Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1150 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
WARMER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS ARE AGAIN OFF THE EASTER END OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SOME SNOW IS ACROSS SYR AND RME BEING HELPED BY THE ERIE BAND. S
CENT NY HAS SOME UPSLOPE FLURRIES. THE LL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE WSW KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY FROM NRN STEUBEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH SOME
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TWIN TIERS. REST OF CWA DRY
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

FOLLOWED TEMP GUIDANCE AND WENT AROUND 30. TEMPS NOW WARMING
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FRONT AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

HAVE UPGRADED NORTHER ONEIDA COUNTY TO A LALE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING...AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. A SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THESE TWO ZONES STARTING LATE THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT BY
NOON ON FRIDAY. HAVE FORECAST 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA AND 3 TO 6 OVER SOUTHERN ONEIDA. FURTHER SOUTH..WITH THE
LES SNOW BAND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SYR AND LOCATIONS TO THE SE
OF THERE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS WELL.

OTHER PROBLEM MAY BE WESTERN STEUBEN WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OFF OF THE LAKE ERIE BAND TONIGHT. AGAIN A TOUGH CALL. THE
BAND WILL HAVE NO SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT.

MOST OF NE PA WILL BE DRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SEND
THE LAKE EFFECT NORTH OF THE REGION FRI NGT.

SATURDAY UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED SAT
NGT. 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE 0C SO PRECIP WILL BE A MIX. LOW LEVELS
NEAR FREEZING. BEST CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN
THE EAST AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS USUAL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AND MOSTLY RAIN SO DID NOT INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL OF FZRA IN THE HWO YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...00Z CYCLE HAS COME IN WARMER SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING LESS OF A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ONLY UNTIL 9
AM IN THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS. THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE JUST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. SFC LOW WILL
LIFT WELL TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND FRONT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP BULK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF
REGION.

2 PM UPDATE...
BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S.

WHILE THE TROF THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH CHILLY AIR WILL BE LIFTING
OUT FRIDAY, REALIZED BENEFITS TO THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP BY
SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5,000 DURING THIS TIME WILL
RISE FROM AROUND 0C SATURDAY EVENING, TO +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ICING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT EURO SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81. BASED ON WPC
OVERNIGHT MINS SUNDAY MORNING, INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN
MOST AREAS FOR NOW.

ON SUNDAY ANY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN
BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AS MAIN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NY. A GOOD SHOT AT ALL RAIN COMES OUR WAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 TEMPS BY MONDAY SURGE TO +10C.
BY THIS POINT THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD PLACE OUR AREA INTO A
DRY SLOT WHICH WILL HELP END PRECIPITATION AND PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR 60.

WE TURN GRADUALLY COOLER BY TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN, BUT IN REALITY
WE SHOULD JUST COOL DOWN AND TURN COOLER. ANY LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR AREA, WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. AT KRME/SYR BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. IN GENERAL CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE AROUND 4K FT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES PRIMARILY AT KRME/KSYR.
AFTER 06Z LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START VEERING AND BRING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO KRME/KSYR.

WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AN INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AT 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET TO 10-12
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.

SAT...VFR.

SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

LATER SUN/MON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ037.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...GJM/TAC
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM





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