Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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874
FXUS61 KBUF 290530
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
130 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Upper Mid West will promote fair dry
weather across the bulk of the region today...with only a minimal
chance for a shower east of Lake Ontario. As the high pressure
drifts east tonight and Thursday...we can look forward to more nice
weather with temperatures returning to the 80s By Thursday
afternoon. The next cold front could produce some rain showers over
the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A robust shortwave centered over eastern Lake Erie at 05z will
slowly move across our forecast area during the remaining overnight
hours. This feature will combine with some residual outflow
boundaries from earlier in the night to generate scattered showers
across parts of the region. While the showers will be slow moving...
a subtle cap around 9k ft and PWAT values no higher than an inch
will help to limit rainfall amounts for any given area. Most areas
that pick up one of these showers can expect less than a tenth of an
inch...although as much as a half inch of rain will be possible from
southern Orleans County into western Monroe County before 07z.

On Wednesday...the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of showers east of Lake
Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas with cooler
air aloft promoting plenty of afternoon cumulus. Drier air arriving
with incoming high pressure should bring more in the way of sunshine
later in the afternoon. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain
very comfortable with highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations
and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While VFR conditions will be found across the region overnight...
scattered light showers may be accompanied by MVFR cigs. This will
mainly be the case for sites such as KBUF and KJHW...where the
latter could experience some IFR cigs as well.

As an upper level trough push east on Wednesday...VFR conditions
will return to all areas. While dry weather is forecast for the
western counties of the state...a shower or two will be possible for
sites such as KART and KGTB.

VFR conditions will be in place for Wednesday night.

Outlook...
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively weak sfc pressure gradient will be in place across the
Lower Great Lakes overnight...and this will keep winds and waves
well below small craft advisory criteria.

For Wednesday and Thursday...high pressure over the Upper Mid West
will gradually push east across the region. This will keep
relatively light winds and negligible waves intact with generally
fine recreational boating conditions expected.

A cold front is forecast to cross the Lower Great Lakes on Friday.
While winds and waves are not expected to significantly increase...
there will be the added risk for thunderstorms.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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