Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261522
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A BRISK COOL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOUND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...OUR
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. IN FACT...RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
CIRCULATE MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY...AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO C. THIS WILL
ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE WARMER LAKES TO PROMPT A
MINIMAL RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE.

A VERY ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY
VIA THE ADIRONDACKS PRODUCED A COUPLE HOURS OF STEADY RAIN FOR THAT
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT NOW THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE
REPLACED BY MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL TODAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...PARTIALLY LAKE ENHANCED WITHIN THE CHILLY CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. IN REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT OFF LK ERIE...THE AIRMASS ABV
5K FT WILL BE JUST TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SPRINKLES...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT OR BELOW SLGT CHC.

THE LAKE ENHANCED SKY COVER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER DAY OF
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG
AS THOSE FROM YESTERDAY (SAT). THE RELATIVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL PRODUCE WEST WINDS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SUBSIDE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTION AND REMOVAL OF A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE SOME CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...THE LAKE INDUCED
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE ONCE SUPPORTIVE CAP TO 10K FT WILL DROP
TO UNDER 5K FT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S UNDER THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN THE
CHILLIER SRN TIER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THESE TEMPS WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
INCREASING DRYING/SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD BRING A RATHER
QUICK END TO ANY LINGERING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TIME AS A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATION OF OUR
AIRMASS BOTH EXPECTED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE READINGS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...LINGERING COOLER AIR SHOULD HELP CONFINE HIGHS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMS.

DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE PUSHING ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE PROCESS.
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND DEVELOPING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME AND INCREASED
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL TEND TO OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN
THOSE OF THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE.

AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
LIFTS TOWARD THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS SHOULD LEAVE WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ENTIRELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THUS
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONT STILL REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT SUBTLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...A GENERAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER OVERALL SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE
LIKELY TAKING PLACE BETWEEN LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS PARTICULAR TIME FRAME...THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN
NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND THE SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL OF
STRONG DRY SLOTTING ALOFT...EXPECT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO TAPER
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD SEE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS MUCH COOLER AIR
FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY AS AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIRMASS OVERSPREADS OUR REGION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
THE +15C TO +18C RANGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HOLDS OFF AS LONG AS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WOULD BE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A DAY OF NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. CURRENT RECORD HIGH
TEMPS FOR OCTOBER 28TH ARE 74 AT BUFFALO (1946)...76 AT ROCHESTER
(1984)...AND 75 AT WATERTOWN (1984)...WITH THE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER APPEARING TO BE THOSE MOST IN JEOPARDY AT THIS
PARTICULAR JUNCTURE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING
BACK TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...OR SOME 20-25 DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY`S EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPARED TO TUESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER...BUT ALSO RELATIVELY QUIET AND NONDESCRIPT AS
BROAD/RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH AREAS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIMITED NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY.
MEANWHILE.. GRADUAL COOLING OF OUR AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGHS SETTLING BACK TO THE MID 50S IN MOST PLACES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
TO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEPENING/SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...IT DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CROSSING NEW
YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF
REMAIN WEAKER AND MORE SUGGESTIVE OF A MUCH BROADER/WEAKER SYSTEM
CROSSING OUR REGION DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

ALL THE ABOVE SAID...HOWEVER YOU SLICE IT EITHER SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN GENERAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY...WITH DEVELOPING COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHATEVER SYSTEM THERE IS EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING A MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE
SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY AND STEADILY COOL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY...AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES ON WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
LAKE EFFECT IS ALSO RESULTING IN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...CLOSER TO A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM KART. CIGS ARE VFR FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CIGS WILL
DIP INTO VFR TERRITORY BY VIRTUE OF ELEVATION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND ANY
LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THUS CONTINUE...WITH A NEW SCA
BEING ISSUED FOR THE BUF HARBOR AND UPPER IAG RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO LOWER...WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FORECAST TO EXPIRE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON MONDAY
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL FOUR FOOT WAVES BETWEEN IRONDEQUOIT BAY AND MEXICO BAY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THESE WAVES WILL LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH







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