Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 190128
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...
MAIN ARC OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SO
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE E/NE AND SHOULD END UP
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL BY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD TSTM BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW ISOLD STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AND IF ANY HEATING CAN BE REALIZED A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
THE 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE FL
IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO A
LARGE VARIANCE IN CEILINGS...WHICH RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR TO VFR AT
AREA TAF SITES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000 TO 5000 FEET. RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS WITH A
GENERAL SOUTH FLOW AT 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH 4-6
FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP CURRENT SCEC
HEADLINES NEARSHORE AND SCA OFFSHORE IN PLACE. AS SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE WHEN RUN
OFF FROM RAINFALL TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES AROUND
1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IN THE
URBAN AREAS OF BRUNSWICK WHERE THEY RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN JACKSONVILLE (MC COY`S CREEK)
AND ST AUGUSTINE WHERE LESS RAINFALL FELL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
SINCE IT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ANYWAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDED UP GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE, BUT
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLD SE GA WILL
PUSH THE SUWANNEE BASIN TO MODERATE FLOOD AND SANTA FE/ALAPAHA
BASINS TO MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STATUS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT ALMA AND ST SIMONS ISLAND WITH
AMOUNTS STILL INCREASING THIS EVENING. WILL END UP OVER 3 INCHES
AT SSI AND OVER 2 INCHES AT AMG BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  64  53  70 /  80  50  40  20
SSI  61  68  57  68 /  90  60  50  30
JAX  64  71  56  72 /  80  40  40  30
SGJ  66  74  59  71 /  80  40  30  30
GNV  66  73  55  77 /  50  30  20  20
OCF  64  75  55  79 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/MCALLISTER




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