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000
FXUS62 KCAE 212353
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased
moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture
will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit
thunderstorm coverage. The thunderstorm chance will increase
Wednesday with developing upper troughing and ahead of an
associated cold front. The front will be in the area Wednesday
night and thursday. It will remain hot ahead of the front
through Wednesday with afternoon heat index values peaking
around 100.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Only a few isolated showers/storms across the central Midlands
this evening, and those will dissipate shortly after sunset with
the loss of heating and continued upper ridging. Nocturnal
cooling and high low-level moisture may lead to fog but coverage
may remain limited because of widespread stratocumulus. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure aloft over the Southeast U.S. will weaken on
Tuesday and give way to an approaching upper level trough and
associated cold front. Precipitable water values will increase
ahead of the cold front which increases the chance of showers
and thunderstorms through Thursday. SPC places a Day 3 Marginal
Risk of severe weather across northeastern SC Wednesday through
Wednesday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian surface high pressure will push into the region Friday
and into the weekend for cooler and drier conditions. A warm
front may lift back into central South Carolina and east central
Georgia by Monday for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few isolated showers north of CAE/CUB moving north, and expected
to dissipate in the near term. Low levels have continued to moisten
slightly with a SE low level wind. Dewpoints continue to trend
higher. Guidance indicating some fog and stratus potential late
tonight into early Tuesday morning.  Relatively little change
expected Tuesday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected
in the afternoon and evening, favoring southern and eastern
areas near a sea breeze boundary.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions to ceilings and
visibilities will be possible through Thursday in mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, and mainly late night/early
morning fog/stratus.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$