Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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