Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AND THEN E TO SE ON THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KERI AND KCLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK






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