Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THIS STATED...IT WILL STILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR







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