Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230425
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1125 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move to the middle
Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon. High pressure will briefly
ridge into the region on Tuesday. The next storm system will move
into the Central Great Lakes from the Plains on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Added a dense fog advisory for Erie and Ashtabula lakeshore and
extreme NW PA. Frontal boundary has sagged south off the lake
causing dense fog near the Erie lakeshore. Visibilities may well
go up and down with the boundary.

Original discussion...
Surface low should be in nrn GA by 00z and will move slowly to
wrn NC by 12Z Monday. East to southeast flow aloft will increase
overnight increasing moisture into the region. Expect clouds to
continue to fill in through the evening hours. Through the evening
hours followed the HRRR in bringing chance pops into the area from
the southeast. Overnight followed the GFS trends with pops
increasing to likely eastern two thirds of the area. Lows mostly
in the mid 40s but coolest in the northwest where cooler air could
sneak into the area with stationary front waffling nearby.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will move from western NC to off the mid atlantic
coast by late afternoon. The low will continue northeast off the
New England coast through Tuesday night. deep moisture will
continue to spread into the area from the east and southeast ahead
of the low through the day Monday before beginning to pull east
Monday night into Tuesday. Will have categorical pops most places
Monday. Monday night pops will decrease west to east as the low
pulls further away falling to just chance pops east by morning
Tuesday. Tuesday evening should be dry east however another system
will be moving out of Missouri. Models differ on track with the
NAM taking the low to near South Bend by morning Wednesday while
the GFS has the low centered over northern Lake Michigan. Both
models however have a swath of moisture moving into the area from
the west with a warm front overnight Tuesday night. Will cover
with chance pops. Wednesday the system moves through the central
lakes. A cold front will move through and wrap around moisture
will overspread the area. Will have chance pops increasing from
the northwest mainly in the afternoon. Wednesday night will
continue with chance pops for rain mixing with snow from the
northwest during the night most places and will have likely pops
northeast for flow off the lake. Not really cold enough for lake
effect but we could see limited lake enhancement as 850mb temps
drop to -6C by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active northwest flow pattern expected during the long term period
Thursday through Sunday. More seasonable temperatures expected
beginning Thursday with highs in the mid/upper 30s. A shot of colder
air will move in Friday and persist through Sunday, with 850mb temps
in the -10C to -13C range. Highs Friday in the low/mid 30s and highs
Saturday/Sunday in the upper 20s/low 30s currently forecasted.
Prolonged lake effect snow is likely across portions of the snowbelt
during this period, with several disturbances rotating through the
area bringing more widespread snow chances Thursday afternoon
through Friday night and again Saturday night through Sunday night.
Forecast is characterized with chance/slight chance pops through
most of the period, with some likely pops across the snowbelt.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Some light showers have worked their way across the eastern third
to half of the area. Not sure how much of this precip actually
reached the ground as cigs remain mainly mid level. Did some fine
tuning to the precip TAF package. Precip should arrive/develop
overnight with cigs becoming MVFR then IFR with the steadier
precip. Fog close to the lake will persist and places like ERI
and TOL will likely be IFR the entire period. Expect the precip to
begin to diminish from west to east late today. VSBYs should
rebound some but the stratus will persist. NE to E flow will
continue. Speeds may increase a little after daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Widespread Non-VFR likely persisting on Tuesday across
NE OH/NW PA. Non-VFR returns to the area on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will continue to increase across Lake Erie tonight
as a low pressure system tracks from the lower Mississippi valley
towards the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds will be in the 15 to 25 range
late tonight through Monday evening, before decreasing and backing
northerly by Tuesday morning. Will be hoisting a Small Craft
Advisory for portions of the lake from the Islands east through
Conneaut with waves increasing to 3-5 feet with the prolonged long
fetch despite marginal wind speeds. Winds will increase from the
southwest Wednesday as low pressure tracks through the central
Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ003-006-007-
     089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LEZ143>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Greenawalt



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