Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN




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