Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 242049
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING KROC BETWEEN 21 TO 23Z AND KART BETWEEN 23
AND 01Z. EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KCLE...WHERE THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE COMBING TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE OF OHIO. THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEHIND THE LINE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE INCREASING NICELY
ACCORDING THE BUFFALO RADAR...WITH 60+ KNOTS LOCATED ABOUT 800 FEET
OFF THE SURFACE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS
PREVENTING THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST WITH IN THE SHOWERS IS NOT OUT
THE QUESTION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME MUCH STEEPER AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL AID IN PUSHING THESE HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS
TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AS WE PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO
LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...IMPACTING KBUF/KIAG NOW...EXPECTED NEAR KROC BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z...AND NEAR KART BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL REDUCED CIGS/VIS TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 21Z.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 50KTS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60KTS NO OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD







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