Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251937
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
237 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM.../through Monday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the Southeast and a cold
front approaching from the Northwest. Moisture will continue to
stream Northeast into the region this afternoon. This moisture will
encounter surface based instability leading to a few showers. The
best chance for showers will be over inland SE GA closer to the
boundary, and later this afternoon along I95, where the East coast
sea breeze will provide additional lift.

For Tonight, most of the showers will dissipate with the loss of
diurnal heating, except inland SE GA closer to the front. With the
moist Southwest flow continuing Tonight, fog is expected to spread
Northeast from the gulf across the region. Fog could become dense
Overnight, and linger into Monday morning.

The front will slowly slide Southeast into the region on Monday,
reaching near the GA/FL line in the afternoon. Best chance for
precipitation Monday will be along and behind the front. Above
normal temperatures will be expected again Monday, with the highest
readings across NE FL, where record highs will again be possible.

.SHORT TERM...Mon night through Wed...

Sfc cold front will be pushing southward across the region Mon
evening and overnight with a chance of showers and a very low
chance of an evening thunderstorm. Rainfall amounts are light due
to weak forcing aloft. Front should continue moving southward to
be near or south of Marion county by sunrise Tuesday morning as
1032 mb sfc high pressure moves to VA/MD area. With projected
position of high pres...low level winds will quickly come around
to the north and northeast behind front by early Tuesday morning.
Low temps in the 50s north and 60s south. Tuesday...cooler temps
and partly to mostly cloudy skies as front remains south of the
area while sfc high pressure moves off the DELMARVA coast. Breezy
northeast winds at the coast with lower northeast winds inland.
Max temps expected to be closer to normal in the 70s...with
potential for some areas to remain in the 60s due to northeast
flow and mostly cloudy conditions. Low chance of a few showers for
ern northeast FL zones to due moisture convergence near the
coast.

Tuesday night into Wed...Mid level ridging across the Gulf of
Mexico will move east and build a bit northward while sfc high
pressure near the VA/NC coast moves ewd. This will result in
veering low level winds and modifying temps with winds eventually
becoming southerly Wed aftn as developing warm front lifts from
across FL and eventually pushes into srn GA Wed evening. Weak
coastal trough Tue night and warm advection will result a low
chance of showers and potential for fog early Wed morning.
Forecast highs on Wed could reach upper 70s to lower 80s deg
again as warm advection develops.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Progressive mid and upper level trough over the central CONUS
Thursday will move quickly to the east coast Thursday night with
associated cold front likely moving into southeast GA Thursday
aftn based on good agreement between GFS and ECMWF. Deep
southwest to west flow expected ahead of the front pushing temps
into the 80s again...especially northeast FL where temps may rise
to mid 80s producing near record temps again. Breezy southwest
winds expected and a chance of showers with an outside chance of a
thunderstorm but overall instability looks weak given poor
moisture return ahead of front. Thursday evening/overnight...front
looks to push quickly south of the area with just brief shot of
showers along/ahead of front. A little cooler and very dry air
moving in by early Friday with max temps back in the 70s again
most areas with deep northwest flow expected and mostly
sunny/sunny skies by late morning and into aftn. Sat and
Sun...should be a nice weekend with dry and seasonable temps/dry
conditions expected with large high pressure ridge dominating the
east and southeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions will persist this afternoon and
evening, with the chance for an isolated showers. Fog and stratus
is expected to overspread the region overnight. The fog could
become dense. Restrictions will be expected Overnight into Monday
morning. Conditions will slowly improve through noon. A front will
approach from the Northwest Monday afternoon, with the chances
for showers increasing.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be to the East Today, then to the Southeast
Monday morning. A cold front will slide across the area waters
Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build to the
North on Tuesday, then to the Northeast Tuesday night, as the
front lifts back to the North as a warm front. High pressure will
be to the East then Southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong cold front is expected to pass Southeast across the region
Thursday night, with high pressure building to the West on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  78  57  70 /  20  60  30  10
SSI  64  77  60  65 /  20  30  40  10
JAX  64  83  63  71 /  10  20  30  10
SGJ  66  84  64  71 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  63  83  64  75 /   0  10  20  10
OCF  63  84  65  79 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/Shashy


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