Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 061801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM...NOT MUCH GOING ON CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY STILL OVER SE CONUS WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EAST OF
THE DELMARVA. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM JUST APPROACHING
THE JERSEY SHORE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND N/W OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. EXPECT THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR NE PA ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE PUSHING N/W REACHING THE ROUTE 17 / I88
CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, EVEN FAR N/W
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO
ALL IN ALL, AN INCREASINGLY WET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE A LOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW
BEING PULLED N/W TOWARD SE PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOCATED OFF TO OUR SOUTH WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEST CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AS WELL HOWEVER WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF NE PA ZONES INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY. CLOUDS/RAIN
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S
OVER THE FAR NORTH SINCE RAIN WON`T MOVE IN UNTIL LATE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT, STACKED SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT RAIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING TO
JUST A FEW SHOWERS BY THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS BY THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE MAINLY A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER NE
PA WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE N/W BY LATE DAY. MOIST S/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING,
WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S...COOLEST EAST AND WARMEST WEST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT...MOSTLY A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. ALSO, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
ELEVATED AND VERY MINIMAL SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY WILL BE GUSTY AND COOL WITH A BRISK NW
FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
S/E COULD TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY DAY.

WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS WEAK
NARROW SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
DETAILS BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. (LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
60S) PERIODS OF SHOWERS. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT TUESDAY.
THE GFS HAS A RIDGE WHILE THE EURO DROPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SOUTH
AND REESTABLISHES THE TROF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PA TUE TO
WED THEN A STRONG SLOW MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE END OF THE WEEK. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING NW THROUGH THE CWA DROPPING CIGS AND
VSBYS. CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WITH FUEL ALTERNATES.

SOME IFR AT AVP WITH HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE STEADY SHOWERS ENDED
AVP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. BGM SHOULD ALSO FALL TO IFR CIGS 22 TO 02Z
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SYR MAY STAY ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE BUT
STILL MVFR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

N TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING EAST AT 5 KTS TONIGHT.
SATURDAY S TO SW WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUN NGT-MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE TO WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC


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