Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 260225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Moisture
and instability will increase for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Skies have cleared across the area this evening after meager
isolated convective showers developed in peak heating. The presence
of 500mb temperatures around -2C and 700mb temperatures around +11C
was evident in the struggling showers which quickly dissipated with
sunset. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with little fog
expected due to a 25 knot low level jet forecast. Temperatures have
been slowly cooling off but winds are staying up and helping to keep
the boundary layer mixed. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no
airmass exchange for the next several days. Warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions persist with isolated convection mainly
diurnally driven. PW values around 1.5 in the midlands to 2.0 in
the CSRA will provide moisture for the few thunderstorms that do
break through the capping. Temperatures will remain above normal
with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and lows
in the 70s. Heat indices will range from 100 to around 106
degrees each afternoon.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF models keep upper level ridge over the SE US through
late week before bringing a shortwave into the mid Mississippi and
Ohio river valleys by Sat 12z. At this time it appears most of the
energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however
it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and
Sun. The better chances for convection appear to be next weekend
with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
frontal bounday. Thursday and Friday mainly dry with
isolated/widely scattered convection. Temperatures above normal
with a little cooling by the weekend especially with greater cloud
cover. Expect highs in the mid/upper 90s with overnight lows in
the low/mid 70s.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period.
Models indicate drier low levels and some mixing associated with
a 20 to 25 kt LLJ. Fog potential will be limited. Winds will
remain light generally from the south overnight. On
Tuesday...expect very similar conditions as Monday with some cu
developing in the late morning/midday hours. Winds will be from
the southwest around 6 kts.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for brief
periods of early morning fog...mainly at AGS/OGB.