Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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708
FXUS61 KBGM 241111
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
711 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Building Canadian high pressure will produce cool Fall-like
conditions through the weekend. At least a patchy frost is
possible early Sunday morning and perhaps again for some spots
Monday morning. After slightly milder temperatures Monday, our
next system will bring a round of showers through the region late
Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
355 AM Update...
Main concern is for the first frost of the season this coming
night. Frost advisory has now been hoisted for Tug Hill/Mohawk
Valley to Upper Susquehanna/Western Catskills portions of Central
NY from 2 AM to 8 AM Sunday morning, where confidence is greatest
for areas of frost due to temperatures falling into the mid to
upper 30s. It should be noted though that other locations outside
of the current advisory area could also receive at least a patchy
frost; particularly the Twin Tiers to Southern Finger Lakes areas.
Additional zones may be added to the Advisory if necessary in
coming forecast updates.

As for now - Cold air advection is underway, with northeasterly
to northerly low level flow. In Central NY, temperatures are
already in the 40s and drier air is scattering out clouds. From
Twin Tiers- Catskills southward, post-frontal clouds remain, and
temperatures are in the 50s to lower 60s. That being said, these
clouds will also tend to scatter out in coming hours as the large
cool dry high pressure - currently centered over Ontario north of
Lake Superior - continues to overspread the region.

Dewpoints will dive into the upper 30s-near 40 by this afternoon.
There will be plenty of sunshine yet also mixing due to continued
cold air advection aloft and thus north-northwest gusts into the
15-20 mph range. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.

Then for tonight, clear sky and light wind along with the dry and
chilly Canadian air mass should set the stage for radiational
cooling which will result in the coolest temperatures in months.
With the high pressure centered roughly along the Ontario-Quebec
border, there will still be a bit of a pressure gradient, yet
protected valleys should have no problem decoupling the wind.
Shallow valley fog may occur. For the Frost Advisory counties
mentioned above, widespread mid to upper 30s are figured for lows
based on the consistency of several model runs. Outside the frost
advisory, upper 30s-lower 40s will be more common and thus frost
occurrence will be much more patchy. That being said, those with
sensitive plants in the Twin Tiers up to the Watkins Glen-Ithaca-
Cortland- Tully areas may still want to take precautions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cool high pressure will be situated just north of the area to
begin the period. Following a frosty start for many areas Sunday
morning temperatures will rebound to the upper 50s to mid 60s
range under sunny skies as high pressure crests over the area.
Temperatures will be coolest over the higher elevations of the
Catskills and warmest in the valleys over the western southern
tier into NE PA.

For Sunday night, the ridge begins to nudge just east of the area
with some high clouds beginning to increase over the west as the
next system approaches. As a result, lows should be slightly
warmer over the western southern tier into the Finger Lakes while
most areas through the east across the Catskills into the Poconos
should be at least as cold Sunday night as compared to Saturday
night. Generally expect lows in the mid to upper 30s over these
areas in the east so mention patchy frost in grids.

For Monday, a frontal system and associated upper level trough
begin to approach from the Great Lakes with the general trend
being for increasing cloudiness. Some differences still exist
between forecast models regarding how fast showers move in with
the general trend being for a slightly earlier arrival. Still
think most of the day should be dry however by the late afternoon
into the early evening we introduce the chance of showers over the
west  basically for areas west of Broome County. However, the
bulk of the precip should move through after 0z as rain/showers
associated with the frontal system move across west to east. In
fact area should be right near the triple point as it moves
across.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update...
Loaded in the latest Superblend but no major changes to the long
range. Unsettled conditions early in the period trend drier and
warmer by late next week.

Previous discussion...
The extended forecast continues to be challenging. However,
guidance has agreed upon the next storm system will impact the
region Monday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance for
rain appears to be Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. There are
slight differences on the timing of the cold front, the ECMWF
slightly faster with the GFS trailing behind. The uppr lvl low
that forced this front across the area will remain over southern
Canada through Wed night. Thus, embedded waves may round the base
of the trough and generate showers over the region. High pressure
will build back over the region on Thurs which will generate quiet
weather for the weekend.

Temps during the period will range in the upper 60s to low 70s during
the day and fall into the uppr 40s to low 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Post-frontal clouds will still produce brief CIG restrictions
12Z- 15Z KAVP-KBGM. Otherwise however, very dry air from building
Canadian high pressure will work its way in today with clouds
becoming few and VFR conditions. Light north-northeast winds early
this morning will become north to northwest around 10 knots during
the day with some gusts well into the teens, before going very
light and/or variable this evening. Winds should decouple in the
valleys overnight allowing for patchy fog formation including
eventual IFR VIS restrictions for KELM by 09Z-12Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...VFR except possible early morning valley fog ELM
which could be IFR or worse.

Late Monday-Early Tuesday...A period of restrictions likely as a
frontal system moves through with showers.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday...Generally VFR but brief restrictions
possible in scattered showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ009-036-037-
     045-046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...KAH/PCF
AVIATION...MDP



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