Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251306
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
906 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken
and shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track
across the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area
Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes for the 930 update...

Original...
High pressure will continue to affect the region today through
Tuesday. Expecting clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds and
daytime temps around 90.


See climate section below for the records for today and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A pattern changes will bring an end to near record warmth during the
middle of the week. A weak cold front will slide east across the
forecast area on Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeast from the
northern Great Lakes and deepens through Ontario/Quebec. Models
continue a drying trend with the frontal passage, and have opted for
only slight chance pops during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures
will be a bit tricky for Wednesday, contingent on the timing of the
frontal passage across the area and the coverage of any precip. For
now, have split the difference with a consensus raw guidance/MOS
guidance blend, which yields highs in the low to mid 80s across the
area. As cooler air filters in behind the front Wednesday night,
lows will begin to return to more seasonable numbers, with mid 50s
expected. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday night through
Thursday night as surface high pressure slides across the region,
with 850mb CAA and steadily falling 500mb heights. Highs on Thursday
will remain in the mid/upper 60s across most of the area, with lows
Thursday night in the upper 40s/low 50s, fairly in line with normal
values. &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A transitional weather pattern that saw a return to near normal
conditions mid week will continue with a flip to below normal
temperatures and increased precip chances next weekend. A strong
shortwave will dive south through the Great Lakes Friday, with a
surface low and attendant cold front pushing through the forecast
area through Friday night. This will be accompanied by a seasonably
cool Canadian airmass, with 850mb temps falling into the 0C to +3C
range across the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Highs on Friday will
only reach the mid/upper 60s, with low/mid 60s on Saturday.
Continued with slight chance/low chance pops Friday through
Saturday, especially across NE OH and NW PA, where lake enhanced
rain showers are possible into Saturday night. Surface high pressure
will build rather quickly eastward across the region Saturday night
into Sunday, with return flow setting up by Sunday, with rising mid
level heights and 850mb temps into early next week, with a
subsequent return to near or slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A transitional weather pattern that saw a return to near normal
conditions mid week will continue with a flip to below normal
temperatures and increased precip chances next weekend. A strong
shortwave will dive south through the Great Lakes Friday, with a
surface low and attendant cold front pushing through the forecast
area through Friday night. This will be accompanied by a seasonably
cool Canadian airmass, with 850mb temps falling into the 0C to +3C
range across the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Highs on Friday will
only reach the mid/upper 60s, with low/mid 60s on Saturday.
Continued with slight chance/low chance pops Friday through
Saturday, especially across NE OH and NW PA, where lake enhanced
rain showers are possible into Saturday night. Surface high pressure
will build rather quickly eastward across the region Saturday night
into Sunday, with return flow setting up by Sunday, with rising mid
level heights and 850mb temps into early next week, with a
subsequent return to near or slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass continue across the
region today and tonight. Will continue with a possibility of
morning fog at KTOL and will go with MVFR conditions with IFR in
a tempo group 09-13Z. Will also bring a lake breeze into KCLE
and KERI early this afternoon similar to Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog Tuesday
morning. Non- VFR possible Wednesday evening/Thursday in
shra/tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will usher
in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake.
Non-VFR possible Friday with secondary front.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet period on the lake through at least Wednesday morning, as high
pressure keeps winds light over the lake. Onshore flow will set up
during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday as a lake breeze
develops. A cold front will push across the lake Wednesday
afternoon, with winds increasing out of the north 10-15 knots
Wednesday night. There could be some waves in the 3-5 ft range for a
brief time Wednesday night, but confidence is on the low side for
small craft conditions at this point. Winds will gradually subside
as high pressure builds across the lake Thursday and Thursday night.
Another cold front and accompanying surface low will move across the
lake on Friday, with west winds becoming northerly in the 10-15 knot
range by Friday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Upcoming records for today and Tuesday 25TH/26TH:

TOL 91/1891 92/1998

CAK 92/1908 89/1900

MFD 88/2007 87/1998

CLE 88/2007 91/1998

ERI 89/1933 89/1998

YNG 91/2007 89/1934

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt
CLIMATE...



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