Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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676 FXUS62 KFFC 120615 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 215 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Quiet weather continues this afternoon with just some fair weather cumulus dotting area skies. Early afternoon temperatures range from the lower to mid 60s across the NE mountains to the mid 70s across the S. A weak, reinforcing cold front will sweep into the N portion of the state this evening. There may be enough instability and forcing to squeeze out a few showers across the NE mountains. Otherwise, another quiet night is on tap with forecast lows ranging from the mid 40s in the NE to the upper 50s across portions of the S. High clouds will begin to increase across the area during the day Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal system moving out of the S Plains and MS Valley. High temperatures on Sunday will range from near 70 across the NE mountains to the lower 80s across the S third of the area. Some showers may arrive across the SW by late Sunday night as clouds continue to thicken and lower. /SEC SEC && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 At a glance: -A week of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms through the long term. -A break in the rain is possible Wednesday and Thursday but it returns in time for the weekend. An unsettled and messy pattern is set to dominate most of the long term. Sunday should be a pretty nice day with temps in the low 80s for most of the CWA but a trough across the southern midwest will kick off a few days of unsettled weather keeping temps on the cooler side thanks to radiation cooling. By Tuesday the front will begin to lift off to the NE and as the day heats up the GFS seems to suggest we could generate in excess of 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in the afternoon with enough bulk shear to ensure we keep an eye on it. However, there are still a number of questions in regards to whether or not conditions will ultimately be favorable for more than a few isolated thunderstorms. The diurnal cycle, timing, and any cap that we`ll need to overcome given our rain cooled environment; as some parts of our CWA could see up to two inches of rain. Tuesday may be worth keeping in the back of your mind, but as of right now we`re in a "wait and see" mind set. We get a "break" in the weather Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, although low end PoPs stick around across the northern and southern ends of the CWA before another trough takes aim at us toward the end of next week. Needless to say, we`re too far out to make any kind of severe weather assessment. Right now the concern will remain on the hydro side as another good shot of rain will likely stress our already damp soils and swollen rivers. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions (SKC to SCT AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) should prevail through 06Z Monday, then MVFR/IFR conditions (ceilings between 600 an 2000 ft AGL) may mix in over western Georgia. Scattered showers could occur after 06Z Monday. Light northwest winds (2 to 8 kt) are expected through 01Z Monday, after which point light and variable (0 to 3 kt) winds should prevail. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is high for all elements. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 73 61 75 / 0 50 90 90 Atlanta 60 72 62 76 / 10 70 90 90 Blairsville 51 67 56 69 / 0 60 80 90 Cartersville 56 72 60 77 / 10 70 80 90 Columbus 62 76 65 79 / 20 70 80 90 Gainesville 57 70 61 73 / 0 60 90 90 Macon 60 74 64 78 / 10 70 70 100 Rome 56 73 62 78 / 10 70 80 90 Peachtree City 58 72 62 78 / 10 70 80 90 Vidalia 63 78 67 80 / 0 60 80 90 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...Albright