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000
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG.  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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