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000
FXUS62 KCAE 040539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$