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000
FXUS62 KCAE 281356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
EVENING. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PRECIP CHANCES. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO RE DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND MID DAY IN THE
MIDLANDS...LIKELY INTENSIFYING IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. PRECIP
SHUTS OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE
AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TAF SITES.

CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL.
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED PRECIP THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF
CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$