Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 300543
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper-level low pressure system centered across
northern Ontario will remain as the controlling weather system
across the North Country over the next several days. Scattered
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected across
the area today, and again Wednesday afternoon. Drier air
filtering in from the west Wednesday night should result in
generally precipitation free conditions for Thursday. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below seasonal levels through the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 133 AM EDT Tuesday...Low stratus remain in place from the
Adirondacks ewd across the central/srn Champlain Valley and all
of central/s-central/ern VT. Will continue to see some patchy
dense fog in the Adirondacks and east of the Greens through the
pre-dawn hrs. Shouldn`t see any fog in the Champlain Valley,
with southerly gradient flow and channeling effects keeping PBL
well-mixed locally (including gusts to 25 mph early this
morning). Early AM lows expected to range from the low-mid 50s
in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, to the mid 40s across
the nrn Adirondacks and ern VT.

Convective threat will exist over the area on Tuesday...but
parameters not really coming together for more organized
convection. There may be some showers over northern New York in
the morning...which may affect the development of instability in
this area...but deep layer shear will be increasing over this
area. Thus instability gradient likely to form more over Vermont
where deep layer shear will be weaker. Nevertheless...looking
at increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon...especially from the Champlain Valley eastward.
Highs will generally be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EDT Monday...For the first half of Tuesday night
we`ll likely still be dealing with some scattered convection
across eastern portions of the forecast area, but as instability
lessens with the loss of insolational heating and shortwave
energy aloft shifts east, the trend will be towards a quieter
overnight. Despite some clearing and whatever rainfall we get
Tuesday, the low-level flow overnight should be strong enough to
preclude any widespread fog development though can`t rule it
out in the deeper hollows that typically decouple no matter what
the flow is. Lows will be mild ranging through the 50s.

Another round of convection is expected Wednesday as well, with most
likely more areal coverage than Tuesday. SBCAPE`s are in the 500-
1000 J/kg range, but as the activity initiates over the Adirondacks
around the noon hours, the best deep layer shear is exiting to our
east. So while I`ve highlighted fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms, none are anticipated to become severe but could
produce some 30+ mph winds with some locally moderate rainfall
through the evening hours before activity subsides. Temps Wednesday
and Wednesday night should be right around normal with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Monday...Really no change from the previous
forecast thinking as the pattern for the extended period hasn`t
changed in days, largely controlled dominated by an upper level
low that is blocked by a strong northern Atlantic low pressure
system. While every day has a chance for showers, the best
chance looks to be Friday, with potentially drier conditions for
the weekend, but timing individual shortwaves rounding the base
of the trough to our north is very difficult so many days out.
Temps through the period should be very seasonal with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday....Highly variable aviation weather
conditions expected across the area over the next 24 hours. Pre-
dawn conditions include MVFR ceilings at BTV/RUT owing to
stratus layer, VFR conditions at PBG/MSS with just passing mid-
level clouds, and IFR conditions at SLK/MPV owing to a
combination of fog and very low stratus conditions. HIR TRRN
OBSCD generally through 15-16Z this morning, and may remain
OBSCD thru most of the daylight hrs across central and ern VT.
May see MVFR ceilings hold in across much of central/ern VT
during the daylight hrs, with better chances for VFR conditions
developing from the Champlain Valley wwd. Should see a broken
line of showers and a few embedded tstms develop across nrn NY
late this morning, with activity shifting ewd across Vermont
this afternoon. Best chances for tstms at the TAF locations will
be at SLK/RUT, with more stable low-level conditions due to
cloud cover expected to the north and east. Winds will be gusty
at times from the south. At BTV, should see south winds 15-20kts
with gusts up to 25kt thru 21z today. Should see redevelopment
of low stratus tonight, with periods of MVFR ceilings and
localized IFR once again at SLK/MPV. Winds tonight generally
remain out of the south at 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds 15-25kts
early this morning, increasing to 20-30 kts late this morning
through this afternoon. Should see waves build to 3-5 feet,
highest across the northern portion of the broad lake to near
the south facing shores of Grand Isle. Should see winds remain
from the south 15-25 kts tonight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Evenson



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