Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the
area Tuesday bringing rain, and cooler conditions for much of
the rest of the week.


Upper level ridge axis will move east of NY and PA by this
afternoon and evening as a complex storm system moves east into
the midwest and upper plains. The low-level pressure gradient
increases and hence the low-level southerly flow increases. The
low-levels will remain dry today into most of tonight. There
was patchy cirrus that will override the upper level ridge axis
during the day and overnight. Otherwise, another unseasonably
mild day for late October with highs into the 70s.

For tonight south winds increases above the surface layer and
are projected to advect a low-level marine layer north which
should reach the Poconos/Catskills between 09z and 12z Mon. The
GOES-16 nighhttime microphysics channel difference imagery does
show low clouds east of NC over the open ocean and low- level
trajectories bring this moisture north reaching our counties
late tonight. With upsloping, this moisture will saturate into a
stratus layer. Our confidence in this is fairly high and the
RGEM, NAM, GFS and Euro all agree on this scenario too. So we
have increased cloud cover in our grids in these areas between
09z- 12z Monday and added patchy to areas of fog also.

1 pm update...

Monday remains dry and warm as the upper level ridge and surface
high move east through New England. Some models bringing
afternoon sprinkles in with increasingly moist south to
southeast flow well ahead of the main batch. Have kept it dry
due to the deep very dry air.

Digging upper level trough drops into the Midwest Monday to
Tuesday. This will push a strong cold front through Tuesday with
showers. Rain amounts fell with a faster movement of the front.
A surface wave along the north south front is slower and
enhances rainfall to the east. Amounts now around an inch which
we will have no trouble handling.

Front moves into the west early Tuesday morning and exits in the
east in the evening. Instability will be tough to get with so
many clouds. Wind fields and shear again strong.


230 pm update...

A lull with a few showers and light rainfall amounts late
Tuesday night into Wednesday before the upper level trough makes
it here with cooler air and lake enhanced showers. The deep
trough lifts slowly northeast Wednesday night and Thursday.

High pressure builds in from the south Thursday night and
remains into Friday night.

Questions for next weekend on when the next strong cold front
and deep upper level trough gets here.

Temperatures above normal except for Thursday which will be
close to normal.


VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as our NY
and PA terminals see scattered to occasionally broken cirrus
clouds between 20 and 30 thousand feet. There will be no
visbility restrictions through 06z Monday.

Winds will be light southerly overnight and increase to around
10 knots or so by this afternoon and continue this evening.


Late Sunday night through Monday...IFR-MVFR cigs possible early
Monday due to low cigs/vsbys from marine layer heading north
affecting mainly KAVP and possibly KELM and KBGM/KITH.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers.




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