Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KCAE 301601
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1201 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSRUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. THIS WILL PLACE
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. 500MB
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME HIGH AMPLIFIED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/ALONG
THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PAST RUNS INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS DEPICTING ABOUT 5-6 DAYS AGO...BRINGING A VERY COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT MODEL POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE AS THE RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND SETTLING ON A STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTHWARD SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE POPS
ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY CATEGORY. SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS OF 850MB WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. DO NOT THINK RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL BE MET BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS
WELL AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE MID 30S...ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT
WIND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COLD START WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND +3C TO +5C. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
EVENT IS EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA TO RECORD THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CARVING A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BREEZY
TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.