Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011947
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF A CUT OFF LOW
PARKED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SHOWER THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH EVENING BASED ON HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG LOOK LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN BOTH DAYS, HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BENEFICIAL
SOAKING RANI TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 10,000 FEET. I AGREE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WITH LEAVING THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL BE PUSHING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0 AND +2 C LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC POPS IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
THIS LAKE EFFECT WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN LIKELY TO BE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 18Z... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPIN WESTWARD AROUND AN
UPPER LOW ALONG THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WE ARE
EXPERIENCING MAINLY BKN CIGS FROM 3 TO 5 KFT. THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING THAT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING IS TRICKY AS DIURNAL TRENDS
WOULD SUPPORT CLEARING... BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ROTATING
ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. HAVE
GONE WITH BKN CLOUDS THROUGH 00-04Z THEN CLEARING BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER CLEARING IF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH EAST.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH
IFR IN THE SOUTHERN NY / NORTHERN PA RIVER VALLEY AREAS INCLUDING
AT ELM. SCT-BKN VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG/LWR CIGS...ESPECIALLY KELM/KITH/KBGM.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE/PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE






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