Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 280509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO
OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT SATURDAY... BASED ON RADAR TRENDS I CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS. CURRENT
OBS AND COMPOSITE RADAR ARE SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FRANKLIN AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH BEFORE MEETING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE HIGH PEAKS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND TAPERING OFF. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LIGHT SNOW OVER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...AGAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL JUST
TO OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A CHANGE FINALLY TAKES PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND PRONOUNCED
DRYING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR
AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN
ENDING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO JUST A CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME
TEENS IN THE COLDER AREAS. WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS WED AND WED PM WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH FRI WILL
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY
MSS/SLK/MPV THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 08Z SATURDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. CEILINGS 4000-6000 FEET TO START SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND BY AFTERNOON ONLY A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST SHOULD REMAIN. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 5-7 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW
WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AS SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...MUCCILLI


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