Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 430 AM LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S.

SFC LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRACK ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEAKEN AS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE VCNTY BY LATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE
OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION RESIDES ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC FEATURES
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY, DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. BY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
CWA WITH HIGH CHC REST OF CENTRAL NY AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FAR SE.

MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM
NYS TO NOVA SCOTIA WITH SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. T85 NEVER DROPS ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTION FORM LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON,
CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DECREASES ALONG WITH A
LOWERING INVERSION THEREFORE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MAXES
ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT SKIES WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PARTY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE..
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO STILL KEEP THE
COASTAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE MONDAY BY KEEPING
OUR AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT SOME MOISTURE MOVING
UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM ONE, WITH THE INITIAL TRACK TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH COLD AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WE MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW VERY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH
THIS ONE PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS.

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WITH IT, THE HIGHER
THREAT FOR IFR CIGS. AT KBGM SOME IFR STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH 13Z IN LIGHT FOG, BUT NOT THE 1/4 SM FOG WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY. BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS TODAY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 21Z. FOR NOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SNOW, I KEPT VSBYS IN MVFR. IF SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR VSBSY ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NY TERMINALS.

WINDS TODAY VEERING INTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING, AND
WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS, BUT INCREASING
TO 10-15 BY LATE MORNING. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THUR TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






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