Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Strong high pressure will allow dry and very warm weather to
continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A
cold front will finally bring a chance of showers by Wednesday night
and Thursday, followed by much cooler air to end next week.


Fog has dissipated this morning, with high pressure producing yet
another virtually cloudless day across the forecast area. A weak
upper level disturbance skirting the top of the ridge may produce a
few mid-level clouds across portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, but on the whole it should be another sunny day. Abundant
sunshine, dry soils, and 850mb temps running around +18C will yield
highs in the mid 80s across many of the valleys and lake plains,
with lower 80s across the higher terrain.

Tonight high pressure remains over the area with mainly clear skies.
Fog may be a little more extensive tonight than last night as
surface dewpoints move higher. Expect patchy fog in many rural areas
overnight, with better fog coverage in the typical river valleys of
the western Southern Tier. Temperatures will be milder than recent
nights with the higher dewpoints. Expect lows in the mid 60s on the
lake plains and upper 50s to lower 60s for the interior Southern
Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

An anomalous 590 dm upper high will be centered across the region
Sunday night with 850mb temps reaching up to +20C. Expect this
to bring very warm to hot temps for this time of year along with
a steamy airmass. Highs are forecast in the mid to upper 80s
with 90 not out of the question. It does look as if some daily
high temperature records may be challenged at Buffalo and
Rochester. Buffalo`s record high for Sunday is 88 while
Rochester`s records high is 90. Buffalo looks to stand a
slightly better chance at breaking a daily record high


An anomalous 590 dm upper high will remain centered across the
region Sunday night. Through Monday and Tuesday, the center of
this high will shift off the East Coast although strong ridging
of 587dm-588dm will remain across our region. A strong mid-level
low is forecast to lift out of the West Coast trough to the
North Plains region reaming to our west until the second half of
the week. At the surface, Hurricane Maria is forecast to be off
the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday night without any impacts
locally. High pressure ridged across western and north-central
New York will maintain dry and fair weather ahead of an
approaching cold front near the Central Great Lakes.

This weather pattern will maintain mid-summer warmth across western
and north central New York through midweek with dry conditions
remaining through at least Tuesday night. Skies will be clear
outside of periodic thin high cloud cover and patchy morning stratus.
850 mb temperatures underneath the ridge will run between +18C and
+20C Monday then cooling some to around +17C by Tuesday. This
supports highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Monday and only a
degree or two cooler on Tuesday. The warmest readings are expected
across inland areas away from local lake breeze circulations. It
also remain very humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This
will make it feel uncomfortably hot, despite the calender date with
Heat Index values pushing into the 90s if not the air temperatures.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged again Monday, particularly at Buffalo and Rochester.
Buffalo`s record high for Monday is 87, while Rochester`s record
high is 92. Buffalo stands the best chance at breaking a daily
record high temperature with a forecast of 89/90 degrees. Ironically
Buffalo made it the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree
mark, but now that we are officially in Autumn, Buffalo may make a
run at the 90 degree mark.

Nighttime low temperatures will be on the uncomfortable side due to
the high dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The
humid airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also
result in areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys.


A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of
next week going into the beginning of October. Global models are in
good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will
make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door
for troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast,
as we have seen for much of the summer.

The ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper
Great Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain
well above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still
about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but QPF is minimal with
scattered showers and possible a thunderstorm. The 00Z ECMWF is
faster than GFS/GGEM guidance, with consensus timing in the late
Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. Despite much cooler air
expected to spill across the region in the wake of the cold front
passage, this airmass change will only get us back down to near more
seasonal values by late week, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s

A shortwave will dive across the Lower Great Lakes Friday, with
another shot of cooler air. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid
60s. The air aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement,
with a chance of showers on Friday with the shortwave.


High pressure overhead will yield another day of widespread VFR
conditions. Southern Tier river valley fog will develop again
tonight, with patchy fog elsewhere bringing local IFR. The fog may
be a little more extensive than the past few nights as surface
dewpoints begin to rise.


Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.
Wednesday...chance of showers and thunderstorms with mainly VFR.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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