Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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