Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161447
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES END MIDDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM OHIO. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER AND CLOUDS TO REFLECT THIS.
AROUND NOON THIS WILL ALL DIE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
ERIE MOVES IN WITH DRIER AIR AND SINKING MOTION. TEMPS ON TRACK
AND FORECASTED MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD. AS THE HIGH COMES IN THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.

345 AM WED UPDATE... MULTI-BAND SHSN/FLRYS PERSIST ATTM...WITHIN A
CYCLONIC 310-320 FLOW...AND CONTINUED CAA. THIS LGT SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED BUILD IN FROM THE W LATER THIS MRNG...COURTESY OF AN
APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS...AND ALSO BLDG HGTS ALOFT BEHIND A
DEPARTING S/WV. ANY RESIDUAL FLRYS SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-16Z.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

TEMPS...THOUGH...WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID-APRIL...WITH HIGHS
NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S. SOME OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

AT LEAST THE WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TDY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM W TO E...SPCLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... MOST OF THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TNT (LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS)...THEN
SUNNY MORE SEASONABLE CONDS ARE FORESEEN THU (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 40S-MID 50S).

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ALG THE EAST COAST THU
NGT AND EARLY FRI...A DVLPG SE FLOW AT LWR LVLS COULD BRING A
MARINE CLOUD LYR INTO AT LEAST PTNS OF NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS. OTHWS...PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL...LIKELY THICKENING UP FROM W TO E BY MID-LATE AFTN. LOW-
LVL WAA BY THIS TIME SHOULD HELP PUSH READINGS UP NEAR 60 FRI AFTN
ALG OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE APPROACH OF A NRN STREAM S/WV AND
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT LATER FRI NGT. AS A RESULT...WE`LL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHC OF SHWRS. THERE MAY BE ENUF WET BULB COOLING
WITH THE INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AMS...FOR A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX IN SOME
AREAS. PCPN AMTS...HOWEVER...LOOK QUITE LGT FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE TAFS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LINGERING WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BGM AND ITH. IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH SO DID
NOT INCLUDE. EVERYONE VFR BY 17Z. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS THIS
AFTN.


12Z UPDATE...
VFR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM. AT KRME AND KSYR NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP. BY 16Z THIS
MORNING EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE SKC AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ONLY CHANGE GROUPS WILL BE FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH
NW WINDS GUSTY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOWARD 00Z EXPECT WINDS TO BCM LGT/VRB AND THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN/TAC
FIRE WEATHER...






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