878
FXUS61 KBUF 262357
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
757 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain over the eastern Great Lakes
region through Saturday, producing several rounds of showers
and scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall
possible. The front will finally move east of the area Saturday
night, with high pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes
Sunday providing a dry second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A humid airmass persists across western and north-central NY today.
A broad ridge remains across the southeast U.S. with zonal flow
across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast. A wavy
stationary front remains across the Great Lakes region, with it
extending across western NY. A dichotomy of weather exists
across the forecast area where stratus and temperatures in the
mid 60s are just north of the front and sunshine, congested
cumulus and temperatures in the 80s are south of the front.
Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000 J/kg and shear of less than 25
knots across the western Southern Tier. Based on satellite
imagery, little if any glaciation has occurred in cu development
and based on the kinematics, severe threat is low through this
evening.

Elsewhere, multiple waves will continue to ride the westerly flow
today. Areas of rain will ride along the southern shore of Lake
Ontario this afternoon, while scattered showers move across the
North Country this afternoon.

The ridge builds northward while a shortwave trough moves into the
Upper Great Lakes region tonight. Widely scattered showers are
possible with the humid airmass in place but organized convection is
not anticipated for most of the night. A surface low will move into
the central Great Lakes Friday morning. A warm front will lift
northward across western NY Friday. Surface heating and a very
humid airmass will lead to convection initiation across western
NY by late Friday morning. A pre-frontal trough will likely be
the focus of showers and storms from the western Southern Tier
into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. The Buffalo
Metro and Niagara Frontier will be on the western fringe of
organized convection and should be spared by the greater
rainfall amounts. High PWATS, light 850-300mb wind, high RH% in
1000-500mb layer increases the potential for heavy rain across
the region. HREF 3-hr PMM shows medium (50-70%) probability of
greater than an inch of rain from Cattaraugus county to Monroe
county with probabilities tapering off west and east of that
corridor. There is a conditional threat for localized flash
flooding in this area.

Further north, showers are likely with a few thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon. Fcst shear is higher, but instability is low. The
threat for heavy rainfall is low east of Lake Ontario through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure over the SOO Locks Friday evening will move
across Ontario and into Quebec through Saturday night. A warm front
will move across the eastern Lake Ontario region Friday night. A
warm, humid airmass will maintain the chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Heavy rainfall is likely in
activity, and forecast soundings show some signals of training
storms east of Lake Ontario late Friday night. There is a
conditional threat of localized flooding overnight. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be less across western NY the first
half of the night, however upstream convection will likely move into
the region late Friday night. Due to the loss of daytime heating,
the severe threat is low late Friday night. The front will move
across the forecast area Saturday and the chance from showers and
storms will diminish from west to east. Cooler and drier air
will persist across the region through Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching cold front and trough will increase the
potential for showers late Monday, which will continue through
Tuesday evening for at least some portions of the area. Drier
weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, though some
guidance is suggesting the potential for afternoon showers with
the daytime heating.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the period, with
the warmest temperatures expected on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions across western NY terminals
this evening with low clouds remaining from the Niagara Frontier
eastward across the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. Conditions
will gradually improve near KBUF and KIAG tonight, but KROC
will likely remain at MVFR levels with a few scattered showers
as well. KJHW and other terminals across the Southern Tier
remain VFR at this time, but expecting conditions to drop to IFR
levels after 05z with weak flow and moist low-levels along with
scattered showers developing.

Scattered showers are expected Friday morning, with more
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.
Heavy rainfall with these storms will result in notable
reductions to visibility, especially near KJHW and KROC with
storms continuing into the early evening.


Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Scattered
thunderstorms also possible with local/brief IFR. Improving to
VFR with rain ending overnight Saturday.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms later in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure from Quebec continues to build toward northern
New England by Friday, while a frontal zone remains stalled over
the southern Great Lakes. Northeast winds 15-20kt on Lake
Ontario continue this evening with Small Craft Advisory
conditions continuing until early Friday morning as wind
gradual decrease. Winds will begin to turn out of the south
throughout Friday as the stalled frontal zone moves back north
as a warm front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for NYZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers/Hitchcock