Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211705
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
105 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND WARM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

COLD FRONT AT 16Z OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. FRONT WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AMPLIFIES. FRONT LIKELY TO PUSH INTO
THE MIDLANDS/CSRA LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE APPEARS ROBUST...AND MODERATELY STRONG LIFT EXPECTED.
SHORT WAVE MAY LAG BEHIND FRONT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN LOW AND
SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AROUND DAYBREAK. A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA (FA) AROUND 12Z MONDAY...SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHERN FA IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN
LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
OFFSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND WILL IMPEDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO YIELD LOWS
IN THE 50S MON NT AND TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MAIN E CONUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST CUT OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND. ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SE
CONUS...WHILE GFS HAS A WEAKER ONE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR FLORIDA.
BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH EVENTUALLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. ECMWF QUICKER TO DO SO...ABOUT 24
HRS EARLIER THAN GFS...DUE TO DIFFERING POSITIONS OF UPPER LOW.
HPC PREFERS BLENDED SOLUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. USED BLEND OF
LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS FROM THERE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SO...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...KEEPING MAX TEMPS
DOWN. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SKY MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AT 16Z WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. STRATO-CU
CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR OGB IN THE MORNING.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
THE WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY AS FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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