Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR
SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS
THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING
A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING
SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED
WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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