Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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040
FXUS62 KCAE 281029
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will cross the area today bringing a chance for
thunderstorms. A cold front will move into the area Wednesday and
linger through Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will continue across the region through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level trough is forecast to deepen across the eastern
conus through tonight. A surface trough will cross the area
today. Abundant moisture will continue with precipitable water
values near 2.2 inches. Models indicate strong moisture flux
convergence...upper level divergence and a weak short wave
affecting the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. The
deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast tonight. We
continued likely pops today...decreasing to chance tonight.
Afternoon high temperatures should range from the mid 80s to lower
90s with lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will continue over the eastern conus through
Thursday night. A weak cold front will move into the forecast
area Wednesday and remain in or near the forecast area through
Thursday. Weak to moderate instability combined with surface
convergence will continue the chance for mainly diurnal showers
and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are expected to range
between 1.50 and 2.00 inches. Near normal temperatures are
forecast with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level trough over the eastern conus will is forecast to
flatten by Saturday. A lingering frontal boundary/surface trough
over the region will dissipate by the end of the work week with
the next front approaching over the weekend. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will continue each day with temperatures
at or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Potential for restrictions mainly late morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves
toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or lower
at times.

Some clearing in the CSRA and southeast Midlands early this
morning has resulted in patchy fog. Visibilities should be VFR by
13z-14z at AGS/OGB. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across
central SC and east central Georgia later this morning through the
afternoon. Mid level short wave trough...strong low level
convergence near the front and moderate instability will result in
showers and thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain
threat which may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at
this time. Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z
to 21z can be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift
southeast of the area during the evening but confidence
low. Secondary front will move through overnight with potentially
drier air. However...with low-level moisture still in place...fog
or stratus possible after 06z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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