Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 282030
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into Eastern New York this evening. Behind
the front, there will be a chance of showers across the North
Country on Wednesday. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions
will be found through the middle of the week. A return to warmer
weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY, while most of the convection is along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary. This will leave all of western NY
except the St Lawrence valley free of convection for the evening.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the
cooler temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler
drier air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat will stay
east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAM/SMITH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH


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