Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 202354
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
554 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
KEEPING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MENTIONED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VISIBILITY OVER MCALLEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.