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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240719
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.

AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A FREEZE
IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.

AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.

BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP