Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP


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