Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 011554
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1154 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WAS
OVERRUNNING THE MARINE LAYER IN OUR REGION AND FEEDING INTO THE
AREA OF STEADY RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. THE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR
REGION. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN OUR FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THERE WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS
WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY
OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON
THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN
MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY
WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT
OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST
FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY VALUES ANTICIPATED TO VARY BETWEEN
CATEGORIES BASED ON RAINFALL RATES. THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO LET UP THIS EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CONDITIONS WILL STAY IFR AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ
WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA



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