Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




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