Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
654 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through tonight followed by cooler temperatures for mid week.
Fair with a warming trend late week. Next weather system may
approach by next weekend.


A southern stream closed low will lift from the mid Mississippi
Valley region toward the lower Tennessee/Ohio Valley region
today eventually merging with the broad upper trough. A cold
front will approach the region from the west and begin moving
into the Central Savannah River Area late this afternoon.
Increasing moisture and weak isentropic lift will support
showers during the day. Precipitable water values approach 2.0
inches so rainfall may be heavy at times. Expect most locations
to see around 1 inch of rainfall. Most of the forecast area has
been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center in a slight risk
for severe weather. Clouds and rain during the day are expected
to hinder diurnal heating, ultimately limiting instability. However,
shear appears strong so expect any convection to be organized.
Most of the high resolution models show a line of convection
moving through the area during the late afternoon and early
evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat while a brief
tornado may also be possible. SRH values support rotating
updrafts. Ultimately, instability will be the limiting factor.

With rainfall and clouds through the day, a small diurnal range
of temperatures is expected with highs only about 5 degrees
warmer than morning lows, in the lower to middle 70s.


May still have some lingering showers and thunderstorms early
this evening, with the highest rain chances across the eastern
half of the cwa. Rain chances will continue to diminish from
west to east through the night tonight as the cold front moves
through and drier air begins to move in. The main cold front
will be pushing through the forecast area overnight, and will be
east of the area by Tuesday morning. Overnight lows in the low
to mid 50s across the western cwa, while eastern counties will
only fall into the upper 50s tonight. Drier and cooler weather
will prevail behind the front through Thursday night.
Temperatures on Tuesday will still climb into the 70s as the
coldest air still lags behind the main front somewhat. However
by Wednesday, the cold air will be settling over the region.
Highs on Wednesday will only reach the lower to middle 60s. Lows
Wednesday night will fall down to around 40. There may be some
slight moderation of temperatures on Thursday and Thursday night,
but only by a few degrees.


Temperatures will moderate more into the weekend as the region
gets on the backside of the surface ridge. Warmer and moister
air returns for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, another cold
front will be nearing or moving through the cwa, bringing a
return to colder temperatures for the latter portion of the
weekend and into early next week.


Widespread restrictions expected through this evening with
improving conditions tonight.

Rain showers will continue off and on this morning due to deep
moisture and weak isentropic lift. Most of the showers should be
light enough for visibilities to remain VFR or MVFR this
morning and mixing should preclude widespread fog development.
Ceilings are IFR or LIFR, but may return to MVFR later this
morning. A cold front will cross the area during the late
afternoon and evening hours with showers expected to increase
in coverage and intensity. There is also potential for
thunderstorms, some of which may contain strong winds. Models
show drier air beginning to push into the area from the west
behind the front by 00Z with the line of showers and
thunderstorms gradually pushing east. Expect decreasing clouds
from the west tonight and a return to VFR by 04Z at all

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions expected to
continue through tonight as a cold front crosses the area.




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