Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160303
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM ONTARIO CANADA TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING A GORGEOUS AND
COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY TO THE REGION...BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE
OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING...WITH
A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROCEED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF BOTH MOISTURE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. MOST 12/18Z QPF GUIDANCE BRINGS
RAIN SHOWERS INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THIS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WITH THE MODEST 40-45KT
LLJ. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE IN KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING WHICH INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE DRY SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ERODE THE LEADING EDGE BUT EXPECT THIS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA JUST SHY OF 00Z FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS HAVE SPED UP TIMING A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT (850 HPA TEMPERATURES 6-8C) AND
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE TO BE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH
OF THIS PV ANOMALY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH PWATS
AROUND AN INCH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

THE WEAK NATURE OF UPPER FLOW AND GRADUAL DAMPENING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE LENDS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO DETAILS REGARDING
TIMING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES LATER FRIDAY AS IT
CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
SOME CLEARING.

AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH ALL
THINGS TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A SLOW OPENING OF THE
SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW WILL TAKING
SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
SHOWERS CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...A SHOWER THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS POTION OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL ALTHOUGH CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LESS. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS THREE DAY STRETCH SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR
AREA WIDE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY..VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES OR WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA/WCH
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





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