Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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760
FXUS62 KJAX 271826
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016


.NEAR TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Dry conditions continue across the region this afternoon under a
dry and deep west to northwesterly flow. A few showers and an
isolated storm are possible through the early evening. Otherwise,
partly cloudy skies and tranquil conditions will continue through
the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

A strong trough of low pressure and upper level low will begin
its dive southward across the upper Great Lakes and into the Ohio
valley on Wednesday, which will reinforce the east coast trough.
An area of low pressure east of the Carolinas will push to the
northeast and deepen as it interacts with the upper level trough.
A frontal boundary trailing this area of low pressure will stall
across the southeast to the north of the region. A much stronger
cold front will push into the Tennessee valley late Wednesday
afternoon, and approach the region after the end of the near term
period. An upper level shortwave rotating around the base of the
trough was located across eastern Texas this afternoon, and will
move along the northern Gulf coast tonight and then into the
region on Wednesday. An increase in moisture is forecast out ahead
of this feature, with precipitable water values increasing to
around 1.9 inches across northeast Florida in the afternoon.
Scattered convection is forecast to move in from the Gulf in the
morning, and then spread across the rest of the region throughout
the afternoon hours. The best rainfall chances will likely remain
along the Suwanee valley region. Afternoon highs on Wednesday
after forecast to be in the mid 80s to near 90.

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Cold front begins to make a push into Southeast Georgia into
Thursday, with best chances for precipitation ahead and along the
boundary. Some differences between models in the Thursday night
into Friday time frame. NAM pushes the boundary through slower, as
the front washes out, while the GFS maintains a stronger front
which clears the forecast area Thursday night. The ECMWF has
similar timing and strength to GFS, but also tends to wash
boundary out over NE FL Friday. The timing and strength of model
solutions for this feature has been and continues to be fairly
inconsistent, so will favor a less aggressive frontal passage. The
main issue will be precipitation timing and temperature forecast
for Thursday night into Friday morning. In either case, expect
drier air to advect Southeast by Friday afternoon, leading to
sunny skies and lower dewpoints over much of forecast area. The
exception could be area from Flagler back to Marion, where clouds
and showers could linger into Friday, if front washes out over NE
FL.

Temperatures will range above normal Wednesday night into Thursday,
with readings near to slightly below normal for Thursday night into
Friday.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A broad ridge of surface high pressure will build North of the
region through the weekend into early next week, which will lead
to a prolonged period of onshore flow. With the onshore flow,
moisture will gradually increase across the region, with coastal
showers spreading inland. Due to uncertainty as to development and
track of potential tropical system in the Caribbean early next
week, there is a degree of uncertainty in the forecast for local
region into Tuesday. At this point will keep with onshore flow
forecast, as most, if any tropical related impacts would likely be
beyond this periods forecast timeframe.

Near to sligtly above normal temperatures are expected for the
weekend, with near to slightly below normal readings into next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southwesterly flow is expected to develop Tonight Wednesday, as a
cold front approaches the region from the Northwest. This cold front
will slowly push Southeast across the region Thursday into Friday.
Drier air will begin to filter into Southeast Georgia Thursday, then
into Northeast Florida on Friday. While RH levels are expected to
remain above critical levels this period, minimum RH levels in the
30s can be expected over portions of the region Thursday afternoon
through Saturday, especially over Southeast Georgia. A broad ridge
of high pressure will build to the North of the region over the
weekend into early next week, bringing a period of onshore flow and
an increase in moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly dry and VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the
overnight hours. Some patchy fog or low stratus is forecast near
daybreak on Wednesday. Showers will increase in coverage from the
Gulf and towards the KGNV in the morning, and then spread to the
rest of the TAF sites around 18Z. Easterly winds 5-10 knots are
forecast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland,
with light winds overnight. Westerly winds 5-10 knots are forecast
on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be mostly offshore for the remainder of the week with
a cold front to move through the area on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  67  88 /  10  40  30  10
SSI  72  87  72  88 /  10  40  40  20
JAX  69  89  70  88 /  10  40  40  20
SGJ  72  87  72  87 /  10  40  30  30
GNV  70  87  70  85 /  10  50  40  30
OCF  70  87  71  86 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Struble/Nelson



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