Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 102103
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
303 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The high pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will shift east
to along the eastern seaboard tonight. The ridge will still extend
southwest into GA and southern AL. With a clear sky, the boundary
layer should decouple allowing winds to drop to very light or calm,
especially in sheltered valley locations. Our low temperatures
tonight should easily drop into the middle to upper 20s at most
valley locales. Above the weak inversion, a few spots could stay
around 30 degrees on the ridge tops.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

A stronger warm advection profile will take shape on Sunday. The
surface ridge may hold a wedge in place through the Carolinas into
GA, while pressures fall in advance of the next frontal system
approaches. 850 mb temps are progged to warm into the 7-9C range.
Forecast soundings and MOS values suggest daytime maxes should reach
back into the lower to middle 50s as a result. It`s associated low
will move track across the western and central Great Lakes region,
while the cold front drops into a northeast-southwest position
across the upper Ohio and lower TN valleys, just northwest of our
forecast area by late Sunday Night. A frontal band of showers will
become widespread along it, spilling into our TN and northern AL
counties through the late night. Lapse rates and SI values point to a
very limited threat of thunderstorms, so withhold that from forecast
at this time. With the better QG dynamics staying to our north, the
front will weaken as will the precipitation area by late Monday. I
expect precipitation to become stratiform in nature Monday night,
possible diminishing to drizzle as a low cloud layer forms behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
 Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The extended stays in a near zonal flow pattern with model
inconsistencies still keeping the forecast at bay. The front will be
south of us on Tuesday, however kept in lingering showers into
Wednesday with highest pops in our NE counties. Tuesday`s highs will
be warm in the upper 50s thanks to southerly sfc flow, and with
mostly cloudy skies, overnight lows will only cool into the upper
30s/lower 40s.

On Wednesday, a deep upper-level low will move north of the Great
Lakes. Zonal flow continues, not providing much fan fare of a cold
front at this time. Models disagree on how quickly things will dry
out and the sfc high builds in. Regardless, temps will be cooler with
highs around 50 and overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s. Sfc high
will keep things dry and cold on Thursday. Highs will only be around
40 and lows will drop towards 30 degrees. Continued to keep frozen
precip out of the forecast on Friday morning. Chance of rain returns
on Friday as high pressure moves out of the region and the next
trough starts to dig across the West.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR flight weather conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.
Light northeast flow will become southeast early on Sunday.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...17


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