Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281128
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
728 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy fog and developing showers can be expected this morning,
with mild temperatures today. A cold front will move through
this afternoon, accompanied by rain. An area of high pressure,
over eastern Canada, will then build across the region
Wednesday and Thursday, to bring drier weather with cooler yet
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...
A wet and gray late March day in store. Mild temperatures, with
dewpoints reaching into mid 40s-near 50 range, will accelerate
melting for areas that still have snowpack on the ground. Though
rain amounts will not be very much, it will combine with
snowmelt to lead to potential minor flood issues within the
Upper Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna basins; as rises
occur in the rivers over the next couple of days. Please read
Hydrology section near the bottom of this Area Forecast
Discussion for further details.

Clouds are increasing in the west-southwest flow across the
region as wave of low pressure makes its way up the Ohio River
Valley. A lead cluster of showers even popped up around Hazleton
and is crossing the Poconos. Latest NAM run seems to have
initialized to current conditions rather poorly, thus I am be
leaning more on non-NAM high resolution models including HRRR-
RAP-ARW-NMM. These models allow batch of showers to move across
the Twin Tiers region in fairly quick order this morning, just
ahead of the upper wave and move up the frontal zone setting up
southwest-northeast across the area. Further north, showers will
have a harder time reaching across and beyond the New York
Thruway, though still a pretty good chance of at least drizzle
and light rain at times. And areawide, as lower levels continue
to moisten up, patchy fog can be expected.

As cold front oozes southeast this afternoon, showers will
continue, especially from Towanda-Binghamton-Cooperstown areas
southward. Highs will be generally be 50-55 degree range in
Central NY. However, temperatures in Northeast PA will manage
mid-to-upper 50s for highs, with dewpoints getting near 50. This
along with good proximity to upper wave will generate just a
little bit of instability and thus a slight chance of thunder to
accompany the showers with the front this afternoon.

Rain showers will then gradually dissipate northwest to
southeast into tonight. Colder air mass will infiltrate the
region, with lows eventually reach lower 30s to near 40. Rain
will be long gone before temperatures settle down that far.

All told we are expecting areal averages of about a quarter to
half inch of rain in Northeast PA and Sullivan County NY; a
tenth to third of an inch for the Southern Tier-Finger Lakes-
Upper Susquehanna areas of NY, and likely less than an tenth of
an inch along and north of the NY Thruway.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
250 AM update...
Canadian high pressure swinging across the Great Lakes will keep
the weather quiet and temperatures on the cool side for
Wednesday and early Thursday.

A more southerly flow will develop Thursday ahead of the next
approaching storm system. Temperatures in the mid-40s on
Wednesday will rise to around 50 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
255 AM update...
A powerful storm will move out of the central U.S. Thursday
night and spread a warm front into western NY and PA. This storm
will slowly track off the mid-Atlantic coast by early Saturday,
setting the stage for a long period of rain showers. Morning
temperatures on Friday and Saturday may be cold enough to
support snow or possibly mixed precipitation, especially east of
I-81.

The elongated period of showers will need to be watched.
Additional QPF runoff may cause hydrological issues, so we will
monitor this storm closely.

High pressure will bring a brief respite of quiet weather late
Saturday into Sunday before another frontal system approaches
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave of low pressure will bring batch of rain across the
terminals this morning, then reaching up to KSYR-KRME late
morning into early afternoon. This rain will moisten things up,
then lower levels will especially saturate as cold front oozes
through later this morning through afternoon, with eventual very
light northerly wind developing. Rain may diminish to patchy
drizzle before ending behind the front tonight, but fuel
alternate required to IFR ceilings will persist for KBGM-KITH-
KAVP-KELM, though KSYR-KRME should improve to higher end MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions early,
especially for the NY terminals, but clouds eventually scatter.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
315 PM EDT Monday UPDATE...
Issued a Flood Watch for the minor flood potential in the North
Branch Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins, including both
small streams and a few points on the main stem rivers. Walton
is currently the only point forecast by MARFC to flood, but
others in the Susquehanna basin are close.

Still expecting prolific snow melt, especially on Tuesday.
Rain amounts next 36 hours seem rather minimal at about one
half inch across the area of concern. Reports from a drive
around by our COOP manager today indicated still about 6-10" of
widespread snow cover in higher elevations of the Western
Catskills, with estimated SWE in excess of 2" still likely, so
the potential is there for sure. Without evidence in the models
of a major rain event, we should get by this with only
inconvenience flood issues. Looking ahead, though, the pattern
definitely has the potential for being unsettled at times
straight into the first week in April and we will need to remain
vigilant.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late Wednesday night
     for PAZ038-039.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late Wednesday night
     for NYZ045-046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...



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