Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 242338
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
738 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
Upper-level high pressure will dominate and maintain dry
conditions through Saturday. Moisture will gradually increase late
this weekend into next week, as a low-level onshore flow brings a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the area from
the northeast as a large upper level ridge covers the Deep South.
The remains of an old frontal boundary south of the forecast area
will continue weakening and reorienting to the west with dry air
blanketing our area. The temperature guidance was close. Overnight
lows will once again range from the mid 60s to lower 70s under
partly cloudy skies.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high center will shift to the E/NE into the W Carolinas/Srn
Appalachians. Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard
will weaken and shift east, leaving a weak ridge axis along the
coast, while a weak surface trough slowly moves across the
Carolinas/Mid Atlantic Thu/Fri. Moisture appears limited, and with
upper high in place. Precipitation is not expected across the
forecast area through Friday night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate upper high center will continue to shift a little to
the E/NE towards the mid atlantic coast. Behind the surface trough,
a new area of surface high pressure will build down the eastern
seaboard, with indications of low pressure, possibly tropical, well
to our south. Result may be an easterly low level flow off the
Atlantic over our FA, gradually resulting in low level moisture
increase, and possibly a slight chance of showers or an
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the period, although low confidence
in a possible fog threat late tonight at AGS.
Upper ridging will persist over the region while high pressure
continues to dominate at the surface resulting in fair weather
during the 24 hour period. Broken high level clouds at the start
of the period should diminish and shift south of the area
overnight. Model forecasts indicate some lower level moisture near
the area during the morning hours but confidence is low that it
will result in cloud cover. Radiational cooling overnight will
provide an opportunity for river valley fog at AGS but confidence
is low and will not include in the forecast at this time but
cannot be ruled out. Winds will become light and variable to calm
after 03z through the remainder of the night then pick up out of
the northeast by 15z around 5 to 7 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be widespread stratus and
fog associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during
the early morning hours Friday through Monday.
The last time the temperature dipped below 70 at Columbia Metro
was the low of 61 on June 20th. Augusta Bush was last in the 60s
just last month on July 22nd with a low of 69. Augusta Daniel was
last in the 60s on June 20th with a low of 66.