Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 101743
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING THE AREA SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE ARE ALREADY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA...WHICH YIELDED A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY HOLD THINGS BACK TO MAINLY JUST FLURRIES LATE
MORNING...BUT LAKE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND IS ALREADY
ORGANIZING ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SOUTH SHORE. THIS SHOULD SNEAK
BACK ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
WOBBLING IN PLACEMENT. IN THIS INITIAL PHASE OF THE EVENT...LIFT
WILL EXIST MAINLY BELOW THE DENDRITE ZONE...AND THERE WILL BE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO FOR NOW IT WILL
GENERALLY COME IN SHORT-LIVED BURSTS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT
1-3 INCHES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL THINGS GET BETTER ORGANIZED
TONIGHT. LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO SEND CLUSTERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 430 AM LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS
WAS LIFTING OUT AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA.

ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NRN NYS AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS TO CENTRAL NY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE TWO INCHES
OR LESS. IN THE SNOW ADV/WARNING AREA ACCUMS COULD APPROACH THREE
INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY THIS EVENING T85 DROPS LOW
ENOUGH FOR LES TO BEGIN. THROUGH LATE EVENING MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND VARIABILITY WITHIN THE MIXED
LAYER THAT EXTENDS TO ALMOST 700 MB. BUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 290/300 FLOW IS
DEPICTED. AT THE SAME TIME T85 DROPS TO AROUND -20C BY 18Z. DUE TO
THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT, VERY COLD AIRMASS AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING DECIDED TO UPGRADE
ADVISORY TO A WARNING ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE FLAG IN TIME INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT, LIFTING THE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM
6-12 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM THE SYR AREA SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY. FOR SENECA, SRN CAYUGA,
CORTLAND, CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
ADVISORY THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMS HERE WILL RANGE FROM 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OT
TWO.

TONIGHT, LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MINS, WITH THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD
AIR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 20 WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO
TO 10 BELOW. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NE PA.
FRIDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND T85 AROUND -25C WILL BRING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE BITTER COLD FOR THIS
WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE THE NE WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. WE
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH MODEL BLEND KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND BUT
MADE SOME DEVIATIONS...GOING EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THIS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS SATURDAY AND ALSO RAISING THE POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY DETAILS, CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY ON BITTER NW FLOW. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HOWEVER IT
WILL ACTUALLY BE SO COLD ENTIRE PROFILE WILL BE COLDER THAN
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
DESPITE EXTREME INSTABILITY. DUE KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN FOR SENECA EAST THROUGH CAYUGA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY, ONLY SOME MODERATION EXPECTED COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT, THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG
HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THERE`S A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHEST IMPACTED TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE KSYR AND KRME.
GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS HERE WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS EVENING, STEADIER
AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT
TIMES WITH -SHSN BUT THINK THOSE PERIODS WILL BE SHORT AND HAVE
NOT ADDED THE TEMPOS FOR THESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MUCH OF THE OTHER SITES. AFTER 03-06Z WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ALIGN ENOUGH TO FAVOR A LONG DURATION, LONG
EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM NEAR KRME, TO OVER KSYR. IFR VSBYS VERY
LIKELY, WITH AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AT KSYR THROUGH PARTS TO MAYBE
EVEN MUCH OF THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES THAT SHOULD NOT REALLY LIMIT VSBY MUCH
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS


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