Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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322
FXUS61 KCAR 192041
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
341 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift north of the area tonight as a cold
front pushes off to the east. High pressure will build south of
the region on Monday then slide southeast of area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong gusty westerly winds will prevail across the area tonight
as a cold front continues to our east across the Maritimes and
low pressure lifts north through Quebec. Rainshowers across the
north and over the higher elevations to the west may briefly
change over to snow flurries before ending tonight. Otherwise,
the north will remain mostly cloudy and Downeast will have
partial clearing. High pressure will build south of the area on
Monday as a weak upper trough slides across the north. The
trough to the north will bring a mostly cloudy sky over northern
areas and partial cloudiness Downeast. Otherwise, Monday will be
a dry and cold day with a moderate westerly breeze continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure moving across the state will bring
drier weather Mon night into Tue evening. Clear skies Mon night
may yield to an area of mid-level clouds Tue AM into afternoon,
before further clearing Tue evening. However, gradually
increasing clouds are anticipated Tue night as the next period
of disturbed weather approaches. This system appears to be a
somewhat complex event, with an upper-level trough and surface
front coming in from the west, while a low moves in from the
mid-Atlantic.

Snow showers associated with the front currently look likely to
reach the western border by early Wed AM, and spread eastward
across central and northern areas thru the morning. Meanwhile,
rain from the south should reach the coast around or just after
daybreak Wed and spread across Downeast and the Penobscot
Valley, and up into eastern Aroostook by the afternoon. As the
cold front pushes across the state, the bulk of the rain and
snow shower activity looks likely to clear out late, though
isolated activity may linger Wed evening in the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering snow showers will depart Wed night as drier and
colder air moves in on moderate NW winds. Highs for Thanksgiving
will be about 10F lower than Wed and about 5F below normal,
though weak high pressure and upper ridging will allow for some
partly to mostly sunny skies. An upper-level shortwave and
associated reinforcing cold front will cross the area Thu night
into Fri AM, bringing clouds back to the CWA and keeping high
temps similar to Thu. Scattered snow showers are possible with
this reinforcing front, mainly across northern Maine and the
western highlands.

There is good agreement on a broad and deep upper trough moving
over/south of Hudson Bay and then stalling over Quebec for Sat
into early next week. Currently, the most confident time for
precip (snow north, rain/mix south) appears to be Sat PM into
Sat night, with much of the CWA in likely POPs during that time.
Chances for precip will continue into Sun and perhaps beyond,
but will depend highly on the evolution and progression of
shortwave troughs and surface features around the broad upper-
level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions across the north will improve to VFR
tonight and remain VFR on Monday. VFR conditions are expected
Downeast tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tue
evening. Then by 03z Wed, patchy fog may form from KBHB thru
KHUL as onshore winds push moisture inland. Widespread
reductions to MVFR and IFR CIGs and vsbys are expected Wed AM
into Wed evening as rain and snow showers spread across the
state. Improvement to VFR conditions expected Wed night, though
any lingering snow showers could create locally IFR conditions.
VFR expected for all sites Thu into early Thu night, but from
12am Friday into early Fri afternoon, some scattered snow
showers may caused reduced conditions for KPQI to KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will remain up through midnight for
strong westerly winds following the cold frontal passage. Winds
may diminish to SCA late tonight into Monday morning, but may
increase to a gale again Monday afternoon with strong wind gusts
due to cold advection and deep mixing.

SHORT TERM: SCA to possibly Gale W-NW`ly winds winds are
expected Mon night, shifting SW`ly and decreasing some Tue AM.
Patchy fog is possible on moist southerly flow. Seas may also
briefly drop below SCA levels Tue AM, but a quick return to SCA
SW`ly winds and seas is expected for Tue PM into Tue night. Seas
may build into the 7 to 10 ft range Tue night. A shift to fresh
NW`ly winds is expected by Wed afternoon as a front pushes off
the coast, and seas will gradually drop.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/Kredensor
Marine...Bloomer/Kredensor



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