Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES


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