Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIXDOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CONFIRMED BY GOOD
12Z MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS A NICE CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THEN APPEARS TO OPEN UP MORE ZONALLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE DIGGING OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND CLIPPER-LIKE LOW REACHES THE UPPER GTLKS BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT AM LEANING ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THUS...WE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE EVENING TO BLEND WITH HIGHER POPS HEADING
INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPS
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... OCNLLY RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND LAST
EVE`S COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT A PD OF IFR VSBY`S IN FOG IS ALSO FORESEEN AT KELM.

BY 14-15Z...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN...WITH VFR CONDS
THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD (THROUGH 06Z FRI).

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME NWLY 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE TURNING LGT AND VRBL AGN AFTER 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ





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