Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251900
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we
progress toward the late afternoon/early evening hours. The tail
end of a weak surface trough/front is in the process of dropping
south into our northern counties as of 300 pm with a modest wind
shift to the west/northwest behind the boundary across neighboring
southern QE/ON. The front will cross the region this evening with
little fanfare, though weak instability, combined with increasing
0-6km shear and some PVA from a shortwave passing off to our
northeast may be just enough to spark a few showers/isolated
storms along and north of a KSLK to K1V4 line through 8-9pm or so.
Given our deep boundary layer this afternoon (to 10 kft) any storm
that does develop will have the potential to produce locally gusty
winds and will continue this idea through early evening. The
threat is conditional however. By later tonight skies gradually
trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure
returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any
areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest
probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of
bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55
with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak
frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will
foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame,
after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday
morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a
shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so.
Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any
storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur,
brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After
12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat apears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.