Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 311859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMOUNG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN





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