Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO CALM WINDS
AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM
MI WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH
MORNING...WHICH COULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE
AREAS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE PRECIP CHANCE. MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DIFFICULT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. WITH THE MAIN FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY WILL BE ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE
ZONES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WE SEE MORE WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
MORE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN MOST AREAS...AND A WEAK SE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST WITH
MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING (H700 10C). FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT OUT
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IS A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS GIVEN ONGOING NW FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUT
ALL POPS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY APPROACHING 90.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TUE
THEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME FOR WED TO ALLOW A BETTER THREAT FOR
TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL TUE AND WED.

THE MODELS DIFFER FOR THU AND FRI ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU OR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE  WITH THE FRONT. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP GOING FOR
FRI ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS MAY TRY AND SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN SOME PLACES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT THE INLAND TAF SITES AFT 08Z AND SOME MVFR FOG AT CLE
AND ERI. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z MOST
PLACES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO MVFR CIGS UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.

ENOUGH UPPER TROUGHING STILL EXISTS IN THE FAR EAST TO HELP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS AT YNG BUT IT IS STILL UNDER 30% SO MAY JUST MENTION
VCSH STARTING AROUND 18Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NE WINDS OFF OF LERI SHOULD HAVE A DAMPING EFFECT ON
THE CU FIELD SO ERI AND CLE SHOULD SEE SCT OR LESS CU IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO AGAIN
DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND MOST SITES WILL LIKELY SEE IFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG AND THEN NON VFR POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.



&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THRU SUN SO EXPECT
AN E TO NE WIND OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME...TURNING MORE TO
THE SOUTH FOR MON THRU WED. WAVES SHOULD MOSTLY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET THRU
SUN THEN DECREASE TO 2 FEET OR LESS AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH BY
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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