Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 021724 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND LOWER...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 3 KFT INTO MVFR
TERRITORY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP...AS IT DID
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID VALLEY...AS WINDS BECOME
NEAR CALM BEFORE DAWN...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO A MILE AT
THAT TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOUPY...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING IN THE LOWER VALLEY...UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE LATE IN THE DAY. THE
BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THROUGH NOON OR EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
700FT AT KMFE TO NEAR 1300FT AT KEBG. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 2SM
WITH FOG AT KMFE AND KEBG TO NEAR 6SM WITH FOG AT KBRO AND KHRL.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z WITH FOG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE FOG BEGINS
TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH DIURNAL HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING EXISTS FRIDAY ACROSS AREAS WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
NEARLY SATURATED. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF CAMERON COUNTY ARE AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPS ON
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
H5 TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LACK
OF FRONTAL FORCING. SATURDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL TURN TO THE
NE...PUSHING LLVL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. CONCERN
REMAINS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
SATURDAY...THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN THE LOW 80S. HAVE TWEAKED POP CHANCES TO
LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MINIMAL CHANCES
FURTHER INLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NW GULF SUNDAY
MORNING...TURNING SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH TOWARDS
HOUSTON...SO DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR
18 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE RELAXING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
GULF. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE 10 TO 15
KNOTS...ALLOWING SEAS TO DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FEET. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SELY
FLOW TO RETURN TO THE NW GULF.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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