Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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843
FXUS62 KJAX 062048
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW AND ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS LEADING TO A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE WITH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF NEAR
SUSTAINED GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE FENCE OF WHETHER OR NOT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE NAM IS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
SHOWS THE SOUNDING COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL ABOUT 1000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ALMA. OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIZABLE WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW A BRIEF MIX TO
QUICK CHANGE OVER OF SNOW IN THAT REGION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES IF THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
30S TO THE MID 40S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR 30 TO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING BY NOON FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS DEPARTS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
EARLY SUN EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON TUES. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TEMPORARILY LOOSEN ON SUN NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
LOWS INLAND TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL
TO AROUND 5 MPH INLAND AND NEAR 10 MPH AT THE COAST...AND A FEW
PATCHES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY
ON MON MORNING. LOWS AT THE COAST WILL FALL TO AROUND 40.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MON AHEAD OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS MON WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY
60-65...BEFORE CLOUDINESS INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON MON EVENING...WITH THE FRONT BLASTING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL MON
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING LOWS BACK TO THE MID 30S
INLAND...AND NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. WIND CHILLS BY TUES MORNING
WILL FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON
TUES...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUES AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT
INCREASE INSTABILITY. W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FEEL EVEN COLDER. W/NW WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT TUES NIGHT AND NEAR 15 MPH AT THE
BEACHES...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S REGION-WIDE. INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON WED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED INLAND AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...AND WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WED NIGHT. ANOTHER BREEZY AND
CHILLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WED DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 50-55 REGION-WIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA WED EVENING...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE. AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING...WITH A HEAVY FROST
POSSIBLE INLAND AS WINDS BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
MODERATE THURS AND FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRI...GENERALLY 65-70. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING LOWS IN THE 45-50
RANGE. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SAT...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S.

&&


.AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED  TO PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT RAIN PREVAILING THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND NEAR GALE SUSTAINED FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...SUSTAINED HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH  WEDNESDAY AS STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA ON SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 30-35
PERCENT INLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON...TUES...AND WED AFTERNOONS...WITH STRONG MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS EACH DAY. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE DRIVEN ERC VALUES
WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  57  36  59 /  40  10   0  20
SSI  39  53  39  60 /  70  40   0  20
JAX  41  55  37  64 /  70  20   0  10
SGJ  43  55  40  64 /  70  20   0  10
GNV  39  57  36  64 /  60   0   0  20
OCF  41  58  36  64 /  70   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

KENNEDY/NELSON/GUILLET



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