Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301849
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue to be the theme of the forecast
through the weekend as the storm system that has impacted the
region the past few days, continues to influence the weather.
Drier conditions are expected to return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Area of showes associated with deep southeast flow and isentropic
lift is gradually lifting north across central NY. Once this area
of showers moves north of the area early this evening it looks
like a break of dry weather can be expected for most of the area
later tonight beased on mainly dry condtions covering central and
southern Pa. Another wave will rotate northward around the
persistent Ohio Valley upper low Saturday bringing an increasing
chance for showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Temperatures will only vary by a few degrees this afternoon
through tonight... with lows tonight mainly in the 50s.
Expect only a slow rise in temperature on Saturday with thick
cloud cover and developing showers... with highs in mostly places
near or just above 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
145 pm Friday update...During this period, model consensus
continues to point towards a gradual opening up/lifting out of the
pesky upper low/trough that has been plaguing the region the last
several days.

One last round of showers/isolated thunder is expected Sunday, as
the main residual trough axis lifts across the region. Although
widely scattered lingering showers are still possible Monday,
mainly over our eastern zones, we should be trending towards
rain-free weather early next week.

Once again, with no real push of cooler air, temperatures will
continue to average near to above normal for early October, with
highs mostly in the upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm Friday update...The early to middle portions of next week
continue to look generally dry, as a progressive upper ridge
translates across the eastern states. Temperatures still look to
average above normal, with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.

At this early vantage point, our global models keep Hurricane
Matthew no closer than the southeastern U.S. coastal waters
through the middle of next week (no impact through this period on
central NY/northeastern PA), with plenty of model
spread/uncertainty on the exact positioning this far out in time.
It will likely take a number of days before we zero in on a higher
confidence track forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will lift north across central NY late this afternoon into
this evening... then most of the area will experience dry weather
overnight. Cigs will fall to MVFR all areas this evening and
remain MVFR with areas of IFR overnight into Saturday morning.
Patches of MVFR vsbys will also develop in areas of fog and
possible drizzle overnight. Conditions will improve only slowly on
Saturday with cigs from 2500-3500 feet expected by afternoon along
with an increasing chance of showers as another system approaches
from the southwest.

Winds will be mainly from the east at 5 to 10 kts through
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night-Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and showers.

Monday-Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH



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