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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191516
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1116 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front lingering just to our west will bring clouds and a low
chance for an isolated shower this afternoon across the Niagara
Frontier, with sunny skies elsewhere. Otherwise another dry and very
warm day is in store with temperatures rising some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week and next weekend. A few record
highs may be challenged late this week and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid/high clouds continue to linger across far western New York in
association with a stalled frontal boundary to our west across
Ontario province. Elsewhere though, sunshine abounds thanks to upper
level ridging and subsidence associated with Jose, spinning off the
Eastern Seaboard. Guidance indicates that we may see just enough low-
level warming to overcome the mid-level cap this afternoon in the
Niagara Frontier, and with that in mind have left in a slight chance
of showers there. Elsewhere though, expect large scale subsidence to
yield more warm and dry weather. Temperatures at 850 hPa will be a
degree cooler today and this will hold back highs a degree or two
cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s
today. Additionally, clouds across far western NY will also hold
back temperatures...with more 70s found than lower 80s.

Tonight strong ridging will grip the region, with clear to partly
cloudy skies and temperatures dropping down into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. The clear skies and light winds...and the still moisture
boundary layer will yield conditions ripe for valley fog formation
across the So. Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While all eyes will be focused on the tropics during the period,
western and north central New York will be enjoying fair weather
along with summertime warmth.

A broad surface high pressure system situated over the eastern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and an expansive upper-level ridge
will support the dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the
region. 850 mb temperatures averaging 14-16C along with ample
sunshine will help support daytime highs in the upper 70s to
lower/mid 80s. Enjoy!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
more fair weather during this period...along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late July-
early August).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame...with 590dm heights over the Lower
Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values.
The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day...with H85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon max temps in the mid 80s.
The warmer valleys will likely experience highs in the upper 80s.
These temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile at night...mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low stratus and fog across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes this
morning have mixed out, and VFR conditions predominate across the
region at this time, with clear skies across the eastern 2/3 of the
forecast area, and high clouds to the west in association with a
stalled frontal boundary over Ontario province. There is a
slight chance of a pop-up shower over the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon, but otherwise dry conditions will persist through the
rest of the forecast period. Clearing skies tonight will allow
for the formation of valley fog after 06Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Local IFR conditions each late night and early morning with Southern
Tier valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and next
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS