Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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845
FXUS61 KBGM 280555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 pm update...
Rain showers tracked eastward across Oneida county earlier this
evening but have since moved east and dissipated. A weak boundary
situated N-S from the Finger Lakes southward into n-central PA has
started to wash out a bit and lift back to the north as a weak
push of moisture from the south begins to move in. Have dropped
all mention of showers and storms from the forecast for the rest
of tonight. Boundary layer has become stable enough to keep all
convective development on hold until later tomorrow morning.
There is still some uncertainty concerning the areal extent of
cloud cover expected tonight and tomorrow morning. The clouds will
have a significant event on temperatures tonight and
tomorrow...along with an impact on eventual convective potential
late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. More cloud
cover longer across the region will inhibit the amt of
instability...while less cloud cover will allow for stronger
destabilization and potentially stronger storms. Rest of the
forecast still on track.

Previous discussion...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In the wake of this first
area, destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into
Lake Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in
the low levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still
located upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly
flow. For the late afternoon into early this evening, first area
of showers will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the
CWA by this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or
storms may form over remaining areas where clearing and
destabilization is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complicated aviation forecast with a MVFR to IFR layer of low
clouds impacting the far southeast terminals this morning, dense
fog possible at KELM through daybreak, then convection by midday
most terminals.

Through daybreak, MVFR cigs at KAVP and MVFR to IFR cigs at KBGM
will continue. Some of these lower cigs may reach KRME but
confidence a bit lower here so I included just a TEMPO group. Fog
likely at KELM but it could be quite variable the next few hours,
bouncing from low end IFR to VFR. With a good shot at remaining
clear here however and fog already forming, below airport mins are
possible after 08Z. A return to VFR all terminals expectec between
12Z and 14Z.

Convection this afternoon occurs around 18Z, roughly along I-81
from near Binghamton and then moves south and east through 22Z.
With this scenario, highest confidence in thunderstorms will be at
KAVP, then KBGM. From KELM to KITH and KRME confidence much lower
as storms will fire near but perhaps just, just east of these
terminals. Here I went with smaller shorter TEMPO groups with the
duration expected to be over a smaller window. Drier weather by
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden



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