Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY...AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MRNG. STRATUS DECK
HAS MOVD INTO NE PA AND MUCH OF CNTRL NY. MDL PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS DECK WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT
WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. 925 TEMPS LATER THIS AFTN APRCH +18C ACRS
WRN ZONES...SUPPORTING MAXES IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80. FURTHER
EAST WHERE CLDS LINGER...MAXES WILL BE COOLER...WITH U60S TO L70S
LIKELY. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTN...SPCLY FINGER LAKES RGN
WHERE G25-30 LOOK LIKELY. MILD SSW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH MINS
ONLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE U50S OR L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN ASSCD WITH LEAD S/WV MAY WORK INTO FAR WRN ZONES ON SUNDAY
MRNG...BUT BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE IN THE AFTN/EVNG HRS WITH
APRCH OF MAIN VORT LOBE AND ASSCD CDFNT. MDLS SHOW VARYING AMTS OF
INSTABILTY AND AGREE ON FAIRLY IMPRSV DYNAMICS AND MDT WIND
FIELDS. SPC HAS RGN IN A "SEE TEXT" WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
POINT. MAXES SHUD GET BACK INTO THE M70S ON SUNDAY MOST AREAS.

FNT WILL SWEEP THRU THE RGN BY SUN EVNG WITH SOME "WRAP-
ARND" MSTR...ENHANCED BY LAKE INFLUENCES...OVER THE RGN LATE SUN
NGT INTO MONDAY MRNG. DRIER AIR WORKS IN MON AFTN WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS XPCTD. MAXES FALL BACK INTO THE U50S ACRS CNTRL NY TO
L/M60S NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SFC TROF PASSING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NRN CWA. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE
WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY AS OF 06Z. MOST TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED GETTING INTO SYR AND RME UNTIL AROUND 08Z. THESE CIGS WILL
ALSO BE QUICKER TO RISE TO VFR WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DIP TO IFR AT BGM AND POSSIBLY AVP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z IN -DZ. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.

LGT/VRB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10KTS BY
DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z TO
20-22KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS AT SUNSET BUT REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOIST S/SE FLOW.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN






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