Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A THIN DECK OF CIRRUS IS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS CIRRUS HAS LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH SUCH
THAT FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS DIMINISHED. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ALSO SOME FOG SE AND E OF LAKE ONTARIO LINGERS...BUT
THIS TOO SHOULD END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PROVIDED
PLEASANT...SUNNY WEATHER IN RECENT DAYS WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM THE CORN BELT STATES.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTAINS LITTLE MOISTURE AND THERE WILL REMAIN SOME RESEMBLANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS THE REGION A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MIX WITH THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD. STILL A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND REMAINING QUIET OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT REACHING THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL JUST
SIGNIFY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 14C TODAY WHICH
WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND DRY GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN WILL AIM FOR JUST ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BACK OFF TO AROUND THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER FOR
THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN. TWO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WEAKER OF THE TWO CROSSING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE ON TUESDAY.

MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR AREA DRY ON MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
SOME SREF MEMBERS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...SUSPECT THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE HAD. BASED ON THIS WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXITING FROM W-E DURING
THE DAY AND A FEW DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 00Z NAM/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE FORECASTING A WEAK CLOSED 500
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ERIE 00Z WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THIS
WILL ONLY BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE LOW WILL SET UP A
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
ROUGHLY FROM SYR-ELZ. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT SREF/GGEM GUIDANCE FOCUS QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SUSPECT
THIS FORECAST MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT CONSENSUS IS TOO STRONG TO IGNORE SO WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND FOCUSED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW EXITS INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE COOLER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A WEAK CLOSED
LOW NEAR CAPE COD. SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDING SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BUT STILL SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT +11C ACROSS
OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SEEING
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION IN QUITE SOME
TIME. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A TAD FASTER...BUT CONTINUE
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A
WARM DAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THOSE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH CONSENSUS
TIMING BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL DROP SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME PATCHES OF FOG SE AND E OF
LAKE ONTARIO. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBYS TO MVFR...OR SOUTHERN TIER
IFR...COULD HAPPEN AT ANY SITE JUST PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AGAIN SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST VSBY LIMITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF CLOUDS ARE
THICK ENOUGH AGAIN TONIGHT FROM AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE FOG
FORMATION MAY BE LIMITED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BRING WINDS AND WAVES TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS






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