Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 250815
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
415 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly push northward across
the region today.  meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the
west, moving into the region tonight and Tuesday, before stalling
near or just to the south of the area through the midweek period. A
couple of areas of low pressure may develop and move along this
boundary as it remains over the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A warm frontal boundary will lift northeastward this morning into
New England. After the warm frontal passage, relative humidity will
climb across the region. Temperatures will also quickly rise
throughout the day as an even warmer airmass moves northward. A look
at boundary layer temperatures and modeled two meter temperatures
show the potential for many locations to see highs in the mid and
upper 90`s, which match that of the ECMWF and the MET guidance sets.
Coupled with the increased relative humidity, heat index values will
likely push 105 in many locations near and south of the Philadelphia
region with values near 100 degrees north and west. Carbon and
Monroe counties were added to the advisory given the potential for
values near 100 degrees across portions of the counties. Stay
indoors if possibile, drink plenty of water and keep an eye on the
elderly, children and pets through this prolonged heat wave.

A potential uncertainty with the exact magnitude of the heat today
will be the development of showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest focused near a cold front. Agree with the thinking of the
HRRR, NAM and GFS which show thunderstorms moving southeast into the
region by late afternoon that then move toward Philadelphia by early
evening. This timing allows for peak heating to occur before the
arrival of any storms for most of the area.


These storms then would decrease in intensity tonight over Delmarva.
An ample amount of instability is modeled around 1,500 J/KG of CAPE
with steep low level lapse rates. The steep low level lapse rates
would suggest some gusty winds could occur with a few storms today.
The lack of mid-level dry air may be a limiting factor for downburst
potential today from storms. The current expectation is a few storms
could have gusty winds.  For now, thinking most places that see
storms will see around 1/4-1/2 inch of rainfall with lower amounts
in the Delmarva further away from the frontal boundary. Raised pops
to likely for a few hours from north to south across the region
north of Delmarva.

Outside of storms, enough mixing looks present in the soundings
across the region to suggest some wind gusts near 20 mph could
occur from the southwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The cold frontal boundary will push through tonight with
thunderstorms clearing the coast early in the evening. However,
another muggy night is expected with lows still in the mid and upper
70`s for most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will be through much of the area before it stalls in
the vicinity of Delmarva Tuesday and Tuesday night. It will then
remain nearly over the Delmarva through the middle of the week.
Drier and less hot air will try to filter into the region from the
north. Areas north of Philadelphia will see some relief from the
heat and humidity with high temperatures trending down to the lower
90s by Wednesday with dew point temperatures dropping into the lower
to mid 60s. Philadelphia metro and southern New Jersey will also see
high temperatures drop into the low 90s, but will likely see dew
point temperatures remain in the middle to upper 60s. Finally,
further south across the Delmarva, the only relief will be the lower
temperatures as dew point temperatures will remain in the 70s. This
area will also likely continue to have a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms due to the more humid airmass and the proximity to the
frontal boundary. Areas further north should stay dry for the middle
of the week.

As the week progresses, the frontal boundary will shift slightly
northward resulting in a return to more humid conditions and a
threat of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. The
models are starting to hint that a couple of areas of low pressure
will develop and move along the boundary. This will increase
the amount of clouds, humidity levels and the chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions this morning and into the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely begin to develop to our northwest by mid
afternoon and move southeast through the early evening. Tempo groups
have been added to the TAF`s to account for this potential of
lower ceilings and VSBYS. Storms should only last for an hour or two
at any given location. However, the exact timing is still uncertain.
Some southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 knots could occur in the
afternoon as well.

VFR tonight after thunderstorms end with winds shifting to westerly
late under 10 knots.

Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with
MVFR/IFR conditions possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will start the day near two feet likely rising in
the southern waters during the afternoon and evening hours getting
close to four feet. Some southwest wind gusts around 20 knots could
occur in the afternoon hours today.

Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected to continue on the area waters through much of the week.
Expect higher winds and waves in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that become more likely at the end of the week.

Rip Currents...Today`s risk for formation of dangerous rip currents
is low. However if the wind were to turn south 15 kt and a 4 ft 5
second southerly swell were to develop late in the day, we`d
probably experience a low enhanced risk along the NJ coasts. A
south to north longshore current will prevail. Beyond Monday: with
the Atlantic Basin continuing quiet tropically, unless we get a
strong onshore flow...RC risk this coming week should be generally
low. Tstms and pockets of chilly upwelling water may the greater
concerns. There is some sign of colder upwelling along the coasts
this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The forecast high temperature for Philadelphia today, July 25th,
is currently 98F. The last time the temperature reached or
exceeded 98F at PHL was three years ago on July 18, 2013. The last
100-degree day at PHL occurred four years ago on July 18, 2012.


Record high temperatures for Monday through Thursday are below. We
may tie or break daily record highs tomorrow at several of our
climate sites.

KABE and KRDG had record equaling highs on Sunday the 24th.


Site    25th      26th       27th       28th
----    ----      ----       ----       ----

PHL...  96-1899   101-1892   101-1940   100-1941

ABE...  95-1999   98-1940     98-1955    97-1949

ACY...  99-2010   96-2011     99-2005    98-1999

ILG...  96-1987   99-1894    100-1894   101-1894

TTN...  97-1999   99-1892    100-1894   101-1894

GED...  99-2010   97-2012     98-2005    99-1949

RDG...  96-1999   99-1940     98-1955    99-1941

MPO...  90-1999   89-1949     91-1955    93-1949

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NJZ001-007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for DEZ002>004.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...JK
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...JK
Aviation...Gaines/JK
Marine...Gaines/JK
Climate...Staff



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