Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 281131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...BEFORE ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MICHIGAN
STRAITS...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEASTWARD TO LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS HAVING RETURNED TO ALL AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY...
BEFORE MOVING FURTHER ON INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC DURING THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LOW WILL FINISH PUSHING
ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WITH OUR REGION THEN ENJOYING A BRIEF STINT WITHIN
ITS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PLOWS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING RISK
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERABLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...WHEN A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HELP TO GENERATE A BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH A
45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY COMING INTO
PLAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND WINDS GIVEN
THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR THESE WILL
COME ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WHERE THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL TO BORDERLINE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

BY FAR THOUGH...THE BIGGEST STORY OF ALL TODAY WILL BE THE NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE SHOULD BE A 4-6
HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS SOARING TO +15C TO +19C ON A
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE STRONG LOW
LEVEL MIXING...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE GENESEE VALLEY
LIKELY GETTING AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S WITH THIS LATTER AREA
EXPERIENCING THE WARMEST OVERALL AIR AND NO MITIGATING EFFECTS FROM
THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THE "COOLEST" AREAS WILL BE THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AS WELL AS NIAGARA COUNTY/FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE COOLING WILL COME
INTO PLAY. EVEN IN THESE LATTER AREAS THOUGH...READINGS WILL STILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

IN TERMS OF RECORDS...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE 74
AT BUFFALO (1946)...76 AT ROCHESTER (1984)...AND 75 AT WATERTOWN
(1984)...WITH THE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY ROCHESTER
APPEARING TO BE MOST IN JEOPARDY.

COUPLED WITH TODAY`S UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS
INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
DRY SLOTTING...SUBSIDENCE...AND GOOD COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THIS THEN GENERALLY CONTINUING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE THE OVERALL COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY BE GREATLY HINDERED BY FAIRLY LIMITED/
SHALLOW LEFTOVER MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST INDICATE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OTHERWISE
DRYING OUT WITH TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL LARGELY FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE SPENT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
THE FIRST POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE NO MEANS BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THOUGH...AS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. LOOKING AT
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS NOT HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY.
FORTUNATELY...THE VARIOUS PACKAGES SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION...FINALLY.

AN INDISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES (70N) OF THE
YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS FORECAST TO VIGOROUSLY DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA...CARVING OUT A SHARP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS. THIS
FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TWO FACTORS THOUGH. ONE BEING THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS DIFFICULT AT BEST
TO DEPICT IN WV IMAGERY...AND THE OTHER IS THE HANDLING OF AN
ALASKAN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT
IS THIS SECOND FEATURE THAT WILL HELP TO PUMP UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES...THEREBY OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD IN THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM
HGT FIELD.

WHEN THIS IS ALL SAID AND DONE...A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME GREATLY EXAGGERATED WITH TWO DEEP
TROUGHS...ONE ON EACH COAST. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS FAIRLY
COMMON...AND LUCKILY FOR US...PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THIS MEANS THAT
JUST AS SURE AS WE WILL GET A SHOT OF WINTRY AIR...IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH AN EQUALLY ANOMALOUS WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW.

AS FOR THE MORE SUBTLE DETAILS...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS RIDGING...ALONG
WITH A LACK OF MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...SHOULD COUNTER-BALANCE
THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -2C WILL POUR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER OUR REGION...
ONLY NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WINDY AND NOTABLY COOLER WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A SOLID 20 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE A CYCLONIC FLOW OF CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE LATTER WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN PLACE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WITHOUT MUCH MID LEVEL
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE THE
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE
MERCURY ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 (MID 40S ELEVATIONS).

THE ONCE INNOCUOUS SHORTWAVE FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL HAVE
BECOME QUITE ROBUST IN ITS JOURNEY SOUTHWARDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS
INTENSITY WILL BE SUCH THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS THE 1.5PV SFC TO NEARLY
800MB AS IT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SPIN
UP A SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE HURON...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE WITHIN
THIS AIRMASS BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT
SFC LOW WILL TAKE THE UNUSUAL TRACK FROM LK HURON TO NORTHWEST PA.
SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS AND LIFT PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF A 120KT H25 JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD COMBINE WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WHICH DURING
THE MORNING COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW.

AS THE VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO
VIRGINA FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE INTI AL SFC LOW WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FEED OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME WET SNOW OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE
TREND TOWARDS MODIFICATION. A PROGRESSIVE...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AS WE OPEN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES REMAIN AT ODDS OVER
THE STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION WOULD BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
THAT WOULD REMAIN OVER NEW YORK. BOTH WOULD COME INTO PLAY WITH
DETERMINING HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT WE WOULD RECEIVE FROM THE ENSUING
NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -8C...IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT WOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 SO IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BRISTOL HILLS.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER WINDS
UP OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER ALL OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST LIKELY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SAT
NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 FOR MOST SITES.

THE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY WHILE STRONG RIDGING WILL EASE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER AIR (AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS) IS
EXPECTED TO POUR ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE THE LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH TO WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
H85 TEMPS FORCEAST TO REBOUND TO ARND 4C BY DAYS END. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS 50 F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO RECEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AND TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER TIME. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS
AND IN THE VFR RANGE...WITH JUST SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
FOUND TO ITS SOUTH.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TO DOMINATE FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME HEATING
HELPS TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THIS STATED...ANY STORM OR
STRONGER SHOWER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR MOST PLACES AS STRONG DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

OTHERWISE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESHENING SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WITH WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING RATHER
BRISK IN NATURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.