Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG ERODING
BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/WRF/SSEO ALL
SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY IN THE FORM OF WEAK SBCAPE. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM PER THIS GUIDANCE SO HAVE CONTINUED A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OTHERWISE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING 16-17C
WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECTING PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SUMMER HEAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS
PROMINENT SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY
BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +20C...YIELDING HIGHS THAT WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER WITH MOST AREAS APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK WHILE ALONG
THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE
WILL CROSS INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE FOUND IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE READINGS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL ADD
MUGGINESS TO THE HEAT AS WELL...PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS
POINT IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THEY WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO HOT DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NIGHTS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY AREAS
MAY NOT DROP BELOW 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND
WARM AIR POOLS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION THURSDAY AND NOMINALLY COOLER BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER
AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT
THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE MAY
BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD IT CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING IT MAY HAVE A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY COOLER READINGS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE
LAKESHORES TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY IN SPITE OF THE PRESENCE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. INSTEAD LOOK FOR
SUNSHINE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A RELATIVELY PLEASANT UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT`S READINGS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKES ONCE AGAIN.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER HUDSON BAY.
THE TIMING OF ANY ONE OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA IS DICEY THIS FAR
OUT...BUT FOR TIME BEING WILL GO WITH BROADBRUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH CONVECTION AT LEAST BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE AWASH IN A MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PREVAILING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS AS WELL AS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOCALIZED FOG IS BRINING MVFR/IFR
VSBYS/CIGS NEAR 12Z WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY 13-14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW ALL FOG TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF KART WITH DEVELOPING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN PROMOTING SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



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