Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS


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