Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 251759
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1259 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this afternoon
with gusty west winds and well above normal temperatures.
A cool and dry pressure ridge will build over the area Sunday.
Moisture returns Monday as high pressure moves off the coast.
Another cold front will cross the region around the middle of
next week with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front crossing the forecast area at 17Z will move off
the coast by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
ahead of the front with rapid clearing in its wake.

Southwest winds ahead of the front and strong downslope flow
after frontal passage this afternoon. Cold advection appears
weak until late. Temperatures will once again be well above
normal with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The timing for any
precipitation appear to be from 15Z west to 21Z in the east
Midlands. Model soundings support wind gusts 25 to 35 knots this
afternoon. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from noon until
10 pm.

Gusty winds in the evening will diminish overnight. Clear skies.
Cold advection will result in temperatures falling into the 30s
as per guidance consensus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will provide the Midlands and CSRA with a
clear and seasonable Sunday.  The surface high moves offshore Monday
with a return flow allowing a rapid increase in moisture.  The 12z
models hold off on showers and thunderstorms until Monday Night into
Tuesday. Temperatures will return to above climo levels Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep late winter upper trough digs into the Plains states on
Wednesday and progresses into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the
end of the week.  A powerful cold front is forecast to sweep across
the Southeast U.S. Wednesday Night into Thursday morning.  Expect
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and with the front Wednesday into
Thursday morning.  Canadian high pressure will build into the
Eastern U.S. behind this system Thursday afternoon into next
weekend.  Temperatures will start out above climo for early March
and then drop to near or below climo by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected.

A cold front crossing the Midlands will move east of the TAF
sites by 20Z. Only isolated showers expected.

Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots
ahead of the cold front veer west 15-20 knots with gust up to
30 knots...then veer northwest and gradually subside after
26/00z. Drier air will overtake the region with fropa with skies
clearing this afternoon. No fog expected tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR and/or IFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected at times at TAF sites Monday Night
through Thursday morning in showers, thunderstorms and fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$


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