Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231835
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level disturbances, combined with lake moisture, will
trigger some scattered sprinkles in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk
valley tonight and Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure building
into the region will provide mainly dry but cool weather through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update...
A broad trof will reside over the Northeastern U.S. through
Friday with cool low level flow blowing from the northwest.
Models indicate weak waves will rotate around the upper trof at
times this evening and tomorrow. This weak forcing and lake
differential instability may bring a few light showers, or
sprinkles to the Finger Lakes and Upper Mohawk valley.

850 MB thermal trof over the region will mean unseasonably cool
temperatures in the lower-mid 50s with the upper 60s and lower
70s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...
Surface high pressure continues to flex its muscles heading into
the weekend as the upper trof weakens slightly. Low level flow
rermains from the NW across the warm waters of Lake Ontario,
but weakens. Still some weak PVA rotating around, but atmosphere
below 700 mb really dries out. At this time, the 12Z ECMWF is
the only model left with any kind of QPF on Friday, so the
consensus blend will be to reduce PoPs and keep things quiet
with no mention of sprinkles/showers across the northern areas
through Saturday.

Mainly clear skies and the chilly/dry airmass will mean
overnight lows colder than normal. Many areas will reach the
mid-upper 40s both Thursday night and Friday night. Highs also
sub-seasonal...although gradually warming from around 70 Friday
to the lower 70s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in for a rather uncharacteristic mainly
rain free extended period of time for these parts. Mainly dry
weather and unseasonably cool conditions should prevail through
the weekend and into early next week within a pattern such as
what is being shown. Several of the medium range models are
trying to float some tropical systems into the Gulf States and
offshore of the SE Atlantic early next week. Although these
appear to be a non-issue for us at this time, the model trends
do bear close monitoring for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected this TAF period with
SCT/BKN strato-cumulus today around 5K feet diminishing this
evening. Overnight, valley fog is likely over the twin tiers
with KELM dropping into the IFR category after 09Z.

Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots increasing during the mid morning
hours to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Light westerly
winds tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR except for valley fog at
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC


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