855
FXUS64 KHUN 182158
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
458 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The low pressure system that has moved from the Gulf into the
lower Mississippi Valley has continued to move northeastward,
increasing southerly flow into the Tennessee Valley. Storms this
afternoon should begin to gradually weaken by the late evening and
fully dissipate by midnight. However, lingering cloud cover from
this system should dissuade fog formation overnight. Low
temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high continue to
be stagnant over the southeast and the aforementioned sfc low
continues northeastward, heat concerns begin to ramp up through
the short term period. Heat indices increase from 98-102 degrees
on Saturday into the 101-109 range by Monday afternoon. Heat
products will likely be considered by Sunday in future forecast
updates. High temperatures during this time are forecast to reach
the low to mid 90s. If trends continue and temperatures continue
to rise, an Extreme Heat product may be considered.

Daily thunderstorm chances (30-50%) continue through the short
term period in response to diurnal heating. A few stronger storms
that form will be capable of gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and
frequent lightning in addition to heavy rainfall. The primary
concern through the weekend will continue to be flooding as PWATs
remain in the 2-2.2" range, which is at or above the 90th
percentile per BMX sounding climatology. The HREF once again
indicates localized rainfall totals up to 3" in some locations,
however, most areas should see up to 0.1-0.5" if rainfall occurs.
Will have to monitor low lying areas and areas of poor drainage
for ponding of water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A broad area of high pressure will gradually begin to become
established over the Deep South early next week. Ample moisture
underneath this ridge will result in medium chances for
showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, but PoPs are trending a little
lower each day as the ridge amplifies by midweek. Confidence is
increasing in a building heatwave that will occur thanks to the
warm air mass underneath this ridge and the deep tropical moisture
in place. A gradual warming trend will take place through the
week, with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s returning by
Tuesday through Thursday, with peak heat index values near or
above 105 degrees becoming more probable during this timeframe.
Thus, additional Heat Advisories may be needed mid to late next
week due to the building heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Any remaining scattered SHRA or TSRA should dissipate by 02Z, with
VFR conditions lasting until about 08-09Z. Then, low clouds are
forecast to develop with ceilings below 010agl (IFR). These will
slowly lift above 010agl (MVFR) through 14Z, then above 030agl
(VFR) by 18Z. Scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA are forecast
after 18Z, so have included VCTS at both KMSL and KHSV for the
duration of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal
Temperatures for July 26th through August 1st. Temperatures reaching
or exceeding the mid to upper 90s with heat indices between 100-105
degrees F are possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
CLIMATE...26