Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271852
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
252 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Through Monday night...

The large deep layer ridge centered across the mid Atlantic will
gradually weaken and become more east west orientated by the end of
the period. Will continue to have a deep northeast to east flow
which will bring in convergent bands of showers mainly to coastal
areas at any time which will move inland during the afternoon.
Isolated storms are possible in some of the heavier showers but
model soundings continue to indicate warm temps aloft with a 850 mb
cap which will tend to limit deep convection. Moisture increases
from the southeast especially by Monday as a deep layer inverted
trough approaches the area from the western Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between a wedge across the eastern U.S and Invest 99L well
to the south will produce a deep fetch of east to northeast winds
along with convergent bands of showers along the coast and moving to
the west inland during the afternoon. Show an increase in pops with
the highest pops across the far south and southeast. Cooler
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 80s can be expected along the
coast due to onshore flow and cloud cover. Hotter afternoon temps in
the lower/mid 90s well inland.

Tuesday...Models still widely varied on solutions as to where
tropical wave/disturbance will be by this time Tue Morning ranging
from the Central GOMEX to the West Coast of FL Peninsula so very
low confidence in any impacts from this system over the NE FL/SE
GA region, but in general expect Easterly steering flow in the
lower levels with models in general trying to show expanded
moisture trying to push northward up the FL peninsula. Overall
this leads to scattered to numerous showers across NE FL with
lesser activity across SE GA in the onshore flow with highs in the
upper 80s along the coast/NE FL and around 90 across inld SE GA.
Could be some heavier rainfall embedded in activity along the
coast and NE FL due to deeper moisture but still no details in
amounts available this far out.

.LONG TERM /Wed-Sat/...

Will emphasize that confidence remains very low in this time frame
as models range in solutions, but some overall trend that tropical
wave/trof/disturbance in the E/NE GOMEX might get caught up in
approaching trof across the southern U.S. and get pushed across
the FL peninsula on WED, then head into the WRN ATLC at the end
of the week. Any details on exact track of this system is very
sketchy at this time and any local impacts will range widely
depending on where it crosses the Peninsula. IF its further north
near the FL/GA border then this will lead to higher rainfall
impacts across NE FL, but overall with recent summer dryness
expect most of this would be beneficial. If as the recent 12Z GFS
ensembles suggest it might cross further south across Central FL
then impacts would be less. Overall the pattern leaves trofiness
across the region into early next weekend with at least scattered
to possibly numerous showers and embedded storms each day with the
best chances along the coast and across NE FL at night and morning
hours with some chances over inland areas during the afternoon
hours. Near climo temps with highs near 90 and lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...There may be brief periods of MVFR cigs and showers
especially near the coast. Otherwise prevailing VFR expected with
gusty northeast to east winds near the coast.


&&

.MARINE...The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower
pressure across the Bahamas will produce a northeast to east flow
across the waters along with convergent bands of showers. Wind
speeds will occasionally approach SCEC and swells will increase due
to the large fetch of easterly winds. Marine interests are advised
to stay informed on the latest forecasts of Invest 99L which may
begin to impact the waters early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate to high risk at least through Friday due to a
moderate onshore flow and long period swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  91 /  10  30  10  30
SSI  78  88  77  87 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  74  90  74  88 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  78  87  77  87 /  30  30  30  60
GNV  74  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40
OCF  74  92  74  89 /  20  40  20  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Peterson/Hess



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