Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FINGER LAKES AS
THE LAKE ERIE BAND HAS MADE IT INTO PENN YAN AS OF LAST REPORT.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WON`T LAST LONG HOWEVER AS WIND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FETCH OFF ERIE WILL DIMINISH THE PREVIOUS EARLIER
UPDATE IS BELOW.


7 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FULTON, NY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. MARGINALLY COLD AIR NOW WITH TEPS AROUND 0C AROUND 5,000 WILL
COOL BACK TO -3C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH KEEP
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS AN
INVERSION ARUOND 8,000 FEET AND A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY
LEAD TO STEADY RAINS AT TIMES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
NOW IS A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE IT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WITH A 285 FLOW, EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WILL BE
BRUSHED BUT THE BULK WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF ONEIDA
COUNTY (SYLVAN BEACH, CAMDEN, BLOSSVALE, ROME). TOWARD DAYBREAK
THE INVERSION COMES DOWN JUST A TAD AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD 290/300. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPRAY OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORED AREAS HERE WILL INCLUDE FROM NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH INTO THE HILLS NEAR ROUTE 20 DOWN THROUGH
CORTLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
USHERING IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z AT THE NYS TERMINALS WITH LOW
MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AT KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR BY 09Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KAVP,
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12-18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM






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