Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

289
FXUS62 KCAE 140319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH EMANATING FROM AN
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL STILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
OKLAHOMA. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN MOVING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL HELP LOW DEEPEN AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. THIS WILL
SET UP A COMPLEX SITUATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE LOW BEGINS PUSHING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE MERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION...HOWEVER SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN MAINLY SURROUNDING TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED WITH SOME QUESTIONS STILL SURROUNDING
TIMING...TEMPERATURE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO BEGIN THE
EVENT...THEN AS MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY EXPECT MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AN
SOUTH OF I-20 WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...SNOW NORTH OF I-20.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...WITH ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW OR LESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MID MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
COLUMBIA AND BY NOON ALONG THE NC BORDER. THIS WILL CHANGE ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
NC LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CSRA.
GROUND TEMPERATURES ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AND WITH SOIL
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
ACCUMULATES TO QUICKLY MELT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE MARCHING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALL RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE RAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE FAR WESTERN
MIDLANDS AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAINING
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH A SECONDARY LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DROP A BAND OF
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL DRYING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 8 TO 12
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000
FEET TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.