Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240305
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...WINDY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...

.UPDATE...
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1029
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND...AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1015 MILLIBARS) WAS SITUATED OFF
THE GEORGIA COASTLINE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS IN
AN EAST/WEST FASHION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
ROTATING OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...FILTERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT INTO OUR INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH
AT THE DUVAL AND ST. JOHNS BEACHES. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW BANDS
OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST FL. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVERNIGHT...AS THE EVENING
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE REGISTERED 35 KNOTS AT JUST 1500 FT. WILL
KEEP HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 301. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OF SHOWER BANDS IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS...BUT ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED INTERMITTENT THUS FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
SSI...CRG AND JAX TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AS THEY
COME ONSHORE...WITH RECENT GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND 34 MPH AT JAX AND
MAYPORT IN A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS. DRIER MID LEVEL WAS TRYING TO
ERODE LOW CIGS INLAND AT VQQ AND GNV THIS EVENING WHICH REPORTED
CIGS FEW-SCT AT 4-5 KFT...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS TO EDGE INLAND AND LOWER AS THE
LAND MASS COOLS WITH MVFR TO IFR ADVERTISED AT GNV. LOW CIGS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT WED MORNING AND ADVERTISED MVFR THROUGH LATE  MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
NORTHWARD TO AVERAGE NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY EDGES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE...WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND WINDS SUBSIDING TO NEAR 15
KNOTS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF
OUR REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH RISK EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  80  62  82 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  76  78  67  81 /  50  40  40  50
JAX  70  80  67  83 /  50  40  40  50
SGJ  73  79  71  84 /  50  50  60  70
GNV  66  83  66  85 /  30  30  30  50
OCF  69  84  70  88 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI/WALKER






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