Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 090552
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY. A 40KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROMOTE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. DESPITE MIXING...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK
WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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