Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 190552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1221 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1230
UPDATE. PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP
QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE
ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME
PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



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