Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 081742
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1242 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A
WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE
WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SEEN TO
OUR WEST. OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS REGION ARE SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES PEAKING
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. AS THIS AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST...THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH
WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO ONCE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION
WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OPEN UP
INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING
WEAK ASCENT.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD
AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN
INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY COLDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER
20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY
MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS
MAY REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR
THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER
TOTALS FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85
TEMPS IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST
EVENING...AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES
SOUTHWARDS...THE COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER
FROZEN HUDSON BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA /CHAUTAUQUA CO/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN
AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SETTLING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH


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