Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 030240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES
WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.