Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 301409
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1009 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
a pleasant summer day is in store for the area with just some
high clouds associated with an upper level vorticity center that
is crossing the region. the vort center is clearly shown on the
water vapor imagery. current temperature forecast looks reasonable
with minor changes.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day. Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.
Overnight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across the area Friday.
Outlook...A chance of -shra Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front across the forecast area.
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon. Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon. North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria. High pressure builds in again Saturday