Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 171735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG







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