Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BRINGING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE WYOMING
VALLEY AND POCONOS STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND NOW A BAND OF STEADY SNOW IN
THE FAR SOUTH IS BEING PUSHED SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY ALSO
DROPPING SE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. CAA THIS MORNING WILL ADD
SOME LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE. CAA ENDS MIDDAY WHILE AN UL TROF MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CWA. SATURATED MOISTURE ALL BELOW 5K FT BUT
DENDITE ZONE BETWEEN SURFACE AND 5K FT TOO. SOME WEAK LIFT TODAY
AND EVENING THEN LES QUICKLY DIES AS HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN NY WILL BE
MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALREADY RETREATING SOUTH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTH.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SKIES WILL
CLEAR...WINDS WILL DROP AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SINGLE
DIGITS. IN THE NE QUARTER OF CWA APPARENT TEMPERATURES GET TO
AROUND -15 WHICH IS THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
BORDERLINE EVENT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WARM A TAD OVER TODAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT DROPS SE INTO NE NY. LIGHT SNOW MAY
BRUSH ONEIDA COUNTY LATE.

SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE A COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE CWA WITH
LIGHT SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. SNOW AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS
THAN AN INCH WITH 1 TO 3 IN THE FAR NORTH. GFS SLOWER THAN EURO
WITH FRONT AS A WEAK LOW COMES THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
225 AM EST UPDATE...
LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND
MODEL TRENDS. OVERALL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGED. AT THIS POINT...THE
ANTICIPATED HIGHS TRENDING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MAJORITY
OF THE AREA /WITH LOWS MAINLY 20S/ LOOKS RATHER HELPFUL IN A
SENSE...TO HELP SLOWLY BLEED DOWN SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT OF
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN
AVERAGE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT
SAID, THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
WEAK, FAST MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
THOUGH WE EXPECTED KAVP TO DEGRADE TO IFR BECAUSE OF OUTER RIM OF
SNOW FROM MIDATLANTIC SYSTEM...WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE I ALSO
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT NOW DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY EN ROUTE TO POINTS
SOUTH. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES OF MINUS-10
TO MINUS-20 CELSIUS WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...FRIENDLY FOR SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 MILE
VIS SNOW WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND INDEED THIS IS BEING OBSERVED
UPSTREAM...SO I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN ASSOCIATED TEMPO
GROUPS /SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFICS/. AFTER 12Z...COLD YET DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. NW FLOW ROUGHLY
8-12 KTS AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CLOUD
DECK COURTESY OF SOME LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION IN
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERALL SO
FLURRIES SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTIVE. THE CAVEAT HERE IS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH KITH DUE TO NW-NNW FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE WHICH COULD
YIELD A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT TIMES TODAY...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE RESTRICTIONS IN TAF BEYOND A HIGHER END
MVFR CIG AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KSYR-KRME
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR MORE ORGANIZED FLURRIES...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OVERALL. CIGS WILL TEND TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO ESPECIALLY EVENING AS THE DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
KSYR- KRME IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP/PCF
AVIATION...MDP





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