Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281902
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TONIGHT. SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE NIGHT SO THERE
SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS 35 TO 40 FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST WHERE LOWER 40S SHOULD BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP DUE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN TURN EAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL OVER THE AREA ON WED
THEN AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE...SHRA SHOULD START TO BREAK OUT
IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WED THEN SPREAD EAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHILE BECOMING QUITE NUMEROUS.

PATCHY MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI. WITH THE UPPER
LOW ONLY SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST...EXPECT LINGERING SHRA TO HANG
AROUND THE AREA THRU FRI SO WILL SHOW A GRADUAL TAPERING DOWN OF THE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE...WILL LOWER
HIGHS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY PRECIPITATION WISE.
TEMPERATURE WISE IT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME LITTLE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE QPF BUT
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IT DRY...FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE.

CONFIDENCE GETS BETTER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT EVEN THEN SOME TIMING
ISSUES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY BY
DARK. JUST WATCHING SOME CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE INTO NW PA AROUND DARK
AND OVER NW OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE...NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
IT WILL WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CAROLINAS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
MODEL IS THE STRONGEST OF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE WINDS...IF THAT
WAS CORRECT MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
OVERDONE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BY SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN A LITTLE
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA









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