Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 271745
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE MIDLANDS/PEE DEE WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SUN INTO THE EVENING. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG IN THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE
CUT TODAYS AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
RAISED THE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY
MAINLY MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY....WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND
A WEAK CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
OLD SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
NORTH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING WITH MOISTURE INCREASE...AND
MAINLY RELEGATING BEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND W FA...AND
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE N FA...AS SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY. SO...WILL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS
INCREASING POPS.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT TO A LOW END
HURRICANE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT DRIFTING TO THE NORTH OR
NE THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINITES REGARDING IMPACT FOR
OUR FA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH 22Z THEN BECOMING VFR. EXPECT STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PERSISTANT LEVEL MOISTURE AND NIGHTTIME
COOLING. WINDS WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT SO
SOME FOG IN THE CSRA AND EAST CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS TIL 14Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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