593
FXUS62 KFFC 130556
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

At a glance:

 - Increasing cloudiness tonight, with rain spreading NE into the
   area late tonight and Monday morning.

 - Locally heavy rainfall possible across the S by late Monday.

Thick high clouds have shifted S to near and S of CSG and MCN.
Otherwise, skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy with thinner high
clouds. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 60s over
the NE mountains to the mid 70s over the SE.

A weak upper ridge will build over the area tonight ahead of an
approaching upper low. This low will move from the Central Plains to
the central MS Valley by late Monday night. At the surface, low
pressure will lift NE into the mid-MS Valley. A warm front will begin
to lift NE from the Gulf Coast with fairly robust isentropic lift
spreading across the area from the SW and W. This will promote
lowering and thickening clouds tonight, with rain spreading into the
area late tonight and early Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall
rates are expected to set up closer to the warm front over the S
portion of the area, with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall likely near the
Columbus area by daybreak Tue. Most of the activity will start off as
showers, with scattered thunderstorms possible over the SW half of
the area by late Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 50s across the NE
mountains, ranging to near 60 in the Atlanta metro area and lower
60s across the S. Due to the thickening cloud cover and rain, highs
on Monday will range from the mid 60s across the NE mountains to the
upper 70s across the extreme S. As rainfall continues Monday night,
overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 60s in most
locations, with some upper 50s in the NE mountains. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

At a glance:

    - Bookend chances for showers and thunderstorms

    - Temperatures slightly below average

To kick off the extended range on Tuesday, a closed mid-level low
will be making its way across the Midwest. Mass response leads to the
formation of an accompanying surface low,and the combination of the
two will serve as the impetus for our first wave of rain (and storm)
chances. Much of the forecast -- especially as it pertains to chances
for severe weather -- will hinge on how far north the warm front
drifts during the day Tuesday. Kinematics (30-40kt jet at 850mb)
support the development of isolated strong to marginally severe
storms during the afternoon and evening, but should the frontal push
be further south than currently analyzed, the most unstable airmass
would be relegated to just portions of our far southern tier. On the
opposite side of the coin, a stalled front across south central
Georgia would serve as a source for continued re-development of
storms and an increased risk for flash flooding. Sandier soils south
of the Fall Line do require more precipitation before becoming
saturated, and current 36 hour rainfall totals are between 2-3" (with
locally higher amounts as high as 4"). With all that said, SPC
currently has the entire state under a Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe
weather, and WPC has outlined a Slight (2/4) Risk for excessive
rainfall south of the I-85/I-20 interchange. Better detail will be
available in coming model runs.

We`ll see clearing from south to north moving into Wednesday as mid-
level forcing exits and continues to sweep across the DelMarVa
region. Wraparound precipitation in the wake of the surface low is in
the cards for areas north of I-20 on Wednesday, but coverage will be
light and patchy, and additional QPF is expected to be low (<0.25").
A shortwave, low amplitude ridge moves in across the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys in the wake of Tuesday`s weather, and more
tranquil conditions are expected through Friday morning.

Beyond that, chances for showers and thunderstorms look to return
once again to close off the work week with the arrival of yet another
frontal system, but disagreement among global models precludes
giving much more detail than that.

Highs each day will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and
precipitation chances (or lack thereof). Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Friday -- the rainiest of the long term -- look to see highs top out
in the lower-70s to lower-80s (and mid 80s for far south central
Georgia). Otherwise, highs in the 80s. Lows will be fairly uniformly
in the upper-50s to 60s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions (BKN-OVC AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will linger in the region through 12Z today. After
12Z a gradual transition to MVFR then IFR conditions (ceilings
600-3000 ft AGL) is expected. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will also become more widespread, with impacts to
visibility (2 to 6 SM) possible for all the TAF sites. The
likelihood of thunderstorms was to low to include them in any of
the TAFs at this time. Winds will be calm through 13Z Monday, then
east to southeast (080-150) winds (4 to 12 kt) will develop and
linger through at least 12Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation timing.
Low confidence regarding onset timing of the MVFR/IFR ceilings,
but high confidence that they will occur.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  75  63  81 / 100 100  60  20
Atlanta         62  77  64  79 /  90 100  60  20
Blairsville     57  69  59  72 /  90 100  80  60
Cartersville    61  77  62  78 /  90  90  60  30
Columbus        65  80  65  83 /  90 100  40  10
Gainesville     62  73  64  78 /  90 100  70  40
Macon           64  79  65  83 /  90 100  50  10
Rome            62  77  62  80 /  90 100  60  30
Peachtree City  62  78  63  81 /  90 100  50  10
Vidalia         65  81  69  86 /  90 100  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Albright