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000
FXUS61 KBUF 252004
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION...PAVING THE WAY FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL BE FAIR SKIES TO START THE EVENING AS DIURNAL STRATO-CU
DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET...HOWEVER A PEEK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THIS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NY
LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AND AS SUCH HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO
ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH READINGS CRACKING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL TRIGGER
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE ELECTED TO
SCALE BACK POPS TO CHANCE/SCATTERED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING SATURDAY NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE CARRIED NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NEAR LAKE HURON TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIKELIEST AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTLE WARM BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE
PUSHING FROM SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
CANADA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD POPS HERE TO LOW
LIKELY...WITH CHANCE POPS REMAINING TOWARDS THE STATE LINE. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT TO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TIMING THE ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE HARD AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE
MORNING...AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...AFTERNOON SUN IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MAY CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPWARD LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL CREATE ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE LINE MEETING A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANAD. A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH THE BETTER KINEMATICS WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
GREATEST AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LESSER...BUT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

ON MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS A
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THOUGH SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FALL TO JUST
BELOW 10C...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MONDAY NIGHT SOME CLEARING WILL BRING A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE INTERIOR NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON
TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN THE 06-12Z
PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE LAKES TONIGHT AS LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WEAKEN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD