Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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499
FXUS61 KBGM 171743
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1243 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will make its way into the region today
with rain developing. On the front end of it, temperatures will be
cold enough for a brief period of freezing rain, mainly this
morning and especially at higher elevations. Rain showers will
persist into Wednesday as the system slowly exits. Thursday into
Friday will be milder again with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1200 PM Update...
Have allowed Freezing Rain Advisory along the I-81 corridor from
Cortland/Chenango counties southward into NE PA to expire as
temperatures have warmed above freezing for most of this area.

Extended the Freezing Rain Advisory for Onondaga and Madison
counties until 2 pm this afternoon as temperatures along the
Mohawk Valley have struggled to warm above freezing. Numerous
observing sites still around 30-32 deg from Syracuse to Utica.
Rest of the forecast on track.

1000 AM Update...
Freezing Rain Advisory over portions of wrn/central NY, including
the wrn Finger Lakes has been cancelled as temperatures have risen
above freezing. Freezing Rain Advisory continues for areas to the
east.

Broad area of precipitation spreading ewd through
central NY and ne PA this morning with the cold air mass ahead of
the bulk of the precip gradually warming. There still exists a
chance of light freezing rain...mainly along and east of I-81
through the rest of the morning...with portions of the Mohawk
Valley and the Catskills possibly remaining cold enough to keep
the freezing precip around into the afternoon...and maybe even
into the evening as temperatures drop back below freezing.

Believe the main area of concern the rest of today will be the
Mohawk Valley from around Syracuse to Utica where temperatures are
still in the mid/upper 20s as of 10 am. The warm air associated
with the main precip shield will eventually allow temps to rise
above freezing, but there could be a period from now until 12 or 1
pm where light ice accumulations may cause some issues.

Areas to the south, the potential for ice will be more isolated
and likely confined to the colder higher elevations through noon.

345 AM Update...
Problem-of-the-day is brief period of light freezing rain on
front end of incoming system, mainly this morning and especially
at higher elevations. Freezing rain advisory is in effect for the
whole area, though it is developing more slowly than previously
anticipated and yet temperatures will still get above freezing
fairly quickly for most areas. Ice, where it occurs, will be quite
light for vast majority.

Thermal profiles are currently supportive of sleet and freezing
rain, but there has been a lot of dry air to overcome in the lower
levels as hinted at by most ceilings being in the 5 to 10 thousand
feet range despite echoes on radar. Up to this point it has been
almost completely virga. Latest model suite has been catching up
to the reality of this slower evolution, which overall is a good
thing because of allowing a little more time for warm air
advection before onset of rain. We will still have freezing rain
and perhaps sleet at the front end, but with these trends, its
duration will be quite short and also more favored at higher
elevations. Expectations on ice amounts have lowered further, to
the point that lower elevations may only get a trace whereas even
most higher elevations should fall well short of a tenth of an
inch. The exception will be higher terrain of Oneida-Eastern
Otsego-Eastern Delaware-Northern Sullivan counties which after
getting around or just above freezing this afternoon, will
actually backslide slightly to around 32 degrees again into this
evening as rain continues. Thus highest elevations there could get
one or two tenths of an inch of ice.

Though ice itself will be brief for most areas, it will be plenty
wet today. Rain will then gradually diminish into Wednesday as the
system slowly exits and ridging occurs. Wet snowflakes could mix
in at highest elevations of with very little if any accumulation.
We are carrying four to eight tenths of an inch of total rainfall
today through Wednesday, highest north, yet approaching an inch
roughly along the NY Thruway. This will be enough to cause rises
again on waterways but flooding is not anticipated. See hydrology
section of discussion for more details.

Temperatures will find their way into the upper 30s-lower 40s for
highs today, except highest elevations well east of I-81 will get
just slightly above freezing for highs. Temperatures will then
only move move a few degrees tonight through Wednesday as damp
conditions persist with the gradual passage of the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM update...
As low pressure slides up the Atlantic coast and weak high
pressure builds into PA, moisture will decrease in the atmosphere.
From the latest model runs, it isn`t clear if the widely scattered
precipitation Wednesday night will be in the form of drizzle or
rain/snow showers. While isolated pockets of freezing drizzle are
possible, confidence is low, so we will forecast rain/snow showers
for now.

High pressure building across NY and PA will bring clearing skies
Thursday and Thursday night with temperatures several degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM update...
No major changes to this forecast package. A few rain or snow showers
are possible over the weekend as a low pressure center rotates to
our west. A stronger storm with copious moisture will approach the
Ohio Valley on Sunday, spreading rain across NY and PA Sunday and
Monday.

Overall, temperatures look to remain well above normal for late-January.

2 PM Update...
Ridge of high pressure shifts off to the east Thursday night and
Friday morning as a developing area of low pressure over the
central CONUS lifts a weak warm front newd through the Ohio Valley
and Mid Atlantic region. This warm front will allow the fairly
mild temperatures to continue into the weekend with rain starting
up later in the day Friday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding the nwrd extent of the precip shield and the
warm front with the 12Z ECMWF the fastest and most north with the
rain and rain/snow mix in the higher elevations. The latest GFS
stalls out the warm front across srn NY Saturday morning and then
washes it out later in the day with an area of high pressure and
drier air building in over New England. This wedge of dry air may
keep conditions quiet over central NY and ne PA through Sunday.
The latest 12Z CMC is more similar to the GFS...so an attempt was
made to trend toward a GFS/CMC solution. Either way at this time
it appears precipitation amounts will be fairly light.

Temperatures remain steady and mild with highs in the lower to mid
40s and night time lows in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread rain will continue across the region this afternoon and
evening with IFR/MVFR vsbys in -RA/BR. Ceilings will lower later
today and tonight to IFR and Below Alt Minimums.

There is still some indication of low level wind shear across the
region this afternoon...so added mention to the 18Z TAFs. Surface
winds generally southeast 5-10 knots, though KITH- KBGM- KELM-KAVP
will veer more southerly/south- southwest tonight.

Ceilings will only see minor improvement Wed morning with rain
letting up or changing to DZ and vsbys jumping to MVFR or VFR.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday afternoon and night...Lingering restrictions as rain
gradually diminishes to scattered showers. Possible ra/sn mix at
times for KRME.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance for mixed rain-snow and associated
restrictions.

Sunday...Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding is expected.

Rainfall Tuesday to Wednesday of half an inch to an inch and some
snow melt will cause streams and rivers to rise again. Some of
the headwaters and Wilkes-Barre could get back to caution stage.
Rainfall will be mostly half an inch with close to an inch in the
far north. Snow melt will add little to the runoff. Water
equivalent in northeast PA and the southern Catskills is less than
a quarter inch. Except for northern Oneida County NY, snow is
patchy and confined to the woods. This will add little also with
temperatures mostly in the 30s.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-
     037-046-057-062.
     Freezing Rain Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ018-036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP
HYDROLOGY...



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