Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM


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