Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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895
FXUS61 KBGM 220754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING VARIABLE
SKIES THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. COOL WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
COOL WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY... PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID- AFTERNOON. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO STILL NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL NY AND IN THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST OF NE PA.

FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING AND ALSO AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX.
SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT. THUS, A GOOD BUT NOT PERFECT SET UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH WILL STILL CENTERED A BIT TO THE
WEST OVER WESTERN PA. NEVERTHELESS, AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -3C AND DO EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELAXING OVERNIGHT. THUS, STILL EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE WITH A FEW ISOLATED UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE UPGRADED AREA IN
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND ALSO ADDED ONONDAGA AND CAYUGA
COUNTIES TO WARNING. REMAINING ZONES NOW UNDER FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM EDT UPDATE...
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF...THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

OUR REGION SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DRY SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER WHAT WILL BE A FROSTY START FOR MANY...FULL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO REALIZE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...OR ROUGHLY
5 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER
AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...YET A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH
OUR REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO ACHIEVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE NOT AS
COLD AS DAWN SATURDAY...SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS MAY
STILL GET PATCHY FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET GOING SUNDAY...INCLUDING ASSOCIATED
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY LOW TO MID
70S...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE
CHANGE OVERALL TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND WILL LAST THRU THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS SHOWERS
MAY HOLD OFF TILL MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AS GUIDANCE HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM IN THE
EXTENDED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. AND MINIMUM
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6Z UPDATE...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE EXITS OVERNIGHT, BASES WILL RISE
FROM BKN/OVC 6000-10000FT TO SCT 10000FT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING,
GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK
DRIER WITH THE FRONT, SO AM FORECASTING A SCATTERED CU OR STRATOCU
DECK TOMORROW AROUND 4000 FEET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BKN/OVC OR A
SPRINKLE WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.


.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ009-017-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ015-016.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...PCF



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