Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011406
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 957 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED. GENERALLY
QUIET ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (BASES
BETWEEN 10,000 AND 13,000 FT) ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN ABLE TO DROP A FEW SPRINKLES PER WEB CAM IMAGES AND
OBSERVATION FROM THE OGDENSBURG AIRPORT.

WITH THE BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
QUICKLY AND A BIT FASTER THAN OUR HOURLY TRENDS HAD. 12Z SOUNDING
FROM ALBANY INDICATES 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 83F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UP 1 DEGREE AND SYNCHED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

STILL LOOKING AT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A
T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE ARE NO
OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS TO BE FOUND. THOUGH THAT SAID,
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BACKS JUST A BIT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF COURSE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TUESDAY. STILL CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES IN
FLOW ALOFT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-14C MONDAY/TUESDAY...COOLING JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY MID WEEK

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL
AS SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING AT SLK/MPV WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z...AND
MORE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS SAME SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





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