Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 021815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC
HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE
NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS FORECAST, WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING BACK OVER NY AND PA. AS OFTEN
OCCURS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ITH AND BGM,
WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z
ON TUESDAY.

TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP


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