Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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188 FXUS61 KBGM 081047 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 647 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will roll through the region early this morning, but most of the area will see dry and fair weather prevail by late morning. This will last through the evening for most areas, except near the New York State Thruway corridor, where a weak cold front could set off a few additional thunderstorms. The next disturbance will pass south of the area on Thursday, with showers mainly over southern portions of the area. These showers will spread north Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 350 AM Update... Clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms are pushing into the Finger Lakes currently, and will soon enter NEPA. With weak elevated instability in place, expect just brief heavy downpours and lightning as hazards. This activity will push east of the area by late morning, with drier air aloft pushing in rather quickly. Most of the day will actually be quite nice, warm, and dry. A weak cold front will slide south towards the Thruway corridor this afternoon, as a shortwave trough moves across the northern half of New York. Slightly higher surface dewpoints near the front, and steeper lapse rates closer to the upper level shortwave trough will help yield SBCAPE values of 500-750 J/Kg in a narrow strip along the Lake Plain and into the Mohawk Valley. A few showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in this area as the front approaches late this afternoon. Individual storms will drift ESE as the front pushes slowly south, and will weaken in the evening as they run into drier and more stable air across the Allegheny Plateau. One or two storms could push severe limits as bulk shear appears sufficient, though the weaker instability/ "skinny CAPE" profiles are a limiting factor. Temperatures will once again range from the middle to upper-70s across the area, with lower-80s in the Wyoming Valley. Deeper mixing could tap into some gustier winds aloft this afternoon, with a few gusts pushing 30 mph in the afternoon. Thursday is presenting a rather frustrating challenge for a Day 2 forecast. The NAM now appears to favor keeping most of the area dry, including much of NEPA, until late Thursday night into Friday morning as a series of weak shortwave troughs embedded in enhanced mid-level westerly flow looks to stay further south of the NY/PA line. Took an incremental approach and lowered PoPs for Thursday across northern areas. Though the trend towards a more favorable forecast for the middle of this week (compared to how things looked from a few days back) is noted. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 320 AM Update: An area of low pressure will slide eastward south of our region Thursday night. This will bring a resurgence of rain showers to the area. Then on Friday, a shortwave trough will bring more rain showers to the area. With the cool airmass in place, temperatures on Friday will be well below normal with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The trough moves east of the area Friday night, which will result in a decreasing coverage of showers. However, still cannot rule out a few lingering showers, particularly across Central NY and east of I-81. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 40s. More showery weather is anticipated for Saturday, particularly in the afternoon as yet another trough approaches the area. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Then additional scattered showers with lows in the 40s is expected Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 320 AM Update: The unsettled and cool weather pattern continues at least through Monday with multiple shortwave troughs moving through the area. Specific timing of these shortwaves remains uncertain this far out and therefore timing of showers remains uncertain as well. In between each shortwave, brief dry periods of weather are possible. By Tuesday, ridging may start to build in which may finally bring temperatures closer to normal and perhaps introduce drier weather. However, some model guidance keeps the persistent troughing around with additional showers. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will have pushed east of all TAF sites by 12Z. One additional line of showers over W NY is expected to diminish in intensity as it moves east. Expect sites to trend quickly to VFR. West winds will increase later this morning and afternoon, with gusts around 25 to 28 knots possible. Additional showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as another upper level disturbance rolls across northern NY, and a weak cold front pushes southward into the area. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, mainly after 20Z. Added PROB30s to SYR and RME for thunderstorms between 21Z and 00Z. Lower ceilings will fill in behind the front, with northern sites trending towards MVFR by 03-05Z, and IFR before dawn. MVFR to fuel alt ceilings will spread into the Southern Tier of NY after midnight. Low cigs are expected to stay north of AVP. Outlook... Thursday...Restrictions in low ceilings in the morning, becoming VFR by early afternoon. Restrictions in rain showers possible at AVP late afternoon. Thursday Night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MPH