Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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