Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 141142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT RECORD COLD AIR TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. IT WILL BECOME MILDER FOR
WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY...BUT A STORM APPROACHING WILL BRING SNOW
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMAZING CAA THIS MRNG HAS MUCH OF THE AREA BITTERLY COLD...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EATERN FCST AREA. WE/VE HIT -15F SO FAR HERE
AT BGM...ONLY 5 DEGREES FROM THE ALL TIME RECORD COLD. THIS IS
HAPPENING UNDER CDY SKIES AND SNOW SHWRS CONTG. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SUCH A COLD START...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH BLENDED GUID KEEPING SOME SPOTS IN
THE NORTH BLO ZERO ALL DAY.

VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS LIMITING THE LE THIS MRNG...BUT WITH
THE INCREDIBLE DELTA T OFF THE LAKE...SOME LGTR SNOW SHWRS ARE
LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...ESP IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD NGT TNGT AS TEMPS QUICKLY TUMBLE AFT DARK.
HWVR...TEMPS SHD START TO RCVR BY MIDN AS A SWLY FLOW AND WAA
DVLPS AHD OF THE DVLPG SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX SYSTEM APRCHG FOR MON
NGT AND TUES. 00Z SOLNS TRENDED A BIT COLDER...AS THEY DID LAST
NGT WITH CONTG TO BE THE MILDEST FOR THE FCST AREA...BRINGING AT
LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN TO NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA. 00Z NAM AND
THE LTR 06Z RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH A TGT THERMAL RIBBON OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. 00Z GFS IS SIMILART TO THE EURO WHILE THE
CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE NAM. ATTM BEST BET WLD BE A START AS SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...FLWD BY A PD OF MIXED OR PLAIN RAIN IN
THE EAST...THEN ENDING WITH ANOTHER PD OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR MVES
IN.

FOR THE FCST FLWD WPC GUID FOR SNOWFALL AMTS...AND USED TEMPS
FROM THE SUPERBLEND AS NON DIURNAL TRENDS XPCTD. SNOWFALL AMTS IN
THE 12 HR PD GNRLY BLOW WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA...AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE NO NEED FOR 4TH AND 5HT PD FLAGS ATTM. DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...FRONTOGENETIC FRCG OF VARYING INTENSITY
PSBL IN THE WRN AND CNTRL ZONES THAT COULD INCRS SNOWFALL AMTS
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 PM SAT UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE TO VARYING DEGREES NOW AGREEING ON SOME SORT OF
CLIPPER SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. SNOW
CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE 40-50 PCT RANGE AND WILL
PROBABLY GO UP FURTHER ONCE TIMING CAN BE IRONED OUT BETTER. IT
MIGHT PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. AFTER THAT...ARCTIC AIR WILL
PAY A BRIEF VISIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT AS
COLD AS THE BLAST THIS WEEKEND BUT STILL ROUGHLY 6-12 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY-EARLY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE NEXT
SURFACE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER
FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 16Z IN LIGHT LAKE SNOWS,
OTHERWISE VFR AND MAINLY SKC FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A STORM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  SEE BELOW.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN


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