Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201424
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A GOOD NUMBER OF RETURNS CROSSING WESTERN NY
AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER AN EXAMINATION OF SURFACE
OBS SHOW LITTLE OF THIS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. CASE IN
POINT...KERI HAD AN AREA OF 30 DBZ ALOFT CROSS OVER THE PAST HOUR
YET FAILED TO MEASURE ANY PRECIP. 12Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 875MB-700MB WHICH IS PRODUCING PLENTY
OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ARRIVE IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THIS DRY
LAYER COMPLETELY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO JUST SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW MEASURING
SHOWERS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 50 ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING BUT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




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