Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 180238
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1038 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS MOISTURE
STARVED SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 00Z BUF SOUNDINGS SHOWS A NICELY ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER WITH A
SHARP INVERSION ABOVE 700 FEET AGL. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP A
TIGHT CAP ON THE MARINE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES...AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NAM/SREF/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PICK UP ON THIS INVERSION
NICELY...AND SHOW SUPPORT FOR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ADVECTING INLAND. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL GIVE THE FORCING NEEDED TO FINALLY BREAK THIS UP
THIS MARINE LAYER AND SCOUR OUT ANY FOG THAT REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT...THE HRRR PICKS UP NICELY ON A PERIOD OF CLEARING FOR
BUFFALO THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADVECTING FOG DOWN THE LAKE AND INTO
THE BUFFALO/NIAGARA FALLS AREAS ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL FINISH THE CLEARING PROCESS
TONIGHT AND SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON SATURDAY A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL CROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING. DESPITE THE STRONG
ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH
LITTLE EVEN IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. THE REST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEEP
MIXING AND SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH COUNTRY. GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO SHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...THESE CLOUDS
ARE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE CONNECTED TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING.

GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
REACHES WESTERN NEW YORK. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A 65 TO
70 KNOT LLJ CENTERED NEAR 850 TO 900 HPA WILL BRING LIFT ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN FALL UPON THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE...WHERE A SE LLJ ALOFT BRINGS SURFACE GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ALONG THE SHORELINE. AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIMITED SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAINFREE CONDITIONS.
WITH THE LLJ STILL OVERHEAD...ANY SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE THE MIXING
HEIGHTS SUCH THAT WE COULD TAP INTO THIS LLJ...WITH WIND GUSTS
MONDAY ALSO 30 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST...AND A
DECREASE IN THE GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS
CENTRAL LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL NEAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL VALUES MAY RANGE GREATER WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAN
THE EARLIER WARM FRONT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WITH
THE OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...EVEN THROUGH THERE
IS SOME SKINNY MID LEVEL CAPE.

THE WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY WHEN BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO +7 TO +10C. THESE READINGS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON A SOUTHEAST WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN THIS TIME PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE
NAO ALLOWS FOR A UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW TO STALL OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. UNDER THIS LOW PRESSURE
EXPECT CLOUDY DAYS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH FEW SHOWERS TO BE FOUND BY NIGHT. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN AT NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF FOG INTO THE KBUF/KIAG/KART
TERMINALS...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE INLAND EXTENT OF THIS
FOG TO THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

ON SATURDAY A MOISTURE STARVED SHARP MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBY WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH THIS GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA JUST EXPECT A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVES IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON
LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE 20-25 KNOTS SUSTAINED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
QUEBEC. A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER
LAKES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. RH WILL ALSO DROP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL WARMING AND DRY ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WIND AND RH WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER THE BULK OF
THE AREA HAD A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. THE RECENT
RAINFALL MAKES FINE FUELS WETTER...AND TAKES OUR REGION OUT OF RED
FLAG CRITERIA. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH RECEIVED LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS
IS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS HAS JUST MELTED IN THE PAST
DAY OR TWO...SO FINE FUELS ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY
STILL TOO WET TO JUSTIFY ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK







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