Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBGM 251936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.