Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 210847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
347 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

High pressure extending into the forecast area from the
Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front Monday and the
front will move through the forecast area late Monday night or
Tuesday morning. Showers will be associated with the front
mainly Monday night. Warm conditions will occur through Tuesday.
It will be breezy behind the front Tuesday.


Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast
area from the Atlantic through tonight. There will be upper
ridging in the wake of the shortwave trough shifting off the
Southeast Coast this afternoon. It will remain dry. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast. Wind will be
light with the surface ridge axis in the region.


Upper troughing will begin to affect the region Monday and
moisture will increase. The models display an associated cold
front approaching Monday and moving through the area Monday
night or Tuesday morning. Showers will likely be most
concentrated in an h85 jet the models depict in the forecast
area during the 100 am to 700 am time frame. Coverage may be
greater in the north section associated with a stronger low-
level jet and greater upper support associated with the trough
lifting mainly north of the region. There may be enough cooling
aloft for a few isolated thunderstorms in the northwest
section. The system will be fast moving and the guidance has
been consistent showing light rain amounts of less than one-
quarter of an inch. The temperature guidance may be a little too
low Monday night because of mixing and cloudiness along the
front. The guidance may also be too low after a relatively warm
start behind the front Tuesday. Expect breezy conditions behind
the front Tuesday. The GFS forecast sounding and expected
mixing support gusts near 25 knots. A lake wind advisory may be


Generally tranquil weather with mild temperatures are forecast
during the medium-range period.

The GFS and ECMWF display ridging dominating through Friday.
Moisture may increase Saturday ahead of significant upper
troughing along with an onshore flow directed into the area
south of high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The
GFS and ECMWF MOS plus ensemble mean supports pops 30 to 40
percent Saturday.

The MOS supports temperatures through the period near normal
normal with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 50s to lower


Potential for patchy MVFR fog through 14Z. Otherwise, expect
VFR through the period.

An upper level disturbance crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico
continues to push high level clouds into the area early this
morning, but mainly over the CSRA and portions of the southern
Midlands. Latest observations seem to suggest an increase in shallow
low-level moisture this morning, but only CUB is reporting MVFR
fog so far. Winds will be light and variable as surface high
pressure builds across the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Monday into
Tuesday morning as a cold front crosses the region.




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