Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221712
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to move in from the west today becoming
centered over the area tonight into Thursday night. A cold front
will move through late Friday night into Saturday with high
pressure building back in towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Drier air starting to mix in in the West. Clouds will gradually
scatter out but it will be late into the afternoon when the
850mb ridge finally builds in.

Original Discussion...
A band of rain and snow will exit to the east of the area by 5
AM. No snowfall accumulation will occur with this initial band
of precipitation. Winds have come around to the northwest and
north-northwest, which will allow for some minor lake-effect
snow showers/flurries to develop early this morning from near
Lorain County eastward. A shallow inversion is in place, topping
out around 5000 feet near Cleveland and 6000 feet near Erie,
PA. This will continue to lower as we head into the morning
hours. There is little moisture available in the snow growth
zone, so just expecting some flurries or light snow showers
through the morning hours with little to no accumulation most
areas. Some flurries will likely make their way well into the
Secondary Snowbelt.

The hills of northwest Pennsylvania have a better chance at
seeing some minor accumulations from this morning into this
afternoon. Generally an inch or less of snow accumulation is
expected.

Western areas will see the low clouds break up later this
morning with some high clouds moving in during the afternoon.
Areas downwind of Lake Erie will see low clouds stick around
much of the day, but they should start to break up in the
Cleveland area by late this afternoon. They will stick around
all day into tonight across far northeast OH into northwest PA.
Highs this afternoon will generally be in the mid-30s with lows
tonight falling into the middle and upper 20s.

High pressure moves in from the southwest tonight, bringing an
end to any lingering lake-effect snow showers. High pressure at
the surface will remain in control for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Expect highs Thursday to rise into the middle 30s across inland
northwest PA and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. A partly
to mostly cloudy sky is expected with clouds breaking up across
western areas by the late afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday night but it will be
dry for most locations. However there could be a few snow showers
around Erie. We will then see a warming trend with most locations
reaching 45 to 50 degrees. Unfortunately when it gets warm this time
of year it is typically accompanied by gusty south to southwest
winds. The cold front will cross the region late Friday night into
Saturday morning. This front may not have all that much moisture to
lift until it interacts with Lake Erie. So that will produce the
best chances of precipitation across NE OH into NW PA. Rain should
change over to all snow as we approach midnight Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As an upper level trough passes Saturday night into Sunday morning
we expect a period of lake effect snow to develop. Current thinking
lingers the snow showers into early Monday morning across NW PA.
Accumulations are expected but still enough uncertainty to keep us
from mentioning amounts at this point in time. High pressure takes
control of the region by Monday afternoon but quickly moves off the
Middle Atlantic Coast on Tuesday. This will allow the next storm
system to move into the Western Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Sunday will be the cold day of the long term with highs in the 30s.
Warmer Monday with highs in the 40s. All locations should reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Clouds starting to break up in the west as drier air mixes in.
Will be late afternoon/early evening before the 850mb ridge
builds in and scatters cloud. Mid level clouds move in overnight
ahead of next system. Northwest flow will turn to the south
after sunset.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come
Saturday as another cold front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...Updated the lake forecast to boost current conditions.
Getting observations winds are closer to 15 to 25 and waves on
the south shore up to 6 feet in places. Will however continue
the expectation of diminishing conditions as the high builds
into the area.
Original...Winds will continue to decrease on Lake Erie as
high pressure ridges into the area from the Middle Mississippi
River Valley. The northwesterly winds will continue strong
enough to keep waves in the 3 to 5 foot range from Vermilion to
Ripley. The larger waves lingering longest from Geneva-on-the-
lake to Ripley. High pressure will be short lived as the the
next weak frontal boundary moves across the area Thursday night.
The next storm system to impact the lake will be over the
weekend. Southwesterly winds will increase Friday night into
Saturday and may reach small craft advisory levels, greater than
21 knots, early Saturday. A small craft advisory will
definitely be needed in the wake of a cold front Saturday
afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK/Mullen


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