Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 192344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...






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