Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Showers and a few storms are possible this evening in northeast PA
along a stationary front. Otherwise isolated, on and off light rain
showers will persist under overcast skies through Sunday morning. A
better chances of showers and storms arrives late Sunday afternoon,
and continues into Monday morning. Rain ends slowly Monday west to
east. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday before the next chance of rain


330 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the potential
for light rain over mainly central NY, and showers and storms over
ne PA tonight...with the possibility of locally heavy rain the main
threat...and then the next round of showers and storms starting up
Sunday afternoon, lasting through the night with the threat of
strong winds and heavy rain within the storms.

Weak east-west oriented stationary front across PA, and a surface
low tracking along the boundary will combine with modest instability
and deep layer moisture, and weak dynamics aloft to produce rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms over ne PA this afternoon and
evening. The bulk of the significant instability should remain well
to the south, but there could be enough deep moisture...PWATs 1.75
to 2"...and sufficient deep allow for well-
developed storms and efficient heavy rainers. Will need to watch
this area closely through the next 8 hrs for flooding potential.

A secondary front to the north and weak mid-level f-gen is
triggering very light rainfall from Lake Ontario into the srn
Adirondacks. This band of rain to the north will likely continue for
the next several hours, and dissipate through the evening as the
forcing and moisture shift to the east.

Conditions will be relatively quiet Sunday morning with mainly
overcast skies and a few lingering light rain showers. The next
round of convection is expected in the afternoon as a deepening
upper trough digs through the Great Lakes and acts to draw nwd
through the mid-Atlantic region another batch of deep moisture along
with a bit more sufficient instability. This available moisture and
instability will work in conjunction with the strong upper forcing
from the s/w and dynamics aloft to produce widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms through the evening and likely into the
overnight hours. The most favorable time for thunderstorms with
heavy rain and strong winds will likely be from the evening into the
overnight hours aligned with the approaching sfc low and/or
trough/warm front. Rainfall rates may approach 1" per hour and
localized flooding issues may be of concern, especially in the
sensitive areas.

Lows tonight will fall into the 60s. Highs on Sunday will climb in
the upper 70s and lower 80s...with temps dropping back into the 60s
Sunday night.


250 PM EDT Update...
Monday could be an interesting day as a well defined shortwave
will propagate across the Great Lakes region early Mon morning
and impact the CWA late Mon afternoon/evening. It`s attendant
sfc low will move into western NY around 12Z Monday and
depending on it`s track, will depend on if we may see strong to
severe storms, or if we may see ordinary showers and
thunderstorms across the region. If the sfc low moves more on a
NE track, this will allow more breaks in the cloud coverage,
thus we will have more of a chance to develop instability across
the region (GFS/ECMWF solution). If the sfc low takes a more
E/SE track (NAM solution) we will likely have overcast skies and
showers and an occasional rumble of thunder. There is a lot of
uncertainty with Monday and will just have to wait and see how
guidance grasp the situation. If we take more of a strong to
severe route, strong winds and hail would be the main threat.

Monday morning will likely start off with showers and thunderstorms
across the area, then a lull before a second round develops
during the afternoon. Showers will likely dissipate after
midnight. Temps Monday will be below the seasonal average as
rain showers are expected to dominate most of the day. Temps
will fall into the uppr 50s/low 60s overnight.


250 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC Guidance...

Overall the weather pattern continues with a prominent ridge
dominating most of the CONUS Tues through Thurs morning. The
next shortwave to break down the eastern edge of the ridge will
swing across the Great Lakes Region on Thursday. Guidance is in
fairly good agreeance that this wave will force a cold front
across the region bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the NY/PA. ATTM showers look to be
widespread in nature. Best time frame to see showers ATTM is
Tues AM through Tues PM. High pressure may build back into the
northeast just in time for the weekend.

Temps will rise into the uppr 70s/low 80s during the afternoon and
fall into the uppr 50s/low 60s during the nights.


Generally VFR conditions are expected today with continuing
high thin clouds at 15-20 kft. After 21Z, a few showers and
maybe a weak thunderstorm will develop...especially over
portions of ne PA. Otherwise just very light rain is possible
over central NY. KAVP still stands the best chance of showers
and t-storms during the 22Z-03Z period. Thunder and restrictions
are not impossible further north, such as KELM- KBGM, but it
will have a much tougher time. Winds will be generally variable
less than 5 knots through the period.


Sunday through Monday night...Periodic restrictions in showers-
thunderstorms, especially late Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Additional chances for showers and storms with
associated restrictions.




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