Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 301751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Low pressure near Cincinnati will slowly move north into lower
Michigan by Sunday then shift off to the northeast Monday. High
pressure will shift east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday
then a cold front will move into the area later Thursday into Friday.


trimmed back pops somewhat for the afternoon. Band over NW PA will
gradually lift NE with just scattered showers over NE OH/NW PA the
remainder of the afternoon. Expect band over Central Ohio to lift
into SWRN counties so kept likely pops there.

original discussion...
With little movement in the weather pattern there will be little
change in today`s weather from yesterday. Will stay with good chance
pops for shra and some tsra today with better threat generally
shifting toward the west half of the cwa. With lack of strong
convection potential...heavy rainfall threat limited which should
limit flooding threat.

Highs today will only rise about 5 to 10 degrees with most places
seeing mid to upper 60s.


The upper and surface low finally starts moving slowly north tonight
thru Sat and should be near dtw by Sun morning. A wedge of slightly
drier air is pulled north into the area tonight into Sat morning
which should lessen the coverage of shra for a while but then
daytime heating by Sat afternoon is expected to cause more numerous
shra and some tsra to redevelop. The models differ on how much
activity lingers Sat night which brings more uncertainty into the

The upper forcing still appears too strong on Sun to not end up with
numerous shra/possible tsra so will increase pops Sun into Sun
night. There is still some upper energy present in the ne on Mon for
at least a chc for shra...aided by enhancement from lake erie. Will
introduce slight chc pops for nw pa the first half Mon night but
after that dry conditions should finally take control.

Day to day temps will show little change thru Monday. Monday night
should be the coolest night as skies begin to clear with lows from
the upper 40s to lower 50s.


High pressure looks to be ridging into the area from Eastern Canada
on Tuesday but will slide of the New England coast on Tuesday. This
will allow a southeast to south wind to develop ahead of the next
cold front that will approach the area from the Plains. The eastward
movement of this front may be impacted by a hurricane that may be
moving up the East Coast of the US Thursday into Friday. So
naturally the models are struggling with the strength and timing of
the front into the area. Have added slight chance to chance pops for
Thursday into Thursday night but confidence is low.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the long term.
Highs should be in the lower to middle 70s.


.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Trying to time the areas of rain rotating around low pressure in
the Ohio Valley will remain problematic. Expect the current swath
of rain over central Ohio to slide across northwest Ohio though
the evening. Additional showers are expected to develop tonight
across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA. Ceilings will
remain MVFR during the showers with local IFR visibilities and
ceilings during the heaviest showers. Will not mention thunder in
the TAF forecasts but cannot rule it out. Ceilings and
visibilities may improve to VFR for a while late today and early
tonight but MVFR/IFR stratus will redevelop in some areas early
Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into


Easterly winds remain high enough this morning to leave the Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) up for the entire lakeshore. Winds still look
like they will decrease by the afternoon. A little uncertainty if
the 10am end across the east is too early. Will let the next shift
take another look and extend if needed. Winds and waves wont
decrease on the west end until evening at the earliest.

As the upper level low drifts back to the north it will allow the
pressure gradient to relax. Winds will also shift to a southerly
direction at some point on Saturday. As the low reaches NY state on
Sunday winds should shift to the southwest. High pressure begins to
ridge onto the lake from Canada on Monday with a northerly wind


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>147.


LONG TERM...Mullen
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