Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 180248

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
948 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Weakening line of showers/tstms continues to translate ewd across the
nrn half or NW AL and into the srn mid TN counties. This activity is
occurring along a pre-frontal trough axis, which is beginning to lift
newd into the mid TN Valley area. The main cold front itself is
still located from the Midwest swwd into the cntrl Plains and is not
xpcted to approach the cntrl TN Valley until the morning hrs Fri.
Convective activity should be tapering off to the ENE as midnight
approaches, with mainly just some light rain/showers perhaps
lingering into the overnight period. With the main front lagging to
the W coupled with light/var sfc winds, some low clouds/stratus and
patchy light fog are again possible going into the early morning
period, especially in the sheltered/valley areas and other fog prone
locations. As such, the forecast has been updated to lower rain
chances based on the current radar trends and to refresh some of the
hourly grids. No other major changes are needed at this point.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The front will continue pushing through the area early Friday
morning, with an isolated shot at seeing a shower/storm, mainly for
S/Ern portions of the area. Skies will clear from NW to SE rather
quickly behind the front, with mostly sunny skies likely by/before
midday for much of the area. Temperatures will top out around 90 in
NW AL, and only in the middle 80s for NE AL thanks to cloud cover
along/associated with the fropa. The push of drier air into the
region won`t arrive until later in the day tomorrow, with dewpoints
falling into the lower/middle 60s, making for morning lows in the
middle 60s. This is about 5-10 degrees lower than what we`ve seen in
recent days, and about 5-7 degrees below normal for this time of

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The weekend will end on a warm but dry note with daytime
highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
With dewpoints returning into the 70s, it will feel like it is
around 100 degrees. This warmth will continue into the beginning of
the week as a mid-Atlantic ridge builds westward across the
Southeast. The ridge won`t keep the precip away as a weak front will
lift back northward on Monday resulting in a slight chance of
showers and storms and diurnal driven afternoon convection on
Tuesday. For those excited about the Eclipse on Monday afternoon, sky
cover looks relatively good for viewing purposes, overall, with only
partly cloudy conditions in place.

An upper-level trough will swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night, sending disturbances towards the TN Valley through
northwesterly flow aloft. This will spark additional showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Greater coverage is expected
Wednesday as the system lifts northeast into New England and a
trailing cold front moves into the TN Valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conds prevail for now at both main terminals for this late Thu
afternoon, although this may be changing within the next few hrs as
a broken line of shra/tsra over wrn TN into extreme NE MS continues
to advance ewd. This line is associated with a cold front located
from the Midwest states swwd into the srn Plains. The convective
line should continue to translate ewd into the evening period, with
tempo MVFR cigs/vis possible in/near the heavier shra/tsra. Any
lingering precip should then move into NE AL during the overnight
hrs, although the frontal boundary itself may lag behind the exiting
precip by some 6 hrs or so. This may result in brief IFR cigs/vis
developing early Fri morning, before overall conds improve shortly
after daybreak. VFR conds should then prevail for the remainder of
the TAF period, with mainly just some mid/high clouds in place over
parts of the area coupled with sfc winds turning W near 10KT.





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