Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND SKY COVER WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND NEAR TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN VERMONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
EXPECTING MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN VERMONT. HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS ON MONDAY FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST.

BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I
EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF
LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS
CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE
BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES
OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH,
CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER, A
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD. I`VE SHOWN CEILINGS DIPPING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY, BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN QUEBEC,
CEILINGS MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY, BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. THAT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS AT ANY TAF SITE. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE
SHOWN VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO BE AROUND. WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV


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