Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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034 FXUS62 KFFC 100549 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 149 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A very active today across the area with a the overnight MCS followed by another MCS that dove SE across AL this morning. Shower and tstm activity continues across the S half of the County Warning Area (CWA), with the strongest storms (some severe) across the extreme S. Tornado Watch number 216 was extended across the S until 3 PM. Tornado Watch number 217 continues S of that area until 5 PM. Activity is expected to gradually sag farther S through the remainder of the afternoon and eventually weaken S of the CWA. The respite in weather will be short-lived, as a quick-moving MCS is forecast to sweep across the S portion of the area late tonight and Fri morning. High resolution models have been very consistent regarding strength and timing of this feature. However, the fly in the ointment is the lingering cool pool N of today`s line of convection. There will likely be some recovery in instability across the area (particularly where storms ended the earliest). However, this feature will be moving across late at night and early in the morning. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to be farther to the S, with severe storms possible (mainly S of Macon). The greatest threat will be damaging winds with this system, but there will be a lesser threat of hail and isolated tornadoes. The forecast will likely be further honed later this evening as the impact of earlier convection becomes more clear. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances look to return to the region next week as another low pressure system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward. QPF values have been adjust slightly based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, little change was made to the existing packages. 07/SEC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions will linger over the region through 18Z Friday. These conditions will primarily be driven by low ceilings, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce reduced visibilities at times. Storms may produce strong wind gusts or small hail across central Georgia. Storms are most likely at the TAF sites between 09Z and 13Z Friday. Winds will be variable at 3 to 8 kt through 15Z Friday, then west to northwest winds (10 to 20 kt with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range) will occur between 16Z Friday and 02Z Saturday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate. Moderate confidence in the visibility, precipitation and wind forecasts. Low confidence in the potential for thunderstorms between 10Z and 13Z Friday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 54 76 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 46 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 49 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 53 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 56 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 51 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 52 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 59 80 58 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...Albright