Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271752
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will control the weather through Wednesday.
Today will be dry with mostly sunny skies and light westerly
winds. The next chance of rain comes Thursday with the approach of
a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ltl to say about today with very dry in place under sfc hipres.
Sat images are remarkably clr with conv debris clds staying south
of I80 and well north in Canada. Fcstd sndg is not only dry, but
stable so cu dvlpmt will be limited. Full sun htg will bring most
places well into the 80s and close to 90 in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a clr ngt tngt...Wed a near carbon copy of Tue with very
dry air and few clds. Only dfrnc may be a few degrees wrmr and a
bit more humid as ll moisture begins to return...esp late in the
day.

Thu fcst becomes more dfclt as a subtle yet complex situation
dvlps. Cold fnt and shrt wv aprchs from the north while the old
fntl bndry remains in place to the south over VA. Best chance for
aftn conv Thus looks to be over the NY counties clsr the upr wv
and jet support. Fnt looks to stall to the south as a wv dvlps and
lifts to the east. This will spread rain across PA and into the
srn tier of NY. More nrn counties in the CWA terd RME and SYR may
escape much of the rain Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Continued model uncertainty lingers through the weekend with
GFS/Canadian strengthening high pressure over the area, keeping
rain generally to the south...while the ECMWF maintains a more
active trof with deeper moisture and higher chances for rain
across much of CNY/NEPA on Sunday. We`re going to continue to
focus on the best rain chances to be over the southern third of
our forecast area which should be the closest proximity to the
frontal boundary and any waves that do form upon it. Unsettled
conditions should keep temperatures generally near to slightly
cooler than normal, although it could turn out being warmer in
north central NY over the weekend given thinner cloud cover.

Models all do seem to then finally concur that high pressure will
build over the region with a return to fair skies and temperatures
back above normal on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Through
early evening few/sct fair weather cumulus around 4k ft. Overnight
just scattered cirrus with valley fog likely. Light winds and
mainly clear skies overnight will lead to valley fog across the
twin tiers included MVFR occasionally IFR conditions at KELM
between 09Z-13Z. Thursday morning as a weak cold front approaches
the region mid/high level clouds will increase. After 18Z,
scattered to isolated convection is possible across the terminals
with brief restrictions in any convection.

West/northwest winds around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable
this evening then southwest around 5 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday afternoon-Friday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM



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