Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020510
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT IS ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT YOU CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS
STILL ADVERTISING MORE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WILL HAVE
20 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED THIS EVENING AND IF THEY HAVE A
PERIOD OF CLEARING. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE...LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOWS A
SURFACE TROF MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AM
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE AREA ROUGHLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A MNN-CLE-ERI LINE ALTHOUGH WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS WEST AS WELL. WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH FALLING POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE TO OUR EAST WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE KCLE
AND POINTS EAST. SUNDAY WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CHANCE INTO THE
MORNING BUT THEN DRY THINGS OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE DRY MONDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
STARTING ON TUESDAY.   GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
SLOWER AND NOW PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.  FOR
THE FORECAST TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.  EITHER WAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WARM UP.
WILL ALSO ALLOW NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.   ECMWF MOVES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE THE CENTRAL
LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS FOR FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TSRA LINGER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ERODE ALLOWING BR TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR. IN AREAS WHERE TSRA DEVELOPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE BREEZES WILL TURN TO A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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