Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE



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