Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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045
FXUS61 KBUF 262324
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
724 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and Monday
which will bring some showers and a few thunderstorms. A secondary
cold front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and
much cooler temperatures for mid-week. Temperatures will rebound
late in the week as high pressure moves across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front will approach the region tonight, but the bulk of
the precipitation tonight will probably come from a mid-level wave
which is forecast to move out ahead of the surface front.
Convection with this can be seen on radar across southern Ontario
into western Ohio. Model guidance is good agreement that this
convection will continue to develop through this evening. The big
forecast question is how well will this hold together as this
700-500mb wave of moisture from this convection moves eastward
into our area late tonight. Guidance remains at odds with this,
but the trend among 18Z guidance seems hold this together longer
than previous guidance, and there is an overall increase on
consensus QPF. This said, there is still uncertainty due to the
convective nature of this and it is important to note that QPFs
can be misleading due to the very moist airmass with PWATs over 2
inches. Taking these factors into consideration, will carry a mix
of likely and high chance POPS with consensus suggesting the best
opportunity for precipitation will be across the Western Southern
Tier. Also, while not all locations will see rain tonight showers
which do make it could be quite heavy. Elevated instability on
BUFKIT suggests that some thunderstorms are possible in heavier
showers. This will continue to be monitored as upstream convection
develops.

Otherwise, tonight will be a warm night with cloud cover and wind
limiting radiational cooling. Lows will range from the mid 60s
inland to lower to mid 70s across the lake plains.

What is left of the front will move across late tonight into
Monday, providing an opportunity for showers at it moves through.
Expect any showers to be scattered in nature Monday morning,
lacking the benefit of any diurnal instability. There may be some
diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms southeast of Lake
Ontario on Monday afternoon. Also, air behind the boundary is
only marginally colder with 850 mb temperatures still +17C behind
the subtle boundary. Drying behind the mid-level wave should allow
skies to clear in Western areas where highs should again rise into
the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move from the upper Great Lakes region
toward the Northeast US Monday night through Tuesday. Underneath
this trough, there will be a few weak surface boundaries that will
move through Western NY.  The first will likely come through dry
Monday night due to the shallow nature of the front together with
nocturnal timing. The second boundary will be later on Tuesday. With
daytime heating together with surface lake breeze boundaries
(northwest flow/well inland), there will be a chance for some inland
convection. 850mb temperatures will drop to about 7-9C on a
northwest flow overhead. With a well mixed boundary layer, this
should result in highs mostly in the 70s.  An inland cumulus field
is also expected during the afternoon which should help to keep
temperatures down.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...High pressure will continue
move from the northern Plains states southeast toward the Ohio
valley.  Cold advection will no longer be taking place, but with
cool air overhead, clearing skies, and light winds, both Tuesday
night and Wednesday night lows should end up in the 50s most areas
but in the 40s in sheltered locations.  Highs Wednesday may end up a
touch warmer than on Tuesday with more sunshine.  There may still be
some afternoon inland cumulus, but it should be less extensive than
on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A long wave trough of low pressure will linger over the region
through much of this period. This will exclude the area from lengthy
stretches of heat, though much of this period will remain dry and
sunny.

Surface high pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes region will bring
a sunny day Thursday with temperatures near normal. Friday the 12Z
Global Models continue the trend that began with the 00z runs of
bringing a cold front across the Eastern Great Lakes region Friday.
Limited moisture along this front will warrant just low chance Pops
for now, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours of Friday
when additional daytime instability may bring a few thunderstorms as
well.

The front will clear the region of moisture for the start of the
weekend. The 850 hPa temperatures will be dropping down into the
upper single digits behind the front which will yield afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 70s for the start of the holiday weekend.
Abundant sunshine and dry weather looks to persist right through the
4th of July holiday weekend. With low moisture, dewpoints shall be
tolerable for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid-level wave is forecast to move across the area in advance of a
cold front which will cross late tonight and into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms to the west will gradually weaken as they
move into Western New York. It is uncertain how well these storms
will hold together, but most guidance suggest the line will be much
weaker with just showers and possibly a thunderstorm as it moves
through late tonight. Because the lift is from the mid-levels cloud
bases should be well in the VFR category until after the frontal
passage later tonight. This may result in a brief period of MVFR
cigs across the Southern Tier Monday morning, but drier air should
move in behind the front with increasing confidence in VFR
conditions by mid-day Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide fine boating conditions through this
evening, with lake breeze dominated winds generally 10 knots or
less.

A cold front will cross the region tonight into Monday morning with
a secondary cold front passage Tuesday. Winds will increase to 10 to
15 knots with some gusts 20 to 25 knots behind these frontal
passages. Waters will become more choppy, with waves approaching
Small Craft Advisory conditions, but likely falling just short. A
few thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL



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