930
FXUS62 KFFC 140555
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Current Mosaic radar loop shows mainly showers moving across North
and Central GA this afternoon. There are a few lightning strikes
mainly south of MCN and CSG but the main area of thunderstorms is
staying along the Gulf coast. With these storms hugging the gulf
coast over the next 24 hours and the best instability and
atmospheric energy staying south as well it makes sense that SPC has
pulled the marginal risk out of north and central GA and keeping it
across South GA Forecast rainfall totals through tonight have also
been reduced due to the decreased convective potential, and we now
expect amounts in the 0.20 to 0.90 inch range through 8 AM Tuesday
mainly across central GA.

As for Tuesday a weak shortwave trough should rotate around the
parent trough in the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning. This should
lead to a relative peak in rainfall coverage across the state.
Clearing skies behind the shortwave and diurnal heating should
result in the development of scattered thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Though mid-level lapse range appear modest (5.5-6.0
C/km), increasing instability (SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km
shear values between 20 and 35 kt could generate a couple of strong
or severe thunderstorms. The main hazards with any storms are
expected to be damaging winds, periods of heavy rain, frequent
lightning strikes, and  hail. The storm prediction center currently
has all of North and Central GA painted with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather. The showers and thunderstorms will
slowly diminish after sunset Tuesday with some showers continuing
across North GA with the wrap around moisture from the parent low
over IL/IN/KY.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Looking at the week ahead beginning with Wednesday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area as the
low pressure system to the north moves off into the Atlantic.
Following this system slight ridging sets up to the west causing us
to have a dry period into Thursday as our next system sets up. This
dry period will accompany a slight warmup but overall a pleasant week
is expected.

Looking at the next system, there relies a bit of model spread at
this point. A low pressure system moves eastward across the mid
Mississippi valley bringing us rainfall for Friday along with a cool
down into the mid to upper 70s for highs. Where the uncertainty
comes is whether the system will become cutoff and mainly affect
southern GA through the weekend or if we will see this rainfall into
north and central GA. Currently kept PoPs relatively on trend from
the overnight package, but increased rainfall will be something to
watch for central GA into the weekend should this system track
further north. Current rainfall amounts are 2-2.5" over 18 hours but
our Pwats are anonymously higher for this time of year with Pwats
close to 2.5" forecasted which remains a concern. Will keep watching
this as the week progresses.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A mix of LIFR, IFR and MVFR conditions (ceilings 300 to 1500 ft
AGL and visibilities of 2 to 6 SM) will continue through 15Z
Tuesday, then the majority of the region should gradually shift
towards MVFR conditions (ceilings 1000 to 3000 ft AGL). Rain
showers will continue in northern and central Georgia through 04Z
Wednesday, with isolated thunderstorms possible between 18Z
Tuesday and 04Z Wednesday. Southeast winds (2 to 8 kt) will
continue through 15Z, then southwest winds (6 to 14 kt) will
develop, especially over central Georgia. Wind gusts in the 20 to
35 kt range could (40% chance) occur at KMCN or KCSG.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the wind, ceiling and visibility forecasts.
Low confidence in the thunderstorm forecast.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  81  60  86 /  60  30   0   0
Atlanta         63  80  62  85 /  50  20   0   0
Blairsville     57  73  57  79 /  70  60  10   0
Cartersville    61  79  59  84 /  50  30   0   0
Columbus        66  83  62  87 /  60   0   0   0
Gainesville     63  78  62  83 /  40  40   0   0
Macon           65  83  62  86 /  60  10   0   0
Rome            61  80  59  85 /  60  30   0   0
Peachtree City  63  81  60  86 /  60  10   0   0
Vidalia         69  86  66  87 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Albright