Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 272003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR ACCOMPANYING HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN
AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD
ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WARM...BUT MAINLY DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A COOL DRY
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE
MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY
LARGELY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT STEEPEN...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS ANY TRIGGERS WILL BE LARGELY MESOSCALE IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL FALL ON SUNDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TRACKS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TIED TO A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A MORE EXTENSIVE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS MAKING IT FEEL QUITE HUMID. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REINTRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS FROM THIS MORNING ARE THINNING AND GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR AT
KROC...BUT THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME UPSLOPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE ESCARPMENTS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD TEMPS ALOFT WILL BECOME JUST COOL ENOUGH ON A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS VERY
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR
WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM/WCH
MARINE...JM






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