Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW


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