Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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575
FXUS61 KBGM 240549
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system will produce scattered showers and isolated
thunder roughly along and east of the Catskills to Poconos
through Tuesday, with dry conditions elsewhere. A warmer, more
summerlike weather pattern will set up for midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...
All that is left of the earlier convective activity, which itself
was widely scattered mainly east of I-81, is a couple tiny showers
in Delaware County NY, down through Wayne-Lackawanna-Eastern
Luzerne Counties PA. Loss of diurnal heating will continue to let
this stuff fall apart. Overnight, I delayed the reintroduction of
rain chances in our eastern zones by several hours. Most of it waits
for the day on Tuesday. Also added patchy fog mention in Wyoming
Valley area early Tuesday morning due to moisture rainfall there
each of the last couple afternoons. There is already only a 4
degree Temp-Dewpoint spread at KAVP. Further northwest, fog is
more doubtful because of drier air and higher boundary layer
winds.

Previous discussion...
As of mid afternoon, an axis of instability currently exists over
NE PA extending into central NY and as a result some showers have
developed on radar over NE PA with a CU field extending across
much of central NY. Broadening out on the synoptic scale, upper
level low still parked over the mid Atlantic coast with the
forecast area in a deep NE flow. Expect scattered showers and
storms to continue this afternoon over NE PA with the chance of
showers extending as far N/W as Broome to Otsego Counties where
any showers should be more isolated in nature.

For tonight, showers and any storms initially diminish this
evening. However as the upper level low to the south pushes NE
additional showers associated with this feature will develop and
move up the coast later this evening into the overnight. South and
east portions of the CWA will be near the back edge of these
showers with some differences in the models regarding how far west
these showers extend. The GEM/ECMWF keep showers to our east while
GFS/NAM bring showers farther west into the CWA. Utilized a model
blend which brings chance POPs back mainly into Pike/Sullivan
Counties overnight. Farther north and west expect mainly dry
conditions overnight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. A
stronger wind field just off the surface should limit fog
potential so this has not been included in forecast. Lows will be
mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level low continues to push NE through Tuesday moving
into southern New England. This will continue to put eastern
portions of the CWA under the chance of some scattered showers.
However we did shave back the western edge of these chance POPs
and so keep the I-81 corridor and points west dry for Tuesday
where skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Highs will generally
range from the low 70s east where there will be more cloud cover to
the upper 70s west. Also, the best instability looks to be east of
the area but we did include the slight chance of thunderstorms for
eastern Pike and Sullivan Counties.

Large scale upper level ridging will build into NY/PA Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a surface cold front drops into Ontario.
Temperatures will push to around 80 degrees in most locations
Wednesday afternoon with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms in advance of the front, mainly over central NY.

For Wednesday night, any showers diminish in the evening with the
overnight being mainly dry and milder with lows in the 50s. For
Thursday, a warm front will push across the region from the SW and
this combined with daytime instability will bring more widespread
showers and storms to the area, especially by the afternoon. Highs
will be once again in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points
rising into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of
fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly
to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep
chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance
on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit
as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the
chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky
thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any
day in the pd.

Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the
80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the
srn U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the end of the TAF period. High clouds backing in from
the east and a stiff breeze off the surface will prevent fog
formation early this morning. High clouds will be thickest at KAVP
through late morning, with just a few clouds elsewhere.

Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then
increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible
each day with brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...Heden



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