITY. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN CWA SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FAST MOVING SFC LOW
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL MI TO WESTERN PA BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A
MAINLY DRY MORNING WILL INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS WITH TEENS LIKELY ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIGHT BUT COOL AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
THE 40S SOUTH.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST RELAXES AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WSW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS TIME AS THE GFS DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT THE AREA
ON THE COLD, SNOWIER SIDE OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS COLD FRONT HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IS ALSO
MUCH STRONGER WITH THE NEXT LOW...TAKING IT TO OUR WEST WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND CONTINUING MILDER TEMPS. IN ANY EVENT
PATTERN OVER THE EAST LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH VFR ALL THE WAY THROUGH 00Z
MON. NAM MODEL IS ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE AN MVFR DECK UNDER
INVERSION OVERNIGHT FOR SOME TERMINALS...YET ALSO DEPICTS CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NONE. GENERALLY DURING THE
WINTER...NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES CAN RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT CIG AND THE NAM WILL BE THE BEST AT CATCHING IT. IN
THIS CASE THOUGH...PRIOR MIXING DURING THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD BE TOO MUCH FOR LIMITED LAKE MOISTURE TO
OVERCOME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS VERY THIN STREAMER TAGS OF CLOUDS
DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE FINGER LAKES /KITH MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS/.
THINKING BALANCE OF ALL NON-NAM GUIDANCE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE WAY TO GO...THOUGH SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ABOVE 15KFT AGL WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN LATE. LIGHT
NW WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT SW TO S WIND
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW AS
WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH.

WED...VFR.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP






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