Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191114
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
614 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST OF TWO STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS WILL COME TO AN END
TODAY AS THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BACK THE WINDS WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. FOLLOWING THIS...YET ANOTHER STRONG LAKE
EFFECT EVENT WILL ORGANIZE EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING TO THE
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. A CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD AND DISRUPT THEM TODAY. THIS CHANGE
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BACK THE STEERING LEVEL WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. NOW FOR THE FINER DETAILS...

OFF ERIE...AT 09Z THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 10
MILES WIDE EXTENDS FROM THE LAKE ACROSS CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY. THE
PAST FEW RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE IS NOW RIGHT AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT.
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR BUT IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT LOCALIZED 2IN/HR RATES ARE PRESENT. AS THE BAND SHIFTS
NORTH IT WILL LIFT ACROSS METRO BUFFALO THEN THE NORTHTOWNS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THEN UNDER A 200 FLOW THE BAND WILL FOCUS ACROSS
GRAND ISLAND AND NIAGARA COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. THE BAND SHOULD STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH NOT STALLING ACROSS THE NEARLY SNOW-VACANT METRO BUFFALO AND
NORTHTOWNS BUT IN ITS PASSAGE WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE BAND LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS
METRO BUFFALO NEAR THE MORNING RUSH THAT WOULD BRING SOME TRAVEL
ISSUES.

OFF ONTARIO...KTYX RADAR SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT REFLECTIVITY
PATTERN IN THE SNOW BAND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A WIDER BAND /20 MILES/ OF SNOW EXTENDS
FROM PULASKI TO HIGHMARKET ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH A SECONDARY
NORTHERN BAND FROM ABOUT WATERTOWN EAST TO OLD FORGE. RADAR
ESTIMATED SNOWFALL RATES ARE 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR BUT AGAIN IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT LOCALIZED HIGHER RATES ARE PRESENT. EXPECTING
THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
INDICATED THE CORE OF THE BAND WILL SHIFT ACROSS WATERTOWN NEAR
MIDDAY THEN SHIFT OVER THE THOUSAND ISLANDS AND BE FOCUSED DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHER RATES HERE
AND LONGER TIME BEFORE WE SEE A SHIFT EXPECT A FOOT OR MORE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS THE TUG POSSIBLE THEN SEVERAL FRESH INCHES IN
AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BAND TO THE NORTH. REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM EAST OF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE
81.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S AND WIND CHILLS MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE TEENS TO
EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS ALREADY HARD
HIT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...

ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH ARCTIC AIR WILL REINVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALREADY
HARD HIT FROM THE RECENT LAKE SNOW EVENT.

OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXTREME...AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR -14C CREATING DELTA T/S AT OR ABOVE 20C.
LAKE INDUCED CAPES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN TOPPING 15K FEET. THESE PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE MORE EXTREME OFF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

WITH THE LATEST PROFILES SHOWING OMEGA MAXIMIZED ONCE AGAIN IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

WE ENVISION THAT FRESH AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD NEAR OR EXCEED TWO FEET EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH THE MAIN
FOCAL AREA ONCE AGAIN POINTED RIGHT AT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS ON A
PROLONGED 250-260 FLOW.

SINCE LAKE PARAMETERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR TO BE A BIT MORE
EXTREME...WE EXPECT HIGHER ADDITIONAL TOTALS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE TUG HILL REGION LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR EVEN
EXCEED THREE FEET.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER. IT WILL BE QUITE
WINDY AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER BANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY AGAIN REACH 3 PLUS INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MORE
INTENSE BANDS.

THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MAJOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS IN THE
BUFFALO AREA AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN WITH MAJOR ROAD CLOSURES
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...GIVING WITH THOSE AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE TIME
TO CLEAN UP BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALMOST
LITERALLY PUT A DAMPER ON THINGS.

BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...A SYSTEM OVER TX WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...PLACING WESTERN NY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM.  AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY...A SLUG OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME WILL LIKELY
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OBVIOUS CONCERNS FROM
LOCALIZED SNOWMELT FROM THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL BUT SHORTER DURATION
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE
LAKE ERIE BAND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH AS OF 09Z AND WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR VIS AND
A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING ITS PASSAGE. THE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND IS LARGELY SOUTH OF KART BUT SOME STREAMERS MAY
OCCASIONALLY BRING REDUCED VIS TO KART. LATER TODAY THIS BAND WILL
ALSO LIFT NORTH CROSSING THE KART TERMINAL WITH REDUCED VIS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. KROC AND KJHW SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER THIS
EVENING AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL VLIFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL IFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALES WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE OUT ON ALL
LAKE NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME BUT ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE EAST
ENDS OF THE LAKE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE WINDS AND
WAVES LOOK TO RELAX ENOUGH TO END ADVISORIES BY THE AFTERNOON. LAKE
SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKES LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORES LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




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