Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHUN 241109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
609 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A weak upper disturbance over eastern Texas along with the east-
northeast winds through the atmosphere have moved cirrus over the
local area through the overnight hours. Earlier this evening, a weak
southerly flow was helping to bring weak warm advection into the area
and keeping temperatures from falling quickly. Although winds are now
light, the cloud cover has become the factor that has kept temps
from falling to quickly. 3AM temps are in the middle 40s to lower
50s, much warmer than the previous two nights.

The upper disturbance will weaken and slowly push south through the
morning hours which will in turn drag the cirrus south with it. The
southern middle TN counties will go sunny the quickest with Cullman
County possibly seeing cirrus through much of the day. This will
probably have little effect on the high temps which are forecast to
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s today.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A ridge over much of the central U.S. will continue to strengthen
tonight aiding the clear skies that are expected. That, coupled with
the light winds will lead to good radiational cooling conditions.
Even with the warming 850 temps, lows will get to similar values as
previous nights, in the lower to upper 40s.

East-southeast flow at the lower levels develops on Tuesday as the
surface high meanders east. This will advect slightly cooler air
into the region and keep highs around 80 but down into the middle
70s in NE Alabama and southern middle TN.

As the ridge and surface high continue to track east, winds shift
southerly Tuesday night. Cirrus clouds will also be on the increase
as a frontal system approaches from the west. This will keep lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. This warm southerly flow and increasing
clouds continues Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to
around 80.

The upper ridge breaks down just enough on Wednesday to allow an
upper trough to develop over the upper midwest. The 850mb high
remains strong which will lift the upper low and the main support
for the surface front to the northeast. The front will start to make
its way across the local area by 12z Thursday with just enough
moisture and lift to have isolated showers accompanying it. Lows will
be warm, in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Oct
24 2016

The above mentioned cdfnt will push across the TN valley by Thursday
aftn or early evening, taking the sct shower activity with it. Will
keep pcpn as showers since instability values are very weak attm.
Temps behind this cdfnt will not cool off very much. Afternoon highs
on Friday are still progged to be arnd 80. However by Saturday
aftn/evening, another cdfnt will quickly move across the cwa. This
cdfnt looks to be a dry one but will bring cooler temps across the TN
valley by next weekend. Sunday looks dry and cool with highs in the
upper 60s and mrng lows in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.





For more information please visit our website
at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.