Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
819 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. MONDAY
WILL BE DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DISPLAYS A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTWARD NEARING THE LAKE
ONTARIO EASTERN SHORELINE. THE BETTER INSTABILITY THIS EARLY EVENING
WAS FOUND FROM ABOUT THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
SOUTHWARD...AND WITH THE SETTING SUN DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FURTHER
BUILD UP TO THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND WILL LEAVE
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
COVERAGE AREAS OF ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

A WARM/MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SSW BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FIRST
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND +15C HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES NEARING OR
EVEN BETTERING 1000 J/KG BY LATER IN THE DAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG ANY LAKE
BREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED JUST
WEST OF NEW YORK STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...THE
NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...LOWER CHANCE POPS BY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SBCAPES
OVER 1000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -4C ALSO POINT TO POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS. THE RISK OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT WITH
ONLY LOWER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
THE  OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BRING LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING HOURS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE LINGERING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT THE CLOSE
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS WE HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD OR THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT. WAVES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AROUND A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AS WAVES BUILD
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINE FOR LAKE ERIE...BUT HELD OFF ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR
NOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL






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