Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 161325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH MAY WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS HINTING
AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL CHECK WITH 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
DECISION OF A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER
INVERSION BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES...BECOMING A BIT LESS BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 08Z THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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