Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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448 FXUS64 KCRP 090506 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1206 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Key Messages: Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts, Heat Advisory in effect for inland Nueces and inland Kleberg Thursday Haze from near-surface smoke lingers and worsens outdoor exposure health risk A weak dryline is currently located right along the Rio Grande up to Del Rio and northeastward. This is expected to move into the Brush Country over the next couple of hours, reducing humidity out west. The greatest heat index values are still expected over the southern Coastal Bend including inland Nueces, inland Kleberg, and Jim Wells Counties. There`s still a few hours of heating potential left in breaks of clouds in combination of dewpoints near 80 to cause heat index values of 110. Therefore, will maintain the Heat Advisory through 7 PM this evening. Haze has been observed across all of South Texas through the day today and will continue through Thursday night. Smoke guidance from the HRRR shows increased near-surface smoke concentration advecting from Central America up to South Texas. Weakening winds with high dewpoints will also lead to a threat of patchy fog in combination with the haze. Lows tonight will flirt around the record high minimum values for the 7th day in a row. Although the dryline retreats northwestward tonight, it will push back through most of the Brush Country on Thursday and force clouds to be focused right along the coast to the Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon. The dryline will allow air temperatures to climb around 105-108 over the Brush Country. How high the heat index values get to Thursday will be dependent on the eastward extent of the dryline. As of now, it is expected to halt just west of inland Kleberg and inland Nueces counties, resulting in a medium chance of at least 110 heat indices in the afternoon. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory for those two county portions from 1-7 PM Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Key Messages: Weak cold front Friday morning Rain chances return this weekend Models are beginning to come into better agreement showing a weak cold front pushing through the region Friday morning providing some relief from the recent above normal temperatures. While rain chances are low with the cold front, rain chances will increase Saturday as the front retreats northward as a warm front ushering in PWAT between 2.0-2.1". Low end chances (20% or less) for rain Saturday will increase to a medium (30-55%) chance Sunday and Monday as a shortwave moves across the region interacting with the abundant moisture. While the Victoria Crossroads appears to be the early favorite for the best chances of rain, the whole county warning area will be in play especially Monday, when models show a surface low moving across the area. Rain chances will quickly taper off early next week as we begin to dry out. Temperatures in the wake of the front will drop into the 80s Friday afternoon and Saturday with most of the region in the lower to upper 80s. Temperatures will begin to increase once again Sunday before climbing back into the lower to upper 90s early next week into mid- week. Lows throughout the long term period are expected to remain steady in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A mix of IFR (ALI/CRP), MVFR (VCT/COT) and VFR (LRD) conditions are currently in place across South Texas. Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR/IFR tonight with occasional LIFR over ALI, CRP, and VCT between 08-13Z. LRD will remain VFR. Lower visibilities due to haze will continue across the area tonight and into Thursday. In addition to haze, patchy fog will also be likely as low dewpoint depressions will coexist with winds less than 10 kts. A weak dryline will push into the Brush Country from the west Thursday afternoon, leading to a weak northwesterly winds at LRD, COT, and ALI. Weak southeasterly winds will persist elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Weak to moderate onshore winds can be expected through Thursday night along with patchy fog in the late night and early morning hours. In addition to patchy fog, haze from near-surface smoke southward will likely continue before our next front passes. A cold front will move offshore Friday morning. Weak to moderate northeast winds Friday will strengthen to moderate to strong Saturday as it shifts to the east. By early next week, winds will shift to the southeast and remain moderate. Rain chances return Saturday with a low chance and increases to a medium chance Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 90 76 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 106 78 108 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 78 87 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 77 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 78 90 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ242-243. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...KRS/98