Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271948
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm through Tuesday. Then
surface high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Visible satellite shows generally mostly sunny skies west of the
Eastern Lake Ontario region in the wake of the pre-frontal trough.
Expect this continue to be the case the rest of today with
clearing expected in the next hour or two east of lake Ontario.
Temperature wise, readings will top out in the 80s to near 90F
with elevated humidity making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though,
as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s
for most areas. Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and
away from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a
Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms further to the east of
lake Ontario but it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to
suppress thunderstorm development in this area. Highs on Wednesday
will be much cooler and comfortable with 70s expected across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level cloudiness has dissipated at KBUF allowing for VFR the rest
of today. Elsewhere, VFR will continue at KJHW and KROC with MVFR
expected at KART through 19Z as the low cloudiness there slowly
exits to the east and northeast with improving conditions.

Tonight, a cold front will move across the forecast area which will
bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with any
showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions
with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN



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