Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 060141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS
SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS



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