Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 290616
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP
CHANCES...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND
THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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