Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 210853
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT ARE RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN






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