Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210244
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE A SHALLOW NORTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW LIFT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS THAT
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN
VERY LIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT
THE MOST. BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY ONLY A TENTH OR TWO AT THE MOST. WILL SHOW
THE BEST CHANCES (40-50%) FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL
THROUGH ALL OF SE GEORGIA. WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20-30% ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE WHERE LIFT IS
NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG. INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW JUST
OFFSHORE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE AREA. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE GROUND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG ISSUES
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO TIME IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z SUN. IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE GNV
TERMINAL AROUND 03Z-04Z. LIFR CIGS AROUND 400 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
AT SSI...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP UNTIL
AROUND 09Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST
FL TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS TOWARDS 15Z. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 2000 FT AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE
3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
CAUTION SPEEDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN
THESE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO A
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. STEADY RAINS...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY...WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
WINDS AND A SMALL LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL OF 1-2 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  57  52  65 /  50  70  70  60
SSI  52  59  56  64 /  40  50  90  70
JAX  52  65  59  72 /  30  50  90  80
SGJ  56  68  61  71 /  20  40  90  70
GNV  53  70  62  73 /  30  50  90  70
OCF  56  74  62  75 /  20  50  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH









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