Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020816
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE REPRESENTED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WERE ROTATING INTO THE BIG BEND...AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE SUWANEE RIVER...AND ISOLATED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD ALONG SUWANEE RIVER AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-10. IF ENOUGH INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY THE
GFS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SO WENT CLOSER TO MET POPS AND LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. LIGHT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE
TYPICAL SPOTS...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA (500 MB VORT MAX)
WILL MOVE SE FROM THE SE GA COAST TO OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THERE. POPS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND ENHANCED BY
HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AGAIN
AND AREA WIDE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM THE
NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEABREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INLAND AREA WHICH WILL
HELP ENHANCE STORMS THERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADE INTO THE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SFC RIDGE WILL WEDGE
DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM
OFFSHORE CREATING NELY TO E FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A POTENTIAL WET PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA WITH
SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE WEDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND
A RIDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KGNV AND KVQQ AROUND
DAYBREAK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AND INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS MAY ROTATE INTO THE REGION...NEAR KGNV THIS MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD TOWARDS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSSI THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  73  93  74 /  60  40  40  20
SSI  85  76  88  77 /  50  50  40  30
JAX  88  74  90  74 /  60  50  50  30
SGJ  87  76  88  75 /  50  50  60  30
GNV  89  74  91  73 /  50  20  60  30
OCF  90  74  91  73 /  30  20  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/



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