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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE CAPPED OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FREE
FALLING TEMPS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEENS AND
THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO JUST BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THICKER
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO ENCROACH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE  MIDDLE APPALACHIANS GATHERS ENERGY
AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH