Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281220
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
820 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast
today through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the
Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure
Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:20AM Update...Expanded the Flood Watch northward to the
Longfellow Mtns to include the Moosehead and Baxter regions into
S. Aroostook County. Significant snowpack melt is ongoing with
the potential of 1-2" of additional water combined with 2-2.5
inches of rainfall pose a flood risk in smaller creeks, streams
and smaller rivers in the complex terrain of the Longfellow
Mtns. In addition, this will pose a risk of washouts of dirt
roads and create significant mud issues for travel on those dirt
roads. CBW radar data shows the moderate bands pushing north to
the terrain and VCP215 seems to be doing a decent job with
radar estimates as ground truth shows 0.25-0.5 inch so far. No
other major changes with this update.

Previous discussion:
A long fetch of moisture is evident on water vapor satellite
pictures this morning originating from the the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.   The air mass is quite moist with precipitable water values
on the soundings last evening approaching an inch at both Gray and
Caribou.  Waves of low pressure are expected to track along a
stalled frontal boundary lifting north across Maine today and
tonight.  The heaviest of the rain is expected across the southeast
third of the FA with lighter rain to north and west of Baxter State
Park.  When it is not raining, there will likely be drizzle and fog.
The fog has been dense tonight and there should be some improvement
in the visibility today, although across hills low clouds will
make it to the ground with very poor visibility. The combo of
high dew points above freezing and snowmelt will lead to
continued fog through tonight, but probably not as dense as
early this morning as a north wind picks up a bit during the
night. Highs today will be in the 40s, and will be the coolest
right along the coast owing to ocean temps around 40F. Lows
tonight will mainly be in the 30s. Just enough cold air aloft
may work in after midnight that the rain may mix with or change
to wet snow, mainly across the higher terrain in northern
Piscataquis County, and along and near the Quebec border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A negatively tilted trough pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will support low pressure tracking southeast of Cape Cod on
Friday. Deep moisture lifting north of this low will continue to
undergo dynamic lift producing rainfall across the area. Low
level thicknesses across some central areas will be dropping to
near 1300 at 1000/850 which indicates there may be enough cold
air over some of the higher elevations over the central part of
our region for some wet snow. Low pressure will track toward
central Nova Scotia Friday night as the air over our region
continues to cool just a bit. This will likely result in a
change over to snow where precipitation is still occurring,
mainly over the central and eastern parts of the region. At this
point the trough axes will be shifting to our east and
precipitation will be diminishing. However, a few inches of snow
may be possible, especially over the higher elevations.
Precipitation will taper off on Saturday as the low continues to
move away and high pressure builds in bringing partial
clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in Saturday night bringing a
mostly clear and seasonably cold night with lows in the low to mid
20s. Surface high pressure will remain to our west on Sunday.
However, a weak upper trough will be crossing the area likely
resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky and some isolated snow
showers over the north. High pressure to our northwest in
combination with lower pressure to the east will maintain a dry
northwesterly flow on Monday with seasonable temperatures. High
pressure will continue to build over on Tuesday bringing a partly
cloudy and dry day with light winds.

Our focus going into mid-week will be on a trough of low pressure
and storm system approaching from the Midwest that has the potential
to bring another significant snowstorm to parts of the area. A
trough centered over the Great Lakes will carry low pressure into
the Ohio Valley on Tuesday while high pressure remains over our
region. Primary low pressure will track into the Eastern Great Lakes
Tuesday night as a secondary low pressure forms over Southern New
England. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday night and a breeze
will increase from the southeast. Snow will likely overspread the
area Wednesday with rain possible along the coast. There is
potential for significant snow late Wednesday through Wednesday
evening inland as low pressure slowly tracks into the Gulf of Maine.
Low pressure will remain over the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday
night into Thursday as it occludes and slowly weakens. Precipitation
over our area will gradually taper down to snow showers Thursday
with some spotty snow showers still possible Friday as the occluding
low remains to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at the terminals
today and tonight in low clouds and fog.  Rain will fall much of the
time, and when it is not raining there will be areas of drizzle.
The rain may mix with or change to snow late in the day Friday
at KFVE. Light and variable wind today, becoming N around 10
knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...IFR. N wind.

Friday night...IFR, improving to MVFR Then VFR south late. Gusty
NW wind.

Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. Gusty NW wind.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR. Light W wind.

Sunday night into Monday. VFR. Light NW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The seas will continue to subside on the coastal
waters today, but will remain 4 to 6 ft this morning. As a gale
watch has been issued for Friday into Saturday have elected to
drop the current SCA.

SHORT TERM:
A gale will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday
morning for winds gusting up to 35 kt. A SCA may need to follow
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Winds should then be
below SCA Sunday through early next week. Seas will build up to
10 ft late Friday night into Saturday then gradually subside
through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains over the next several day will accelerate snowmelt over
the area. The snowpack is not quite ripe for melt yet, but with
heavy rainfall and somewhat saturated soils, standing water could be
an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north,
main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input.
However the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk
for reaching minor flood level late this week/early next week
respectively. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some
points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far
north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the
ice on the Saint John. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the Central Highlands into interior Downeast through
the day on Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-031-032.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/Sinko/CB
Marine...Bloomer/Sinko/CB
Hydrology...


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