Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AS A WEAK TOUGH ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME SHEARED TODAY AND SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA. A FEW NEW SHOWERS/TS WILL POP UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND BUT AGAIN THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HAVE
WORDED THE FORECAST AS SCATTERED WITH PRECIP CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN
30 TO 50 PERCENT. WESTERN AREAS MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUN BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CLUSTER CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO BE DRY.

THE TREND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/TS CHANCES WITH
THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND NO FEATURE TO FOCUS CONVECTION WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP MENTIONED. MODELS HINT AT EITHER A
STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OR A WEAK TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND MONDAY. MAY
THIS BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER/TS? THE RIDGE WEAKENS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION...AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD THOUGH...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S COMMON. NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BUT WITH 5H HEIGHTS SO HIGH IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. DID ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
GRIDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN
AT 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SHEARING AND SLIDING EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT AT ANY
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FORECAST. DEW POINTS HAVE COME
UP AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG AT
DAYBREAK. MOST PLACES WILL DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY WITH A FEW
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT VISIBILITY AT EACH TAF FORECAST SITE. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO
LATE MORNING AS THE CUMULUS DECK DEVELOPS AND LIFTS. A GENERAL
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND MAY AFFECT KERI.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE OVER LAKE ERIE AFTER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TODAY. THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SAG ONTO THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT EVEN IF IT DOES THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AS A LAKE BREEZE
NUDGES WINDS TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN



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