Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 6 AM WILL BE IN THE TOLEDO AREA AND OVER THE LAKE. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO INDICATE THAT. BECAUSE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS UPWARD. THE CLOUDS WERE A LITTLE
THIN OVER NW PA...BUT THEY SHOULD THICKEN BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE THAT CLOSES
OFF AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL
ENOUGH TO MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING/CHANGING AS
QUICKLY AS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH CHILLY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NOT THE BEST EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREAT OR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.

THE NORTH FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE RELATIVELY WARM ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING JUST ABOUT ANYBODY COULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SUCH A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT THE
SYNOPTIC SHOWERS OFTEN LAST LONGER THAN THE MODELS THINK. THE
NORTH WIND WILL PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-75
CORRIDOR (NW OHIO). THE BAST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. AS ALWAYS THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT HAS TO SNOW HARD TO
STICK. WILL PUT IN SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MANSFIELD
(AN INCH OR TWO).

IT WILL BE HARD TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT
CONTINUE TO GET PRECIP. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND -9C
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER NE OH/NW PA ALTHOUGH WITH ANY LUCK WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NW OHIO TO THE
UPPER 30S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WOULD BE
ACROSS NW OHIO.  MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER THIS THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.  ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AS THE REGION AWAITS THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WAS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AHEAD OF IT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE STEADIER RAINS ARRIVE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ERIE AREA FOR SHOWERS TO ARRIVE BY MID
MORNING AS CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE INCREASES.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE LIKELY. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD BUT MAY REACH KCLE AND KMFD
BY LATE EVENING.

CHANCES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH 06Z ON SATURDAY. HAVE
ONLY PLACED A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NW OHIO FOR THE LATE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY THEN PERSISTING OVER
NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK W-NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY...DRAGGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTH 35 KNOT GALES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AND
THEREFORE THE WATCH. AT A MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED WHERE THERE IS NOT GALES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN






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