Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 292344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS
MOISTURE IS ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR RIDGE. A CU MID LVL
DECK IS DEVELOPING AS WELL DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES C... WHICH SHOULD
RESULT TEMPS REACHING THE UPPR 80S TO LOW 90S WITH NO PROBLEM.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPR LVL
TROUGH AS IT ADVECTS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WAA WILL
KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT.

THE MENTIONED UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT/NEAR SUNRISE TIME FRAME. THIS FRONT IS
FAIRLY WEAK AS VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN THE 1000-500MB HEIGHT
THICKNESS WILL OCCUR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY HEIGHT TOMORROW...
NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT... EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT PASSES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND REACH I-81 ROUGHLY
AROUND 18Z TOMORROW... THEN BE EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME. THE SLOWER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE MORE UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE
TO BECOME. SBCAPE AT BEST MAY BE AROUND 1800 J/KG... LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ROUGHLY 6.5 C/KM... MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE NEAR 5 C/KM... AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH... AROUND 2
INCHES. FROM THE STATED PARAMETERS ABOVE... EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY WINDS... BUT HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

BEHIND THE FROPA EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT BY 03Z SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR... AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE OF A SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH STARTING EARLY SAT
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. UNSETTLED
BUT ONLY LOW CHC TO SCHC POPS. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF
WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A DECENT COLD FRONT
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS (6Z) AS
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT OVER ALL TAF SITES. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUDS ACRS ERN LAKES WORKING
E WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH KSYR BY 10Z, KRME AT
11Z...KELM/KITH AT 12Z...KBGM AT 13Z AND KAVP BY 15Z. WE EXPECT
SHRA WITH ISLD TSRA TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRNT AND BAND OF CLOUDS BUT
ITS TIMING BEING IN THE MORNING LOOKS TO KEEP THE CHC/S FOR TSRA
DOWN SO DO NOT HAVE TSRA IN TAFS. LOOKING AT OBS UPSTREAM IT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR -SHRA SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR VFR -SHRA 4000
FOOT CIG AS THIS BAND OF SHRA MOVES ACRS ALL TAF SITES. THE BAND
AFFECTS KSYR/KELM 12Z-15Z, KRME/KITH 13Z-16Z, KBGM 14Z-17Z AND
KAVP 15Z-18Z. MODELS INDICATE SOME SORT OF MARINE LAYER OR JUST AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTS KAVP LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE GUIDC HAS IFR CONDITIONS AT KAVP AND EVEN KBGM/KELM SO THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE SO HAVE SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY 8-12Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT KAVP. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN HOW FAR N AND W THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES IT OR IF IT EVEN SATURATES OUT INTO A LO
CLD SHIELD. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ESP KAVP AND EVEN KBGM/KELM
BY 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE S TO SW OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS AND W-NW 10-12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS HIGHER TERRAIN SITES BY THU PM.

.OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NGT TO MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJN


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