Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210643
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
243 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure will be East Southeast of the region this period.
Early morning fog will be expected inland Today, especially in areas
which saw rainfall Thursday. Convection is expected to initiate well
inland late this morning, where best moisture convergence will
exist. An upper low overhead Today will help to strengthen
convection which develops. With a general Westerly flow early in the
day into early afternoon, this activity will then move East through
the afternoon, where it will meet with East coast sea breeze. This
meeting will likely occur west of the I95 corridor, closer to route
301. This is where strongest convection will be expected this
afternoon into early evening. With loss of diurnal heating
convection will dissipate this evening, with clouds decreasing
overnight.

Temperatures will trend above normal for this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday and Sunday/...

Weekend synopsis...Mid-level low will continue to retrograde further
over the northern Gulf coast states then into Louisiana and Texas
over the weekend. Large area of surface high pressure will extend
over MDR of the Atlantic. The western periphery of the surface
ridge will extend into South Florida Saturday and then expanding
across into the central part of the peninsula and across the
eastern GOM.

Saturday...During the morning, isolated to scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms will begin to pivot around the western
periphery of the Atlantic ridge into central FL, and advect
northward through the morning hours into north central Florida.
Then migrate northward over the rest of northeast Florida during
the afternoon. South of the FL/GA border...a fairly deep layer
light west to southwest flow is anticipated and should delay the
Atlantic sea breeze and should pin it over the nearshore waters
for most of the day with predominate west coast sea breeze
developing across NE FL with 5h temps -7 to -8C. Afternoon
convection will be more limited across SE GA with strong ridge
over the mid MS river valley which extends into south GA with 5h
temps -5.5 to -6.5C. Isolated to widely scattered storms shift
eastward during the day and continuing mainly east of I-95 and
adjacent Atlantic water through late evening.

.Sunday...The overall pattern suggests morning and early
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over Big Bend region around
daybreak, with activity then shifting inland over the Suwannee
Valley and interior SE GA during the morning hours, and then
increasing increasing in areal coverage between I-75 and highway
301, becoming scattered to numerous as the east coast sea breeze
meets its western counterpart during the late afternoon / early
evening near I-95. High temperatures Sunday should be knocked down
a degree or two with increased afternoon cloud cover and
showers/tstms.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

Monday and Tuesday...Surface high pressure stays strong across the
Atlantic extending into South Florida, so we`ll likely see more
dominant Gulf seabreeze convection through most of next week with
a predominant light southwest flow across the region. Scattered
showers and storms early next week particularly across SE GA as an
eastern CONUS trof develops and then extends southward into
Georgia as as PWATS increase near or above 2". A weak attendant
frontal boundary is anticipated to move into northern GA Tuesday
morning and into central GA by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Storms will remain scattered to numerous in
coverage Wednesday and Thursday, especially along and north of
the I-10 corridor. The NE CONUS upper level trof does push off in
the Atlantic, with the trof axis extending southeast over our
offshore waters. Temperatures at or slightly below normal by mid
to late week as thunderstorm coverage increases with upper low
moving back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy morning fog will be expected inland, mainly affecting KGNV.
Convection will initiate late this morning inland, and move toward
the East coast in the afternoon. Brief reductions will be possible
in and near storms.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure will be East Southeast of the region through
the early part of next week. A trough of low pressure will sink
Southeast across the region and dissipate toward the middle of next
week.

Rip Currents:  Moderate risk Today and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  94  75 /  30  10  30  30
SSI  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  30  20
JAX  94  74  93  76 /  20  20  50  20
SGJ  94  75  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
GNV  93  72  91  74 /  40  20  50  20
OCF  92  72  91  74 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Cordero/Struble/



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