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000
FXUS61 KBUF 031504
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVERHEAD. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HILLS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK
TOWARDS AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IS ONCE AGAIN UPON US WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECT
PLENTY OF COLD SUNSHINE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...TO 10-14F NEAR THE LAKES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THOUGH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND -13
(SOUTH) TO -17C (NORTH) THROUGH THE DAY A COLDER LAYER OF AIR
CENTERED AROUND 925 HPA WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

OF A CLIMATE NOTE...THE RECORD COLD HIGH FOR TODAY FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES WERE ALL SET BACK IN THE YEAR 2003...BUFFALO (6F)
ROCHESTER (8F) AND WATERTOWN (2F). DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY RISE ABOVE THESE VALUES KEEPING THESE RECORDS SAFE FOR
ANOTHER YEAR. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE MONTH OF MARCH ARE VERY
RARE. ONLY 5 TIMES IN BUFFALO...6 TIMES IN ROCHESTER...AND 7 TIMES
IN WATERTOWN HAS A DAY REMAINED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MONTH
OF MARCH. THESE CITIES...PARTICULARLY BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN MAY HAVE A
SHOT AT REACHING THIS RARE FEAT.

TONIGHT EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AGAIN REORGANIZE...LARGELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BACK SOME
WITH THE ONSET OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH EVEN LOWER LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS EXPECT
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO ONLY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH
SNOW IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MANY
AREAS TO DROP BELOW 0F...SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORELINE AND UNDER THE CONTINUED LAKE CLOUDINESS. WINDS MAY BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN WITH A LIGHT
WIND...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SAME
AREAS AS THIS MORNING. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE -3/1943
(BUFFALO)...-4/1950 (ROCHESTER) AND -15/1950 (WATERTOWN). FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER TEMPERATURE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1871...AND
FOR WATERTOWN 1950.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF ENHANCED BY A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. QPF WITH THIS FEATURE ALONE
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTING
JUST DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. THE ONE THING TO WATCH HERE IS THAT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOISTURE
WILL POOL ON LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A WEAK MESO LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SW-W ON TUESDAY...SO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE SNOW A BIT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING HIGHS TO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
LOWER 20S NEAR THE PA STATE LINE.

THE UPPER TROF AND JET STREAK BOTH EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER LOW
MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE STRATUS TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL BE KEY TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WITH FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 POTENTIALLY TOO WARM IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE
IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUR WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON A SHARP
BUT SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH FEATURES ARE SUBTLE...RESULTING IN A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THIS CASE IT IS BEST
TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. ONE THING GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON IS THAT
THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR EVENT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AT SOME
POINT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. IN GENERAL...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
RUN LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY A FEW INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BUT NO MAJOR
SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THIS FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALLS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER THIS...A ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL HELP SHARPEN
THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH...THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WAVE
WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 15Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH IFR VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW. CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY. LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE WEAKENING TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST FLURRIES REMAINING THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHSN EXPECT
VFR UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TOWARDS EVENING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL AGAIN RE-ENERGIZE...THOUGH WITH A BACKING WIND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LARGELY FALL FROM ROCHESTER EASTWARD TO AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES. THEREAFTER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS