Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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450 FXUS62 KFFC 092351 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 751 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A very active today across the area with a the overnight MCS followed by another MCS that dove SE across AL this morning. Shower and tstm activity continues across the S half of the County Warning Area (CWA), with the strongest storms (some severe) across the extreme S. Tornado Watch number 216 was extended across the S until 3 PM. Tornado Watch number 217 continues S of that area until 5 PM. Activity is expected to gradually sag farther S through the remainder of the afternoon and eventually weaken S of the CWA. The respite in weather will be short-lived, as a quick-moving MCS is forecast to sweep across the S portion of the area late tonight and Fri morning. High resolution models have been very consistent regarding strength and timing of this feature. However, the fly in the ointment is the lingering cool pool N of today`s line of convection. There will likely be some recovery in instability across the area (particularly where storms ended the earliest). However, this feature will be moving across late at night and early in the morning. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to be farther to the S, with severe storms possible (mainly S of Macon). The greatest threat will be damaging winds with this system, but there will be a lesser threat of hail and isolated tornadoes. The forecast will likely be further honed later this evening as the impact of earlier convection becomes more clear. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances look to return to the region next week as another low pressure system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward. QPF values have been adjust slightly based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, little change was made to the existing packages. 07/SEC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 TSRA from this afternoon has moved southward out of the forecast area and away from all TAF sites. Aside from scattered MVFR level clouds, in north and central Georgia over the next couple of hours, VFR conditions are expected to persist through late tonight. Another cluster of thunderstorms has developed over central Alabama, which will bring the potential for another round of precip during the early morning hours. Highest confidence of precip occurring is at CSG, where there is prevailing SHRA after 06Z and a TEMPO with winds of VRB20G40KT from 09-13Z. Elsewhere, PROB30 for TSRA is being carried starting at 10Z due to uncertainty on storm motion. Ceilings are anticipated to lower to MVFR by 09Z, then lift back to VFR by 16Z and scatter out by 19-20Z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be primarily SW at 5-10 kts overnight into Friday morning, shifting to NE at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts after 16Z and through the remainder of the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 65 83 52 77 / 10 30 0 0 Atlanta 66 82 54 76 / 40 30 0 0 Blairsville 58 74 46 69 / 10 20 0 10 Cartersville 62 80 49 76 / 30 20 0 0 Columbus 67 85 57 80 / 70 60 0 0 Gainesville 65 80 53 75 / 10 30 0 0 Macon 67 83 56 79 / 40 60 0 0 Rome 63 80 51 76 / 30 20 0 0 Peachtree City 65 83 52 78 / 50 40 0 0 Vidalia 69 83 59 80 / 40 90 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...King